并非所有人都认为存在可负担性危机。尽管许多美国人表示，生活成本是美国面临的首要问题，但根据对《政治报》（The POLITICO）民调的最新分析，唐纳德·特朗普总统的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）基本盘并不总是持相同看法。仅有28%自认为属于MAGA运动的选民表示，自特朗普上任以来，开支变得难以负担。事实上，MAGA选民更倾向于认为情况有所改善，而非恶化。
Not everyone thinks there’s an affordability crisis. While many Americans say the cost of living is the top issue facing the U.S. more than any other, President Donald Trump’s MAGA base does not always agree, according to a new analysis of The POLITICO Poll. Just 28 percent of voters who self-identify as part of the MAGA movement say expenses have become less affordable since Trump took office. In fact, MAGA voters are more likely to say things have gotten better rather than worse.
这与该国其他地区形成了鲜明对比，包括2024年支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民，以及投票支持特朗普但并未将自己视为MAGA运动一部分的选民。
That’s a stark break from the rest of the country, including the voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 and those who voted for Trump but do not identify as part of the MAGA movement.
《政治报》的民调结果揭示了共和党面临的一个复杂挑战：在这场以经济为核心的选举中，对生活成本的担忧正在加剧党派分歧——巩固了民主党对特朗普的反对立场——同时在共和党自身的基本盘中制造了裂痕。如今，共和党候选人正面临来自各方的不满选民。
The POLITICO Poll results reveal a complicated challenge for Republicans: In an election all about the economy, cost of living concerns are reinforcing partisanship divides — entrenching Democrats’ opposition to Trump — while also driving a wedge among Republicans’ own base. Now, GOP candidates are facing frustrated voters from all sides.
根据《政治报》对生活成本数据的分析，尽管面临相似的家用成本上涨，哈里斯的选民比特朗普的选民更有可能表示，自总统上任以来，食品、汽油和其他开支变得更加昂贵。
Harris voters are far more likely than Trump voters to say groceries, gas and other expenses have gotten more expensive since the president took office, despite facing similar increases in household costs, according to a POLITICO analysis of cost of living data.
民主党人希望借助这种挫败感在11月赢得胜利，并已将可负担性作为今年秋季的首要信息议题。他们有望从特朗普经济议程引发的反弹中获益——从其不受欢迎的关税到推高油价的伊朗战争——政治人物和策略师们普遍认为，这些因素正在激励民主党选民。
Democrats hope to ride that frustration to victory in November, and have made affordability their top messaging issue this fall. They’re poised to benefit from the backlash to Trump’s economic agenda — from his unpopular tariffs to an Iran war that’s raised gas prices — which politicians and strategists widely agree are helping motivate Democratic voters.
“那些民主党人肯定会去投票，”密歇根州共和党策略师杰森·罗说。“而我们有些选民稍微难动员去投票站，当他们愤怒、沮丧、失望、幻灭、不认同时，如果我们无法激发他们的积极性，那将是个问题。”《政治报》民调显示，许多这类幻灭的特朗普选民，并不认同自己是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）核心基本盘的一部分。
“Those Democrats are definitely going to go vote,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Roe. “And we've got some voters that are a little harder to get to the polls, and when they are mad, frustrated, disappointed, disillusioned, in disagreement, and we don't have them motivated, that's going to be a problem.” Many of those disillusioned Trump voters, The POLITICO Poll suggests, are the ones who don’t identify as part of the MAGA base.
请看这52%的非MAGA特朗普选民，他们表示所在地区的生活成本是“有史以来最差”的：近半数称他们要么不会在中期选举中投票给共和党人，要么仍在犹豫不决。
Consider the 52% of non-MAGA Trump voters who say the cost of living in their area is the “worst” it has ever been: Nearly half say they either wouldn’t vote for a Republican in the midterms or are still making up their minds.
但今天对民主党有利的事，日后可能成为他们的麻烦。民调结果显示，党派倾向也塑造了美国人对过去几年经济的记忆。
But what is a boon to Democrats today could be a problem for them later. Partisanship also shapes how Americans remember the economy in years past, the poll results show.
哈里斯选民对民主党总统的记忆更美好，特朗普选民对共和党总统的记忆更美好，双方都认为自家政党执政时生活更负担得起。
Harris voters have a more favorable memory toward Democratic presidents and Trump voters have a more favorable memory toward Republican presidents, each saying life was more affordable when their party held the reins.
