温和派人士希望在2027年总统选举中，有极右翼与极左翼对决之外的选择。柔道冠军泰迪·里内尔已入选，而克里斯蒂娜·拉加德则可能性较低。
Centrists want alternatives to a matchup between the far right and far left in the 2027 presidential election. Teddy Riner, the judo champion, is in, while Christine Lagarde is less likely.
本周，柔道冠军、也是法国最受欢迎的运动员之一的泰迪·里内尔宣布参选总统，这更像是一种受欢迎的消遣，而非改变游戏规则的举动。尽管里内尔先生37岁，颇具吸引力，但他不太可能赢得明年春天接替埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统的竞选。
When Teddy Riner, a judo champion and one of France’s most popular athletes, announced this week that he would run for president, it was less a game changer than a welcome diversion. For all of his appeal, Mr. Riner, 37, is unlikely to win the race to replace President Emmanuel Macron next spring.
然而，他这场不切实际的参选揭示了法国总统竞选的一个残酷真相。距离选民投票还有五个月，许多人渴望，甚至迫切希望出现一张新面孔，来打破一场看起来似乎正顺利通向法国自二战以来首个极右翼政府当选的竞选。
Yet his quixotic candidacy reveals a hard truth about France’s presidential campaign. Five months before voters go to the polls, many are eager, even desperate, for a fresh face to upend a race that looks increasingly as if it’s on a glide path to the election of France’s first far-right government since World War II.
主要极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞几个月来一直在所有对手中保持着压倒性领先——几周以来，伴随暴力的抗议活动动摇了法国，这一领先优势只会更加巩固。最突出的中右翼候选人爱德华·菲利普在民调中已失色，因为骚乱加剧了极右翼呼吁法律与秩序以及左翼呼吁社会正义的吸引力。
The main far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, has held a commanding lead over all her rivals for months — a lead that has only been reinforced by weeks of protests, marred by violence, that have shaken France. The most prominent center-right candidate, Édouard Philippe, has faded in the polls as the unrest has sharpened the appeal of far-right calls for law and order and left-wing calls for social justice.
这场动荡的另一个受益者是极左翼激进分子让-吕克·梅朗雄，他现在似乎是最有可能在法国两轮投票制中进入第二轮、与勒庞女士对决的候选人。就目前情况来看，法国选民将面临政治光谱两极之间的选择。
Another beneficiary of the upheaval is a far-left firebrand, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who now appears to be the likeliest candidate to advance into a second round against Ms. Le Pen in France’s two-round system. As things currently stand, French voters would be confronted with a choice between two poles of the political spectrum.
民调机构Toluna France副主任让-丹尼尔·列维表示，中间派选民“害怕面临玛丽娜·勒庞和让-吕克·梅朗雄之间的对决”。他说，这些选民是“孤儿选民”，缺乏一位鼓舞人心的候选人，并且“仍在寻找某人”。
Centrist voters are “afraid of being confronted with a duel between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” said Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Toluna France, a polling firm. These voters, he said, are an “orphan electorate,” lacking an inspiring candidate, and are “still looking for someone.”
巴黎左倾研究机构让-饶勒斯基金会的分析师拉斐尔·洛尔卡表示，对“白衣骑士”的寻找显示了“中间派阵营的恐慌”。他补充说：“很明显，大选正在从他们手中溜走。”让中间派失望者心动的不只有里内尔的名字。法国律师、前财政部长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德上月宣布辞去欧洲央行行长职务，称希望获得自由以对政治辩论发表意见。她已排除竞选总统的可能性，但这并未阻止法国报纸猜测她可能仍会加入竞争。
Raphaël LLorca, an analyst at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, a left-leaning research group in Paris, said the search for a white knight showed “the panic of the centrist bloc.”He added, “It is clear that the election is slipping away from them.”Mr. Riner’s name is not the only one tantalizing frustrated centrists. Christine Lagarde, a French lawyer and former finance minister, announced her resignation as president of the European Central Bank last month, saying she wanted the freedom to weigh in on political debates. She has ruled out a run for the presidency, but that hasn’t stopped French newspapers from speculating that she might still join the race.
