这是一个难听的缩写。而它所代表的局面更加难看。所谓“尼特族”（Neets）在英国的现实——即没有工作、不在上学、也不接受培训的年轻人——已导致数十万处于十八九岁或二十出头的年轻人十多年来难觅体面前途。
It's an ugly acronym. And it's an even uglier situation. The reality of so-called "Neets" in the UK - young people who haven't got jobs, aren't studying or being trained up - has seen hundreds upon hundreds of thousands in their late teens or early-20s struggle to find a decent future for well over a decade.
这耗费了纳税人数十亿英镑。其人力成本被形形色色地描述为一场灾难、国家的耻辱，甚至是一场道德危机。
It costs the taxpayer billions. And the human cost is variously described as a disaster, a national shame, even a moral crisis.
1999年，托尼·布莱尔的唐宁街首创“尼特族”一词时，关注焦点是17万左右既不在接受教育、也不就业、也不参加培训的青少年。在为解决该问题进行多次尝试、并叠加一场大流行病和数年经济低迷后，事态已趋严峻——近百万25岁以下年轻人陷入这一境地。
When the phrase Neet was first coined by Tony Blair's Downing Street in 1999, the focus was on 170,000 or so teenagers who were not in education, employment or training. After many attempts at solving the problem, add in a pandemic and years of a sluggish economy, it's acute - with nearly a million under-25s in that situation.
一部包含旨在彻底解决该问题建议的巨著将于周二出版，历时一年编撰而成。
A tome full of proposals to try and fix it once and for all will be published on Tuesday, after a year in the making.
政府如何反应将考验其推行激进变革的意愿和能力，也将考验首相真正的、而非修辞上的、对棘手政治斗争的渴望。
How the government reacts will test its appetite and capacity for radical change, and the prime minister's real, not rhetorical, hunger for tricky political arguments.
这部大规模审视报告背后的精明能干的圆滑推手、前工党议员艾伦·米尔本希望你明白，安迪·伯纳姆非常清楚即将出台的内容。
The canny smooth talker behind the huge review, former Labour MP Alan Milburn, wants you to know that Andy Burnham knows exactly what's coming.
他在利物浦接受我采访时表示，默西赛德郡16至24岁年轻人的失业率为14.5%：“始终贯穿其中的是，首相、财政大臣、所有部长，他们都知道正在发生什么。这份报告发布时他们不会感到意外，这使其真正得以落实的机会大增。”但他的建议集绝非胆小者所能接受。
Speaking to me in Liverpool, where in Merseyside 14.5% of 16 to 24-year-olds are unemployed, he tells me: "All the way through, the prime minister, the chancellor, all the ministers, they know what's going on. It won't be a surprise to them when this is launched and that gives it a fighting chance of actually being implemented."
除了计划停止25岁以下人群申领主要疾病和残疾福利外，米尔本还将主张，在纳税人用于青年福利的开支与用于帮助他们就业的支持开支之间，实现戏剧性的平衡转变。
But his collection of proposals is not for the faint-hearted.
他说，目前用于青年福利的开支是就业支持的25倍——他希望将这一比例彻底扭转为2比1。
On top of a plan to stop under-25s claiming the main sickness and disability benefits, Milburn will argue for a dramatic shift in the balance of what the taxpayer spends on benefits for young people compared to what is spent on support to help them get into work.
他暂不给出具体数字，但公开承认这意味着大量青年将失去福利或面临削减。
He says the amount spent on young people's benefits is 25 times as much as that on employment support - and he wants to shift it to a drastically different two to one.
但与此同时，纳税人资助的继续教育、培训、健康支持以及可能的就业补贴也将大幅扩张。账本这一端大幅削减国家支持，那一端大幅增加。
He won't put specific numbers on it yet, but accepts openly that means a significant number of young people losing their benefits or facing cuts. But that would come with a chunky expansion of the amount of further education, training, health support and likely jobs subsidised by the taxpayer too.
为确保政府真正下决心改善这一烂摊子，米尔本要求出台一部新法律，给予青年帮助和支持的保障——一份工作、一个学徒岗位、一个培训名额，或者可能是让他们具备工作能力的健康治疗——即“机会保障”。
A big cut to state support on one side of the ledger, but a big increase on the other.
他告诉我，他不会掉进“大象陷阱”，即一个倔强的青少年若得不到心仪的工作就能起诉首相。但思路是给当局施加法定义务，类似于地方议会照顾受监护儿童、或为无家可归者提供住宿和建议的义务。
And to make sure that government gets really serious about improving the mess, Milburn is asking for a new law that would give young people a guarantee of help and support - a job, an apprenticeship, a training place, or perhaps health treatment so they are able to work - an "opportunity guarantee". He told me he won't fall into the "elephant's trap", where a feisty teenager could sue the prime minister if they didn't get the job they fancied.
威斯敏斯特行话常把这类报告中诚恳的建议组合称为“范围广泛”。这份审查确实范围广泛，主张的变革不仅涉及福利，还涉及医疗和教育体系。
But the idea is to put a legal duty on the authorities in a similar vein to councils' obligation to look after children in care, or to provide accommodation or advice to homeless people. Westminster jargon often describes earnest sets of recommendations published in reports like this as "wide-ranging".
