根据Cluster 17于周一发布的最新民调，法国前总理爱德华·菲利普在总统选举首轮投票中仅将排名第三，落后于让-吕克·梅朗雄。
Former French prime minister Édouard Philippe would finish only third in the first round of the presidential election, behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to a new Cluster 17 poll for published on Monday.
菲利普的竞选活动一直难以获得势头，民调显示其投票意向为16%，较9月上一版调查下降三个百分点。法国不屈党领袖梅朗雄则更有望与玛丽娜·勒庞一同进入决选，根据不同测试情景，其支持率在18.5%至19.5%之间。
Philippe, whose campaign has struggled to gain momentum, is credited with 16 percent of voting intentions - down three points from the previous edition of the survey in September. Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, would be better placed to join Marine Le Pen in the run-off, polling at between 18.5 percent and 19.5 percent depending on the scenario tested.
如果菲利普作为中间派阵营的候选人，国民联盟候选人玛丽娜·勒庞将以33%的支持率扩大对对手的领先优势。尽管Mediapart报道了归咎于乔丹·巴尔德拉的反犹言论——巴尔德拉对此予以否认——勒庞的支持率仍较9月上升了两个百分点。
Marine Le Pen, the National Rally candidate, would widen her lead over her rivals with 33 percent if Philippe were the candidate of the centrist bloc. That represents a two-point rise since September, despite Mediapart’s reporting of antisemitic messages attributed to Jordan Bardella - allegations he contests.
巴尔德拉因反犹言论风波出现新证据而承受压力。10月初被选为社会民主党初选候选人的拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼支持率上升一个百分点，达到13%。
Bardella under pressure as new evidence emerges in antisemitic messages row Raphaël Glucksmann, selected as the social-democratic primary’s candidate earlier in October, gained one point to reach 13 percent.
如果加布里埃尔·阿塔尔取代菲利普成为中间派阵营候选人，该阵营的前景将更为糟糕。阿塔尔将获得12%的选票，较9月下降一点五个百分点，并将被梅朗雄和格鲁克斯曼双双超越。
The outlook for the centrist bloc would be worse if Gabriel Attal replaced Philippe as its candidate. Attal would receive 12 percent of the vote, down one and a half points from September, and would be overtaken by both Mélenchon and Glucksmann.
在右翼方面，布鲁诺·勒塔约的支持率为7%，而自由派人士达维德·利斯纳尔若被纳入预测，将获得8%的支持率。利斯纳尔的出现还将减少勒庞和埃里克·泽穆尔的支持率。
On the right, ' Bruno Retailleau would stand at 7 percent, while liberal David Lisnard would take 8 percent when included in the projection. Lisnard’s presence would also reduce support for Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.
与所有民意调查一样，调查结果只是某一时刻民意的快照，不具有预测价值。
As with all opinion polls, the findings are a snapshot of opinion at a given moment and have no predictive value.
该调查于10月19日至20日在网上进行，样本为3000人，采用配额抽样，代表18岁及以上的法国人口。误差范围在0.8至1.8个百分点之间。
The survey was conducted online from 19 to 20 October among a sample of 3,000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, using quota sampling. The margin of error is between 0.8 and 1.8 percentage points.