美国股市周二逆全球趋势下跌，此前美国再次出现出乎意料的高通胀，引发债券收益率飙升，并助长了利率可能比预期更快上升的预期。
US stocks bucked the global trend and fell on Tuesday, after another bout of surprisingly hot US inflation sparked a surge in bond yields and stoked expectations that interest rates might rise more quickly than envisaged.
这抵消了油价跌至两个月低点的影响，并掩盖了围绕英伟达争议以及Anthropic计划公开上市的重大AI相关进展。今日关键阅读今日谈话要点：英伟达 围绕英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋与一名涉嫌中国间谍个人关系的非同寻常事件，继续严重拖累该公司股价，该股周二再跌5.5%。这使其从10月6日的历史高点累计下跌31%。换句话说，短短一个月内，市值蒸发了约1.7万亿美元。
This offset the decline in oil prices to a two-month low, and overshadowed big AI-related developments surrounding the Nvidia controversy and Anthropic's planned public listing. Today's Key Reads Today's Talking Points: Nvidia The extraordinary story around Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's personal relationship with an alleged Chinese spy continues to weigh heavily on the company's share price, which tumbled another 5.5% on Tuesday. That takes its total decline from the all-time high on October 6 to 31%. Or put another way, around $1.7 trillion of market cap lost in barely a month.
但考虑到英伟达在华尔街的创纪录影响力，更非同寻常的是，更广泛的市场表现得如此坚挺。10月6日，英伟达股票、纳斯达克指数和标准普尔500指数均创下历史新高。如果有人告诉你，英伟达股票将在一个多月内下跌超过30%，你会预期纳斯达克下跌幅度不足10%，标准普尔500指数仅下跌4%吗？不太可能。
But bearing in mind Nvidia's record footprint on Wall Street, it's also extraordinary how well the wider market has held up. On October 6, Nvidia shares, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit all-time highs. If you were told that Nvidia shares would then fall more than 30% in just over a month, would you expect the Nasdaq to be down less than 10% and the S&P 500 just 4% lower? Unlikely.
IPO，IPO，去上班吧 我们终于有了Anthropic的IPO估值：1.4万亿美元。这是价格区间的上限，基于完全稀释基础，包括股票期权和限制性股票等证券。或者，在不稀释基础上，排除这些证券，Anthropic基于拟议发行的市值约为1万亿美元。这与近几周一些高达2万亿美元的亢奋估计相比，下降幅度相当可观。
IPO, IPO, it's off to work we go We finally have the Anthropic IPO valuation: $1.4 trillion. That's the top of the price range, on a fully diluted basis including securities such as stock options and restricted stock. Or, on a non-diluted basis excluding those securities, Anthropic's market value based on its proposed float would be about $1 trillion. That's quite a considerable fall from some of the more giddy estimates in recent weeks of up to $2 trillion.
无论如何，鉴于近期的动荡，这对投资者的AI投资意愿来说都是一次巨大的考验。在这个环境下上市，同样可以被视为勇敢或愚蠢，需求能否持续，目前无法断言。上周四的崩盘，尤其是芯片股的崩盘，令人震惊，笼罩在英伟达头上的阴云短期内似乎也不会散去。另一方面，科技板块在某种程度上已经清理干净，市场也不那么泡沫化了。是时候重新入场了吗？
Either way, it's a huge test of investors' AI appetite right now given the recent turmoil. Going public in this environment can equally be seen as brave or foolish, and it's impossible to say how demand will hold up. Last Thursday's meltdown, especially in chip stocks, was eye-watering, and the cloud hanging over Nvidia doesn't look like it will lift any time soon. On the other hand, the tech decks have been cleared, to some degree, and the market is less frothy. Time to get back in?
美联储理事沃勒 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周二震动了金融市场，称如果10月份CPI通胀数据偏热，他可能支持下个月加息50个基点，而几小时后数据确实如此。这并非沃勒近几个月来第一次发出沟通上的意外信号——9月份他仍希望“给通胀下行一个机会”，但也指出特定的月度通胀水平可能成为加息的触发点。
Off the Waller Fed Governor Christopher Waller rocked financial markets on Tuesday, saying he could favor a 50 bps rate hike next month if the October CPI inflation data came in hot, which they duly did a few hours later. This isn't Waller's first communications curveball in recent months — in September he still wanted to "give disinflation a chance" but also pinpointed specific monthly inflation levels as a potential trigger for raising rates.
沃勒的言论很重要，因为他被认为是联邦公开市场委员会最有影响力的成员之一，与主席关系密切，并反映了共识观点。但他最近经历了一段相当曲折的历程。他去年7月和今年1月曾投赞成票支持放松政策，并在3月20日表示，如果劳动力市场疲软，他可以设想今年晚些时候投票支持降息。现在，他将异常大幅的50个基点加息提上了议程。明天什么可能会影响市场？
Waller's comments matter, because he is considered one of the most influential members of the FOMC, close to the chair, and reflective of the consensus view. But he has been on quite a journey lately. He dissented in favor of easing policy in July last year and January this year, and said on March 20 he could envisage voting to cut rates later this year if the labor market weakened. Now, he's putting outsized 50 bps rate hikes on the table. What could move markets tomorrow?