巴黎10月30日电——法国总统竞选的中间派候选人之间爆发内讧，导致主流选票分流，并使得极右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞与极左翼的让-吕克·梅朗雄在决胜轮中对决的可能性进一步增加。
PARIS, Oct 30 - Infighting has broken out among centrist candidates for France's presidential race, splitting the mainstream vote and making a runoff between far-right Marine Le Pen and hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon more likely.
明年4月总统大选前的民意调查显示，勒庞几乎确定能晋级5月份的第二轮决胜轮，而梅朗雄的支持率则在持续稳步超过主流候选人。
Opinion polls before next April's presidential election show Le Penis nearly certain to qualify for a second-round runoff in May and that Melenchon is consistently nudging ahead of mainstream candidates.
中右翼的埃多阿尔·菲利普曾任总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的前总理，迄今一直是中间派的旗手。
Centre-right Edouard Philippe, President Emmanuel Macron's former prime minister, has so far been the centre's torchbearer.
但马克龙阵营的人士和政治分析人士表示，菲利普低迷的竞选活动、选民在马克龙两个任期即将结束时的疲劳感、爆炸性的社会与安全背景以及他来自阵营内部的挑战，都损害了他的民调表现。
But Philippe's lacklustre campaign, voter weariness near the end of Macron's two terms, an explosive social and security context and the challenges he faces from within his own camp have hurt his polling, people in Macron's camp and political analysts say.
巴黎政治学院政治传播专家菲利普·莫罗-谢弗罗莱表示：“船上已经出现恐慌，因为没有制定应对这种情况的方案。他们没有预料到正在发生的这场大灾难。”N菲利普还因多次不合时宜的言论而面临批评——其中包括他在一档播客节目中建议，新当选的总统理想情况下应该有三个月的休息时间再上任——政治分析人士指出，在政治紧张局势加剧之际，他正艰难地与选民建立联系。
"There's panic on board because there was no scenario planned for this. They hadn't anticipated the cataclysm under way," said Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, a political communications specialist at Sciences Po. Philippe has also faced criticism over several awkward interventions — including suggesting in a podcast that ideally a newly elected president should have three months to rest before taking office — and political analysts say he is struggling to connect with voters at a time of rising political tensions.
莫罗-谢弗罗莱对路透社表示：“可怕的是，他没能引起共鸣。他们没有理解你必须去竞选。这是一种业余主义情绪。”这种焦虑加剧了菲利普与其主要竞争对手、另一位前总理加布里埃尔·阿塔尔之间的紧张关系。两人正陷入一场关于谁应当为中间派候选人退让的争斗中。
"The terrible thing is that he isn't cutting through," Moreau-Chevrolet told Reuters. "They didn't understand that you have to campaign. There's a kind of dilettantism." The anxiety has sharpened tensions between Philippe and his main rival, Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. They are locked in a battle over who should step aside for the centrist ticket.
在《费加罗报》委托IFOP-Fiducial进行的民调中，菲利普的支持率跌至15%，较9月份下降了6个百分点。这低于梅朗雄16.5%的支持率，后者将足以获得与勒庞进行决胜轮对决的资格。
Philippe fell to 15% support in an IFOP-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro newspaper, a six-point drop since September. That is below the 16.5% for Melenchon, who would have enough to qualify for a runoff against Le Pen.
阿塔尔的支持率为13%，落后于梅朗雄以及主流中左翼候选人拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼。
Attal stood at 13%, behind Melenchon and Raphael Glucksmann, a mainstream centre-left candidate.
在其阵营议员的压力下，阿塔尔被要求放弃总统野心并转而支持菲利普，但他本周重提举行广泛的中间派初选的想法，这激怒了许多马克龙的盟友。批评人士称，在温和派最无法承受内耗的时刻，这一提议有可能加剧分裂。
Under pressure from lawmakers in his camp to abandon his presidential ambitions and rally to Philippe, Attal irritated many Macron allies this week by reviving the idea of a broad centrist primary, a proposal critics say risks fuelling division at a time when moderates can least afford it.
