伊斯兰堡——来自也门亲伊朗的胡塞武装的直接威胁,正在考验巴基斯坦根据上月与沙特阿拉伯和土耳其签署的《麦加防务协议》所作出的承诺。专家们认为,巴基斯坦在应对这一不断升级的沙特-胡塞冲突时有多种选择,但任何形式的干预都可能危及其在该地区的外交地位。
ISLAMABAD -- A direct threat from Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen is testing Pakistan's commitments under the trilateral Mecca defense pact signed last month with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, with experts arguing that Islamabad has several options for its involvement in the deepening Saudi-Houthi conflict while interference may risk its diplomatic capital in the region.
胡塞武装领导人首次直接警告巴基斯坦不要介入他们与沙特阿拉伯的冲突。
Houthi leaders, for the first time, have directly warned Pakistan not to interfere in their conflict with Saudi Arabia.
“以真主之名,如果土耳其和巴基斯坦介入,我们将用铁拳予以反击,”胡塞武装领导人穆罕默德·布凯希蒂在周六接受伊拉克新闻频道iNews采访时说道。
"By God, if Turkey and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist," Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi leader, told Iraqi news channel iNews in an interview on Saturday.
胡塞武装属于扎伊迪什派(Zaydi Shia)武装组织,于2014年控制了也门首都萨那,并目前控制着也门北部和西部的大部分地区。
The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, are an armed group from the Zaydi Shia community and took control of the capital Sanaa in 2014. The group currently controls most of northern and western Yemen.
由沙特领导的军事联盟自2015年起对胡塞武装发动了攻势,但未能取得预期成果,最终于2022年达成停火协议。自7月以来,胡塞武装再次使用无人机和导弹袭击沙特的石油设施及利雅得机场。
A Saudi-led military alliance launched operations against the Houthis in 2015 but failed to achieve its objective and reached a truce in 2022. Since July, the Houthis have resumed attacks on Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles targeting oil facilities and Riyadh's airport.
去年巴基斯坦与沙特签署双边《战略互防协议》后,便成为沙特与胡塞冲突中的重要一方;而最近与沙特和土耳其共同签署的《麦加防务协议》进一步巩固了两国间的合作关系。根据该协议第51条(关于自卫的规定),任何一方遭受武装攻击均被视为对所有缔约方的攻击。
Pakistan has become a stakeholder in Saudi Arabia's conflict with the Houthis after Islamabad signed the bilateral Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Riyadh last year, and its partnership was further strengthened with the recent Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The latest agreement stipulates that an armed attack on any one of the three will be considered an attack on all under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which is about self-defense.
据路透社周五报道,巴基斯坦陆军退役中将诺曼·马哈茂德已被任命为《麦加防务协议》的首任秘书长。这三个盟友将于近期召开紧急高层会议,商讨支持沙特阿拉伯的具体措施。
On Wednesday, Nauman Mahmood, a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army, was appointed as the first secretary-general of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. The three allies will hold an urgent, high-level meeting to discuss ways to support Saudi Arabia, a Reuters report said on Friday.
胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的持续攻击,以及叛乱分子对巴基斯坦发出的威胁,使伊斯兰堡陷入了困境。
The continuing Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and the threats issued by the rebels to Pakistan have put Islamabad in a predicament.
位于利雅得的智库“费萨尔国王伊斯兰研究与发展中心”的研究员乌默尔·卡里姆表示,如果这些攻击持续下去,巴基斯坦将面临来自沙特阿拉伯的军事干预压力。他称:“从沙特的角度来看,巴基斯坦需要派遣地面部队进入也门;但巴基斯坦会尽量避免直接参与军事行动,而是可能为沙特军队提供情报、监视和侦察支持,并可能对胡塞目标发动空袭。”
Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, a think tank in Riyadh, said that Pakistan would be under pressure from Saudi Arabia to get involved in Yemen militarily if the attacks continue. See also Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi pact a 'Muslim NATO'?: 5 things to know "Pakistani land troops would be needed in action from a Saudi perspective inside Yemen," he said. "This is a situation which Pakistan will tend to avoid, and instead [it] may try to provide Saudi forces with [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] support and also perhaps launch air strikes on Houthi targets," he told Nikkei Asia.
