法国的抗议活动为极左翼领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄的总统竞选带来了助力。
The protests in France have handed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far Left, a boost in his presidential campaign.
10月17日抗议活动后进行的民调显示,梅朗雄已超越法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的盟友爱德华·菲利普,成为极右翼国民联盟领导人玛丽娜·勒庞最大的挑战者。
Polling conducted after the Oct 17 protests shows that Mr Mélenchon has pulled ahead of Édouard Philippe, an ally of Emmanuel Macron, the French president, to become the biggest challenger to Marine Le Pen.
根据为《巴黎人报》进行的这项调查,“不屈的法国”领导人梅朗雄自上周末法国骚乱达到高峰以来,支持率上升了两个百分点,在首轮投票中达到17%,而菲利普的平均支持率为14%。勒庞以平均33%的支持率保持着强劲领先优势。
According to the survey, which was conducted for the newspaper Le Parisien, Mr Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, has gained two percentage points since civil unrest peaked in France last weekend, putting him at 17 per cent in the first round compared with an average of 14 per cent for Mr Philippe. Ms Le Pen, the leader of the hard-Right National Rally, boasts a strong lead, with an average of 33 per cent.
数月来,民调预测投票箱前的较量将在勒庞和中右翼“地平线党”领导人菲利普之间展开。
For months, polls predicted that the battle at the voting booths would pit Ms Le Pen against Mr Philippe,the leader of the centre-right Horizons party.
在激烈的反政府和反马克龙情绪中,爱德华·菲利普正在失去民心。但10月17日的事件——当时55万人参加了全国性抗议,并演变成混乱和抢劫——彻底改变了左翼的竞选格局。
Edouard Philippe is losing ground amid fierce anti-government and anti-Macron sentiment But the events of Oct 17, when 550,000 people took part in nationwide protests that spiralled into chaos and looting, have upended the campaign on the Left.
民调机构益普索副总裁布里斯·坦特里耶将梅朗雄的崛起归功于他对上个月爆发的学生抗议的全力支持。
Brice Teinturier, the deputy director general of the polling firm Ipsos, credited Mr Mélenchon’s full-throated support for the student revolt that kicked off last month.
坦特里耶对《巴黎人报》表示:“他反复强调倾听抗议者诉求的必要性;这使他脱颖而出。真正的抗议者被许多人遗忘,但没有被他遗忘。”该民调于10月21日至22日对1500名登记在册的选民进行了调查。
“He has repeatedly emphasised the need to listen to the protesters; that is what has enabled him to rise to prominence,” Mr Teinturier told Le Parisien. “The real protesters have been forgotten by many, but not by him.”The poll surveyed 1,500 people registered on the electoral lists between Oct 21 and 22.
法国各地的抗议活动为极左翼注入了新的动力。上个月,法国学生开始封锁学校,抗议教师短缺和校舍年久失修。此后,工会成员和2018年“黄背心”运动参与者加入其中,各种不满情绪交织在一起,包括生活成本上涨和公共服务遭到侵蚀。
The protests across France have driven new momentum for the far Left French students began blockading schools last month to protest against teacher shortages and crumbling schools. Since then, they have been joined by trade unionists and the “yellow vest” movement from 2018, in a convergence of grievances that include the rising cost of living and the erosion of public services.
抗议活动为极左翼带来了新的势头,并将原本支持勒庞的选票分流给了她的极右翼对手埃里克·泽穆尔。
The protests have driven new momentum for the far Left, and diverted support from Ms Le Pen to her far-Right rival, Éric Zemmour.
曾在马克龙政府中担任三年总理的菲利普,在激烈的反政府和反马克龙情绪中正逐渐失势。按最乐观的估计,菲利普预计将在第一轮投票中获得15%的选票。
Mr Philippe, who served as prime minister for three years under Mr Macron, is losing ground amid fierce anti-government and anti-Macron sentiment. In the best-case scenario, Mr Philippe is projected to secure 15 per cent of the vote in the first round of voting.
“法国人认为政府作出了糟糕的决定。因此,作为该政府成员的爱德华·菲利普和加布里埃尔·阿塔尔正受到严厉惩罚。这一趋势对他们而言正在加速。”坦蒂里耶表示。
“The French believe the government has made poor decisions. Consequently, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, who are part of that government, are being heavily penalised. This trend is accelerating for them,” Mr Teinturier said.
骚乱原本预计将为玛丽娜·勒庞提供助力,但反而将支持分流给了她的极右翼对手埃里克·泽穆尔。民调专家补充说,社会党总统候选人拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼也在缩小与菲利普的差距,平均支持率为13%,而且他还有一个额外优势:向选民展示新鲜血液,而非老派人物。
The riots were expected to provide a boost for Marine Le Pen but instead have diverted support to Eric Zemmour, her rival on the far Right Raphaël Glucksmann, the presidential candidate for the socialists, is also closing the gap with Mr Philippe, with an average of 13 per cent, and has the added advantage of presenting voters with new blood over the old guard, adds the pollster.
尽管骚乱同样预计会给勒庞带来提振,但民调显示,骚乱反而加强了对泽穆尔的支持。泽穆尔是极右翼“收复党”的领袖,该党目前获得4%选民的支持。
While the riots were also expected to give Ms Le Pen a boost, the polling shows that they have instead strengthened support for Mr Zemmour, the leader of the ultra-Right-wing Reconquête party, which currently has the support of 4 per cent of voters.
“玛丽娜·勒庞主导着局面,但她没有利用当前事件获益。”坦蒂里耶表示。“她正在失去支持,因为选民正重新回到泽穆尔一边。”
“Marine Le Pen dominates the scene, but she is not capitalising on current events,” Mr Teinturier said. “She is losing ground as voters are turning back to Zemmour.”