尽管如此，阿塔尔仍握有筹码。作为马克龙所属的复兴党领袖，他掌控着党内机器的钱袋子。
Still, Attal has leverage. As leader of Macron's Renaissance party, he controls the purse strings of the party machine.
中间派选票碎片化 “这简直是一场灾难，”马克龙阵营的前议员让-巴蒂斯特·莫罗说。
CENTRIST VOTE FRAGMENTS "It's catastrophic," said Jean-Baptiste Moreau, a former lawmaker from Macron's camp.
谈到勒庞的国民联盟（RN）和梅朗雄的不屈法国（LFI）时，他表示：“他们在媒体上互相攻击，两人的民调都在崩溃。我们正在径直走向国民联盟与不屈法国的第二轮对决。以目前的舆论状态，我看不到我们如何能避免这种情况。”这种碎片化不仅限于菲利普与阿塔尔的争斗。
"They are attacking one another in the media and they are both collapsing in the polls. We're heading straight towards an RN-LFI second round," he said of Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Melenchon's France Unbowed (LFI). "In the current state of opinion, I don't see how we avoid it." The fragmentation stretches beyond the Philippe-Attal feud.
在中左翼方面，格鲁克斯曼在赢得社会党初选后势头上升。在右翼方面，前内政部长布鲁诺·勒塔约与戛纳自由市场派市长达维德·利斯纳尔则在争夺同一批温和派选民。
On the centre-left, Glucksmann has gained ground after winning the Socialist primary. On the right, Bruno Retailleau, a former interior minister, and David Lisnard, the free-market mayor of Cannes, are targeting the same moderate electorate.
菲利普的支持者表示，有关他政治生命终结的报道言之过早。菲利普所属的地平线党成员洛朗·马尔康热利承认最近民调受挫，但表示这位前总理依然是唯一拥有通往决胜轮现实路径的中间派候选人。
Philippe's supporters say reports of his demise are premature. Laurent Marcangeli, a member of Philippe's party Horizons, acknowledged recent polling setbacks but said the former prime minister remained the only centrist candidate with a realistic path to the runoff.
马尔康热利说：“他仍在竞选第二轮并阻止勒庞与梅朗雄对决的赛道上，”并补充说在某些民调中阿塔尔的支持率甚至跌至个位数。
"He's still in the race for the second round and to prevent a Le Pen-Melenchon duel," said Marcangeli, adding that in some polls Attal scored as low as single digits.
然而，一些马克龙的盟友公开质疑这两人是否应该继续参选。他们表示，任何与即将结束其第二任期且人气处于历史低点的马克龙产生的关联，都会拖累中间派候选人。
Some Macron allies, however, are openly questioning whether either man should carry on. They say any association with Macron, who is finishing his second term at record-low popularity, will weigh on a centrist candidate.
马克龙盟友民主运动党议员佩里娜·古莱说：“他们两个都在崩盘。任何曾在马克龙政府中任职的候选人都将举步维艰。”
"The two of them are collapsing," said Perrine Goulet, a lawmaker from Macron ally MoDem. "Any candidate who has been in a Macron government is going to be struggling."
她表示，随着勒庞和梅朗雄在光谱的两端巩固支持，温和派需要放下个人野心，团结在一位能够团结从格鲁克斯曼到勒塔约的支持者的单一候选人身后。古莱说：“我们呼吁所有人抛开自我，寻找最佳候选人。”
With Le Pen and Melenchon consolidating support at opposite ends of the spectrum, she said moderates needed to put aside personal ambitions and rally behind a single contender able to unite supporters of Glucksmann through to Retailleau. "We're calling on everyone to put their egos aside and find the best candidate," Goulet said.
“如果我们一边留着格鲁克斯曼，另一边留着勒塔约，还有埃多阿尔·菲利普、加布里埃尔·阿塔尔，我们最终将迎来不屈法国与国民联盟的第二轮对决。这个危险实在是太大了。” 路透社
"If we keep Glucksmann on one side, Retailleau on the other, Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, we'll end up with an LFI-RN second round. The danger is simply too great." REUTERS