巴基斯坦消息人士证实,该国军队已经部署在沙特阿拉伯。据路透社报道,这些部署包括8000名士兵、一支JF-17战斗机中队、无人机以及一套HQ-9防空系统。
Pakistani sources confirm that the country's military is already stationed in Saudi Arabia. Reuters earlier reported that the deployment included 8,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighter jets, drones and an HQ-9 air-defense system.
一位不愿公开姓名的政府官员向《尼康亚洲》表示,巴基斯坦军队在沙特阿拉伯的主要任务是参与沙特的防空工作。该官员称:“《麦加协议》本质上是一项防御性协议,因此巴基斯坦军队的存在纯粹是出于防御目的。”
A government official, who is not authorized to speak to the media, told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that Pakistani forces in Saudi Arabia are engaged only in the kingdom's air defense. "[The Mecca pact] is a defensive agreement, and that's why Pakistani forces' presence in the kingdom is of a purely defensive nature," the official said.
巴基斯坦武装部队的发言人“军种间公共关系部门”未对该请求作出回应。
A government official, who is not authorized to speak to the media, told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that Pakistani forces in Saudi Arabia are engaged only in the kingdom's air defense. "[The Mecca pact] is a defensive agreement, and that's why Pakistani forces' presence in the kingdom is of a purely defensive nature," the official said.
总部位于纽约的“全球事务研究所”的非驻地研究员萨哈尔·汗指出,《麦加协议》虽然是一项集体安全安排,但并未明确规定具体的应对措施。她表示:“因此,巴基斯坦有很大的灵活性,可以通过情报共享和后勤支持来履行其义务,而无需在也门直接开展军事行动。”
Inter-Services Public Relations, the Pakistan armed forces' mouthpiece, did not respond to a request for comment. Sahar Khan, a nonresident fellow at the New York-based Institute for Global Affairs, said the Mecca pact is a collective security arrangement, but it does not specify a particular response.
专家进一步指出,巴基斯坦对胡塞武装的军事干预很可能会影响其与伊朗的关系,因为胡塞武装与伊朗站在同一阵营;不过胡塞武装方面否认了这一说法。
"So, Pakistan has a lot of flexibility and could meet its obligations by intelligence sharing and logistical support rather than conducting any operations in Yemen," she told Nikkei Asia. Experts further added that Pakistan's intervention against the Houthis would most likely impact its relations with Iran, as the Houthis align with Tehran. The rebels deny the alignment.
卡恩表示,伊斯兰堡通过展现自己能够与沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和美国进行对话的能力,已经获得了相当大的外交优势。“如果巴基斯坦直接参与也门冲突,这种外交优势将会受到威胁;任何进攻性行动都可能导致巴基斯坦失去与伊朗的联系,进而影响其在当今世界中的地缘政治地位。”
Khan said that Islamabad has gained considerable diplomatic capital presenting itself as a country capable of talking to Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S. "Direct participation in the Yemen conflict would put that role at risk. If Pakistan makes any offensive move, it risks losing access to Tehran and would lose its geopolitical spot in today's world," she said.
伊斯兰堡战略研究所研究海湾地区问题的学者阿尔哈玛·西迪卡指出,这一局势还具有经济层面的影响:“由于巴基斯坦在能源供应、贸易、海上航线以及在海湾国家的庞大侨民群体方面的利益关联,该国非常希望避免海湾地区局势进一步恶化。无论巴基斯坦被视作支持哪一方,地区冲突都将对它造成经济损失。”阿德南·阿米尔也是该研究的撰稿人之一。
Arhama Siddiqa, a research fellow covering the Persian Gulf region at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, said the situation also has an economic dimension. "Pakistan has a strong interest in avoiding wider escalation in the Gulf because of its links to energy supplies, trade, maritime routes, investment and the large Pakistani community in Gulf states," she said. "A broader regional conflict would create costs for Pakistan regardless of which side it was perceived to support." Adnan Aamir is a contributing writer.