前外交部长、前总理多米尼克·德·维尔潘正在权衡是否参选。他在2003年宣布法国拒绝参加美国主导的伊拉克入侵。中左翼前总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德也在考虑参选。他于2017年卸任时，支持率为1958年法国现行政治体制即第五共和国建立以来历任总统中最低。
Dominique de Villepin, a former foreign minister and prime minister who declared France’s refusal to join the American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, is weighing a bid. So is François Hollande, a center-left former president who left office in 2017 with the lowest approval rating of any president since France’s current system of government, known as the Fifth Republic, was founded in 1958.
在已宣布参选的人选中，另外两位新面孔近期在民调中迅速上升：戛纳市长大卫·利斯纳尔，一位拥有精致社交媒体形象的社会保守派自由市场主义者；以及欧洲议会左倾议员拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼，他最近在中间偏左阵营候选人的初选中获胜。他们共同的特点是，两人都未曾为马克龙工作过，而马克龙在其任期最后几个月里，其不受欢迎程度已与奥朗德相提并论。
Among declared candidates, two other fresh faces have recently spiked in the polls: David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, a socially conservative free marketeer with a slick social media profile; and Raphaël Glucksmann, a left-leaning member of the European Parliament, who recently won a primary among candidates on the center left. What they have in common is that neither worked for Mr. Macron, who, in his waning months in office, is rivaling Mr. Hollande for unpopularity.
三位最具根基的中间偏右候选人——菲利普、加布里埃尔·阿塔尔和布鲁诺·勒塔约——都曾在马克龙政府中担任要职。分析人士表示，在一场以变革为驱动的选举中，他们因这种关联而蒙上阴影。
The three most established center-right candidates — Mr. Philippe, Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau — all served in top jobs in Macron governments. In an election driven by change, analysts say, they are tarnished by that association.
“戴维·利斯纳尔和拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼无需为过去负责，”民调机构副主任列维表示。
“David Lisnard and Raphaël Glucksmann are not accountable for the past,” said Mr. Lévy, deputy director of the polling firm.
利斯纳尔曾是一名记者，是职业足球运动员的儿子，曾任主要右翼政党共和党的副主席，并于2021年创立了自己的政党“新能量”。格吕克斯曼曾是一名纪录片导演，其父安德烈·格吕克斯曼是著名哲学家，他曾以社会党候选人名单身份参选。但他从未成为社会党党员，并于2018年创立了自己的政党“公共广场”。
Mr. Lisnard, a onetime journalist who is the son of a professional soccer player, was a vice president of the main right-wing party, the Republicans, and started his own party, New Energy, in 2021. Mr. Glucksmann, a former documentary filmmaker whose father, André Glucksmann, was a famous philosopher, ran for office on a list of Socialist candidates. But he has never been a member of the Socialists, having started his own party, Place Publique, in 2018.
根据益普索最新民调，拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼获得13%的支持率，与菲利普持平，但落后于梅朗雄的17%和勒庞的33.5%。利斯纳尔获得6.5%的支持率；在其他近期民调中，他的支持率曾高达9%。
In the most recent poll by Ipsos, Raphaël Glucksmann drew 13 percent, equal to that of Mr. Philippe but behind Mr. Mélenchon, at 17 percent, and Ms. Le Pen, at 33.5 percent. Mr. Lisnard drew 6.5 percent; in other recent polls, he has been as high as 9 percent.
分析人士认为，两人都面临艰难的挑战：利斯纳尔因身处拥挤的中间偏右阵营而竞争激烈；格吕克斯曼则因中间偏左势力在法国已几近枯竭而举步维艰。
Both men face an uphill struggle, according to analysts: Mr. Lisnard, because he is jostling in a crowded center-right field; Mr. Glucksmann, because the center left has all but withered as a political force in France.