这是国家对下一代介入的真正扩张，出自仍在台上的布莱尔派人物之手，配得上那身昂贵的保罗·史密斯针织衫。
This review genuinely is, arguing for changes not just in welfare, but in the health and education systems.
他不是第一位试图解决此问题的政府老将，伯纳姆也不是第一位尝试的首相。
It's a real expansion of the state's involvement in the next generation, from one of the Blairites still standing, with the expensive Paul Smith knitwear to match.
但米尔本及其盟友说，这次不同之处在于，他们推动的是一个永久性的全新体系，而非又一个由一位大臣推出、由下一位上任大臣放弃或废弃的计划。
He is not the first government veteran nor is Burnham the first PM, to try to sort out this problem.
法律担保的概念旨在让国家承担责任——很可能通过地方议会或市长——确保年轻人离开学校后（永久性地）有有用的事可做。
But what Milburn and his allies say is different this time round is they're pushing for a whole new system that's permanent, not just another scheme that gets introduced by one secretary of state, then is dropped or scrapped by the next one that turns up.
这些建议适用于整个英国，但在苏格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰具体如何行使这些权力，将在起草法律的细节阶段再行商定。
And the notion of a legal guarantee is designed to make the state, likely through local councils or mayors, take responsibility for making sure young people have something useful to do when they emerge from school – for good.
这项实际挑战的规模从太空都能看出来。自由民主党本周末发布的新研究表明，如果不采取行动，到2031年，“既不在上学也不在就业或培训中”的青年（Neets）人数将达到126万。
The recommendations apply to the whole UK, but the precise way the powers might be used in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be worked out when it gets to the finer details of draft laws. The scale of the practical challenge can be seen from space.
米尔本本人引用的数据显示，该问题每年造成的成本高达220亿英镑。
New research from the Lib Dems this weekend suggests that if nothing is done, the number of Neets would hit 1.26 million by 2031.
没有政客会主张维持现状。但对“必须有所作为”达成共识，并不自动转化为对“作为什么”达成共识。
And Milburn himself cites figures that puts the cost of the issue at £22bn a year. No politician would argue for the status quo.
尽管米尔本谈及宏大雄心，但他的计划在可预见的未来，不会对膨胀的福利成本产生多大影响。
But agreement that something must be done doesn't automatically translate into consensus over what that something is.
他的计划需要长达十年时间，才能真正减轻福利账单的压力。而且这在开始阶段需要纳税人的钱，尽管不是外界猜测的60亿英镑。他对前期成本仍讳莫如深，但表示多年来将达到数十亿英镑。
For all Milburn's talk of grand ambition – his plans will not, any time soon, make much difference to the ballooning costs to welfare. His plan will take as long as a decade before making a real dent in the benefits bill. And it will require taxpayers' cash at the start, although not the £6bn guesstimates that have done the rounds.
他直言有许多年轻人有工作能力却不工作，但小心翼翼地避开了指责部分人利用制度漏洞的说法，称他确信绝大多数年轻人都想工作。
He's still coy about the upfront cost, but it will be billions over the years.
保守党和改革英国党都将快速从福利账单中节省数百亿英镑列为首要任务。
And he says plainly there are many young people who are capable of working but don't, although tiptoes carefully around any accusations that some take advantage of the system, saying he's convinced the vast majority of young people do want to work.
保守党表示，米尔本关于必须削减福利的观点是正确的——但“与工党不同，我们的计划直击问题根源”，包括将年轻人的雇主国民保险缴费减半，并创造10万个新的学徒岗位。改革英国党称，除非伯纳姆立即采取行动，否则这次审查“毫无意义”，不能再“等上10年青年福利账单才下降”。米尔本和政府预计将面临持续批评，认为这些计划需要如此漫长的时间才能开始削减纳税人承担的巨额账单，这是不可接受的。毫无疑问，预期的福利支出增长绝对令人咋舌。
The Conservatives and Reform have both put saving tens of billions from the welfare bill, and fast, at the top of their list. The Tories said Milburn was right that benefits must be cut - but that "unlike Labour, our plan goes to the root of the problem" including by halving employer National Insurance for young people and creating 100,000 new apprenticeships. Reform said the review "is pointless unless we get action from Burnham straight away" and it cannot be "another 10 years before the youth benefits bill comes down." Milburn and the government can expect sustained criticism that it's not acceptable the plans would take so long to start cutting the enormous bill for the taxpayer.
来自那一方（指保守党和改革英国党）的反对，以及确实来自左翼绿党的反对——他们已经认为目前看到的内容“残酷”——对于唐宁街来说完全在预料之中。更难判断、因此也更难应对的是工党议员将如何回应。
There is no question the expected increases in benefit payments are absolutely eye-watering. The opposition from that quarter, and indeed from the Greens on the left arguing already that what they have seen so far is "cruel", is entirely predictable to Downing Street.
