
正当科技界争论英伟达在没有黄仁勋的情况下可能会如何发展时,分析师们不断联想到同一个类比:苹果公司传奇首席执行官史蒂夫·乔布斯的离职。
As the technology world debates how Nvidia is likely to fare without Jensen Huang, analysts keep returning to the same analogy: the departure of legendary CEO Steve Jobs from Apple.
这两个案例之间的相似之处显而易见:一家顶尖的美国科技公司不得不告别一位富有远见的领导人。而苹果公司的历史之所以更引人入胜,是因为它曾两次替换乔布斯,而结果截然不同。
The similarities between the two cases are clear: a top American tech company forced to move on from a visionary leader. And Apple’s history is all the more intriguing given it replaced Jobs twice – with dramatically different results.
在有关其所谓婚外情的媒体报道中,黄仁勋于周四辞去英伟达职务,结束了他长达33年的执掌生涯。在他的带领下,这家人工智能芯片公司发展成为一家市值达4万亿美元的庞然大物。
Huang resigned from Nvidia on Thursday amid media reports of his alleged extramarital affairs, bringing to an end a 33-year reign that saw him build the artificial intelligence chip firm into a US$4 trillion juggernaut.
首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯已出任英伟达临时首席执行官,董事会则在物色正式人选。
Chief financial officer Colette Kress has stepped in as Nvidia’s interim CEO, while the board searches for a permanent replacement.
随着市场消化黄仁勋离职的消息,许多人迅速将其与苹果失去乔布斯进行对比。以詹姆斯·施耐德为首的高盛分析师称,这是科技行业中极少数富有远见的领导人被突然逼退的案例之一,同时指出两者的局势有所不同。
As markets digested Huang’s departure, many were quick to draw comparisons with Apple losing Jobs. Goldman Sachs analysts led by James Schneider called it one of the few instances in the tech sector where a visionary leader was pushed out abruptly, while noting the situations differed.
施耐德写道:“两家公司都有着深厚的技术和产品创新传统以及显著的竞争优势,且在相对较短的时间内都失去了关键领导人。”
“Both companies have had a strong tradition of technical and product innovation and significant competitive advantage, as well as a key leader who was lost in relatively short order,” Schneider wrote.
施耐德将黄仁勋形容为“英伟达企业文化和精神不可或缺的一部分”。他写道:“即使在职能层面拥有强劲的领导力,在缺乏核心的远见卓识领导人的情况下,该公司可能也难以像过去那样敏捷地运营。”
Schneider described Huang as “integral to Nvidia’s corporate culture and ethos”. “Even with strong leadership at the functional level, it may be more difficult for the company to operate as nimbly as it did in the past in the absence of its central, visionary leader,” he wrote.
该分析师预测,英伟达的股票将走上与乔布斯离任后苹果类似的道路,因为市场在中期寻找合适的市盈率,从而对其估值施加压力,直到其领导层和业务势头变得更加明朗。
The analyst predicted that Nvidia’s stock would follow a similar path to Apple’s post-Jobs, as the market searched for the right multiple in the medium term, putting pressure on the firm’s valuation, until its leadership and business momentum became clearer.
在争议期间于社交媒体上表达对黄仁勋支持的特斯拉与太空探索技术公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克指出,苹果和优步就是为什么驱逐强有力的企业领导人是个坏主意的例子。
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who has voiced support for Huang on social media amid the controversy, pointed to Apple and Uber as examples of why ousting a powerful corporate leader was a bad idea.
针对X上的一篇帖子“你以为我们应该从史蒂夫·乔布斯和特拉维斯·卡兰尼克那里吸取教训,即人们不能随随便便就取代创始人”,马斯克于周四回应称:“大实话”。
Replying to a post on X that said, “You’d think we’d have learned from Steve Jobs and Travis Kalanick that one does not just simply replace the founder,” Musk replied on Thursday: “True words”.
苹果曾两次失去乔布斯。当其董事会在1985年逼退这位联合创始人时,苹果陷入严重衰退,濒临崩溃,直到乔布斯于1997年回归。
Apple lost Jobs twice. When its board pushed the co-founder out in 1985, Apple spiralled into a severe decline, bringing it to the brink of collapse before Jobs returned in 1997.
第二次是在2011年,当时乔布斯因癌症病情恶化而辞职,他于同年晚些时候因该病去世。时任首席运营官蒂姆·库克接过接力棒,并在他担任首席执行官的15年任期内,使这家科技巨头的市场估值增长了14倍。
The second time was in 2011, when Jobs resigned due to failing health from the cancer that killed him later that year. Then-chief operating officer Tim Cook took over the baton, and went on to grow the tech giant’s market valuation 14-fold in his 15-year tenure as CEO.
研究公司SemiAnalysis创始人兼首席执行官迪兰·帕特尔在周四的一份报告中写道,第二次权力交接提供了“公司在创始人过渡后表现良好的最佳范例”。
That second succession offered “the best example of a company that did well after a founder transition”, wrote Dylan Patel, founder and CEO of research firm SemiAnalysis, in a report on Thursday.
帕特尔表示,英伟达完全“有可能”效仿2011年后的苹果模式,即职业经理人转向更保守的战略,专注于股票回购和向投资者返还现金。
Patel said it was “entirely possible” for Nvidia to follow the Apple playbook post-2011, where a professional manager turned to a more conservative strategy focusing on share buy-backs and returning cash to investors.
他在总结这种方法的可能结果时写道:“股东们很高兴,但公司在技术推进上的步伐已不如从前。”
“Shareholders are happy, but the company doesn’t push at the pace it once did in technology,” he wrote, summing up the likely outcome of such an approach.
除了类比之外,一些人甚至提出了库克可能接任英伟达正式首席执行官的想法——库克已卸任苹果首席执行官,目前担任执行董事长。
Beyond drawing analogies, some have even floated the idea that Cook – who has stepped down as Apple’s CEO and currently serves as executive chairman – could take over as permanent chief executive at Nvidia.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于周四表示,库克是胜任该职的“唯一人选”,并称这位前苹果首席执行官为“传奇”。
US President Donald Trump said Cook was “the only man” for the job on Thursday, calling the former Apple CEO a “legend”.
天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹表示,库克的优势在于成本管理和供应链运营,这是英伟达“明显有改善空间”的领域。郭明𫓹补充说,规划和开发新技术对任何继任者来说都可能是一个挑战,不仅仅是库克。
TF International Securities analyst Kuo Ming-chi said Cook’s strength lay in cost management and supply chain operations, an area Nvidia where had “clear room for improvement”. Planning and developing new technologies could be a challenge for any successor, not just Cook, Kuo added.
郭明𫓹于周五写道:“到目前为止,唯一一位明确证明自己能够把这件事情做好,将人类跨领域的最尖端技术带入人工智能芯片和机架解决方案,同时保持商业迭代高速节奏的CEO,只有黄仁勋。”
“So far, the only CEO who has clearly proven he can do this well, bringing humanity’s most cutting-edge technologies from across fields into AI chips and rack solutions while keeping up a fast pace of commercial iteration, is Jensen Huang,” Kuo wrote on Friday.