分析人士对拉加德参选也持怀疑态度——不仅仅是因为她在9月告诉法国报纸《十字架报》，参选“绝对不是个好主意”。她提到了自己的年龄（70岁）以及这份工作的高要求。
Analysts are also skeptical about a Lagarde candidacy — and not just because she told the French paper La Croix in September that running “would not be a good idea at all.”She cited her age, 70, and the demands of the job.
伦敦大学学院法国政治专家菲利普·马里耶尔表示，拉加德的技术官僚风格和亲欧洲立场，在由民粹主义和民族主义推动的选举中将成为劣势。他说：“这种猜测更多地反映了法国中间偏右阵营的危机。”
Philippe Marlière, an expert on French politics at University College London, said Ms. Lagarde’s technocratic style and pro-European tilt would be a liability in an election fueled by populism and nationalism. “This speculation tells us more about the crisis of the French center right,” he said.
欧盟前委员蒂埃里·布雷顿的名字也被提及为潜在候选人。他说，中间派之所以举步维艰，是因为选民对有详细政策议程的传统政客感到反感，似乎“越来越愿意投票给一个人物或角色”。
Thierry Breton, a former commissioner at the European Union whose name has also come up as a potential candidate, said centrists were struggling because voters were turned off by conventional politicians, with detailed policy agendas, and seemed “willing to vote more and more for a figure or character.”
此时，里内尔登场了。他是柔道五届奥运金牌得主，从未担任过民选职务。他出生于加勒比海的法国领土瓜德罗普，父母在1990年代初移居法国本土。里内尔将自己的生活故事描绘为法国伟大的见证，并誓言要成为一股团结力量。虽然他的政策立场仍在完善中，但他自诩为“既非右派也非左派”的候选人。从纸面上看，他似乎比拉加德更没有胜算。
Enter Mr. Riner, a five-time Olympic gold medalist in judo who has never held elected office. He was born in Guadeloupe, a French territory in the Caribbean, to parents who moved to mainland France in the early 1990s. Mr. Riner has cast his life story as a testament to France’s greatness and vowed to be a unifying force. While his policy positions are a work in progress, he bills himself as a candidate of “neither the right nor the left.”On paper, he would appear an even longer shot than Ms. Lagarde.
但勒维指出，里内尔会吸引涌向梅朗雄（极左翼领袖）的年轻选民，后者一直是学生主导抗议活动的常客。当然，没有任何候选人能比得上里内尔的“局外人”身份。
But Mr. Lévy noted that Mr. Riner would appeal to younger voters flocking to Mr. Mélenchon, the far-left leader, who has been a fixture at student-led protests. Certainly, none of the candidates can match Mr. Riner’s outsider status.
“我听到了愤怒，一些人用大量负面言论来回应这种愤怒，这些言论来自那些不再有雄心、不再渴望宏图大志的人口中，”里内尔在接受法国报纸《巴黎人报》采访时说。“但法国是一个伟大的国家。它让我成为了今天的我。”欢迎里内尔参选的人中包括马克龙，后者因在2017年大选中期以新面孔崛起而广为人知。马克龙在接受一家法国广播机构采访时表示，他对里内尔加入竞争感到“非常高兴”。“这只会对国家有益，”马克龙说。塞戈莱娜·勒斯特拉迪克参与了采访报道。
“I hear anger, which some people echo with a lot of negativity, and from the mouths of people who no longer have ambition or the desire to think big,” Mr. Riner said in an interview with the French paper Le Parisien. “But France is a great country. It allowed me to become the person I am.”Among those who welcomed Mr. Riner’s campaign was Mr. Macron, who famously emerged as a fresh face midway through the 2017 election. Speaking to a French broadcaster, he said he was “very happy” that Mr. Riner was joining the fray. “It can only benefit the country,” Mr. Macron said. Ségolène Le Stradic contributed reporting.
马克·兰德勒是《纽约时报》巴黎分社社长，负责报道法国以及美国在欧洲和中东的外交政策。他从事新闻工作已有三十多年。
Mark Landler is the Paris bureau chief of The Times, covering France, as well as American foreign policy in Europe and the Middle East. He has been a journalist for more than three decades.