基尔·斯塔默曾试图对福利进行改革，却在后座议员的反弹面前退让，痛苦地失败了，并搞垮了自己的权威。
What's harder to read, and therefore more difficult to contend with, is how Labour MPs will respond.
这就是为什么福利大臣帕特·麦克法登在过去一年里花费数小时与工党议员交谈，试图耐心地为这项计划辩护。
Keir Starmer tried, and painfully failed to make changes to welfare, sabotaging his own authority when he backed down in the face of backbenchers.
也是为什么米尔本正如他所强调的，一直与“10号”和“11号”（指首相府和财政部）保持联系，试图在伯纳姆到达唐宁街之前就让他加入。一位政府消息人士充满希望地表示，这一次“我们做好了铺垫工作——这不是一个由数字驱动的仓促财政部流程”。
That's why Pat McFadden, the welfare secretary, has spent hours and hours talking to Labour MPs in the last year, trying to patiently make the case for this plan. And why Milburn, as he was keen to point out, has continually been in touch with No 10 and 11, trying to get Burnham on board even before he made it to Downing Street.
正如我的同事伊恩·沃森所写，迹象对米尔本更有利，上次的一些关键批评者对新计划表现出的不仅仅是开放的态度。
A government source said hopefully, this time "we've done the ground work – it's not a rushed Treasury process driven by numbers".
政治气候完全不同，工党目前对民调更为乐观，后座议员也不愿惹麻烦。伯纳姆当然仍然掌握着斯塔默赢得的巨大多数席位。
As my colleague Iain Watson has written, the signs are healthier for Milburn, with a few key critics from last time showing more than an open mind to the new plans. The political climate is completely different with Labour, for now, cheerier about the polls, and backbenchers reluctant to make trouble.
毫无疑问，党内左翼会有声音，他们或许担心在自己的选区面临来自绿党或苏格兰民族党（SNP）的反对，这些对手绝不会签署任何会导致目前领取福利者付款减少的协议。
Burnham still is in possession of course, of the enormous majority that Starmer won.
“看看斯塔默陷入了多大的混乱，”一位左翼人士警告说，伯纳姆不会如此“顽固愚蠢”地重蹈覆辙，因为“他想做所有人的朋友”。
There will, without doubt, be voices on the left of the party, concerned perhaps about opposition from the Greens or the SNP in their constituency who will never sign up to anything that would mean a cut to payments for anyone on benefits now.
因此，一个可能的分歧点在于：削减福利是适用于正在领取者，正如米尔本所主张的，还是仅适用于未来的申请者。
"Look at the chaos Starmer got into," one source on the left warned, saying Burnham wouldn't be so "boneheaded" to do the same as "he wants to be everyone's friend".
一位首相府消息人士明确表示，计划必须适用于目前领取福利的人，并警告必须尽快采取行动，尽管新立法需要时间。
So a possible fault line may become whether the reduced benefits apply to those already claiming, as Milburn believes, or only those in future.
他们对我说：“关于福利的辩论，是我们乐于进行的辩论。”让我们拭目以待，这种态度能否经得起时间的考验。
A No 10 source is plain the plans would have to apply to those on benefits now, warning they must act as soon as they can, although new laws will take time. They told me "an argument on welfare is an argument we are happy to have".
米尔本审查是由斯塔默启动的。但它将在一位不同的领导人领导下、在一个截然不同的政治时刻公之于众。
Let's see if that sentiment stands the test of time. The Milburn review was set on its path by Starmer.
一些工党人士不禁猜测，米尔本的想法或许正逢其时：一位新任首相大话连篇，却或许缺乏实质性的具体构想，因据传聘请私人顾问来充实其大肆宣扬的“十年计划”而遭对手嘲讽。
But it will emerge blinking into the light under a different leader, and in a very different political moment.
伯纳姆普遍被认为会采纳米尔本大多数真正激进的想法。然而，无论当前政治局势看起来多么稳定，未来几个月仍将充满争论。
Perhaps, some in Labour wonder, Milburn's ideas are arriving at a time when a newish prime minister has big rhetoric but perhaps is short of big concrete ideas, mocked by his opponents for reportedly bringing in private consultants to fill out his much-vaunted 10 year plan. Burnham is widely expected to adopt most of Milburn's genuinely radical ideas.
但米尔本的想法或许正逢其时，为一个相对新的政府提供了契机。一位资深工党人士认为：“你需要一些实质内容支撑骨架，不能光是‘把什么都国有化’——这可能就是答案。”主图：PA/路透社BBC InDepth 是网站和应用上深度分析的栏目，提供挑战固有认知的全新视角，并对当天最大的议题进行深度报道。埃玛·巴内特和约翰·辛普森每周六为您精选最发人深省的深度阅读和分析。此处
Months of arguments lie ahead, however settled the political picture appears right now. But Milburn's ideas just might have come around at the right time for a relatively new government . As one senior Labour figure believes: "You need some meat on the bones that isn't just, 'nationalise everything' – this could be it." Lead image: PA/Reuters BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. Emma Barnett and John Simpson bring their pick of the most thought-provoking deep reads and analysis, every Saturday. here