民主党和共和党根本不共享对经济现实的理解——如果对过去没有共同认知框架，对当下是否好转也无共识，当经济成为关键议题时，任何执政党都可能在日益不满的反对派面前失去掌控力。今年，这将是共和党面临的一大挑战。
Democrats and Republicans simply don’t share an understanding of the economic reality — and without a common frame for the past, nor whether things are improving in the present, any party in power stands to lose its grip against an increasingly frustrated opposition when the economy is the key issue.
MAGA与非MAGA与民主党 《政治报》民调于上月向全美成年人询问了所在地区的负担能力，包括当地物价及他们对过去物价更低时期的记忆。
This year, that will be a major challenge for Republicans. MAGA vs. Non-MAGA vs. Democrats The POLITICO Poll asked adults across America last month about affordability in their area, including about local prices and their memory of when prices were more affordable in the past.
总体而言，哈里斯选民对经济的悲观程度超过了特朗普选民。而在特朗普选民中，非MAGA选民的悲观程度又超过了MAGA选民。
MAGA vs. Non-MAGA vs. Democrats The POLITICO Poll asked adults across America last month about affordability in their area, including about local prices and their memory of when prices were more affordable in the past.
例如，70%的哈里斯选民和52%的非“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）特朗普选民表示，生活成本比他们“有记忆以来任何时候”都要糟糕。MAGA特朗普选民则持不同意见——43%的多数受访者认为当前的生活成本很高，但他们“记得有过更糟糕的时候”。这些结果是对特朗普联盟的一个警示信号：在一项又一项的调查中，总统最忠实的选民基础依然站在他一边，但在2024年被他说服转而支持他的非MAGA选民中，他们的挫败感更接近哈里斯选民的感受。
Across the board, Harris voters outpaced Trump voters in their pessimism about the economy. And among Trump voters, non-MAGA voters outpaced their MAGA counterparts. For example, 70% of Harris voters and 52% of non-MAGA Trump voters say the cost of living is worse than they can “ever remember it being.” MAGA Trump voters disagreed — a 43% plurality said the cost of living today is bad, but they could “remember times when it was worse.” The results are a warning sign about the Trump coalition: In question after question, the president’s most loyal base is still sticking with him, but among the non-MAGA voters he convinced to back him in 2024, their frustration more closely resembles how Harris voters feel.
长期担任民主党策略家的杰西·弗格森（Jesse Ferguson）表示：“2024年投票给唐纳德·特朗普的选民中，有些人知道他让生活变得更昂贵，这次不会再投给他所在的政党。其中一些人会投给民主党人，有些人则不会投票。但他们不会把票投给一个他们认为是高生活成本罪魁祸首的共和党人。”在非MAGA特朗普选民中，那些认为生活成本是他们所见最差的人里，仅有53%表示如果中期选举明天举行，他们会投票给共和党人。超过25%的人表示会投票给民主党人或第三方候选人。其余的人表示将待在家里或尚未做出决定。
"There will be voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 who know he's made life more expensive and won't vote for his party this time," said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. "Some will vote for a Democrat, some won't vote. But they won't cast a ballot for a Republican who they blame for the high cost of living." Of the non-MAGA Trump voters who say the cost of living is the worst they’ve seen, just 53% say they would vote for a Republican if the midterms were held tomorrow. More than 25% would vote for a Democrat or third-party candidate. The rest say they would stay home or have not yet made up their minds.
根据《政治报》（POLITICO）对无党派公共福利公司“生活工资研究所”（Living Wage Institute）数据的分析，投票给特朗普的人和投票给哈里斯的人在家庭预算变化方面的平均情况相似。生活工资研究所的数据显示，从2025年初到2026年初，全美家庭预算平均增长了2.5%。
Changes to family budgets are similar on average among those that voted for Trump and those who voted for Harris, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from the Living Wage Institute, a nonpartisan public benefit corporation that produces cost of living data. Across the country, family budgets have increased by 2.5 percent on average from early 2025 to early 2026, according to the Living Wage Institute.
然而，究竟该由谁承担责任这一概念，导致了各个选民群体之间的分歧。尽管每个群体都担心可负担性——生活成本是每个群体最普遍的关注点——但只有MAGA特朗普选民仍然对现任政府抱有同情。
But it is the concept of who is to blame that creates division among each voting bloc. Though each group is concerned about affordability — the cost of living is the most common concern for each — only MAGA Trump voters remain sympathetic to the current administration.
年轻选民——尤其是年轻男性——在生活成本担忧中也对特朗普政府感到幻灭，这对共和党是一个警示信号。在那些表示生活成本是有史以来最糟糕的25岁以下人群中，56%的人表示信任民主党能降低成本。仅有20%的人信任共和党能做到这一点。
Young voters — and young men in particular — have also grown disillusioned with the Trump administration amid cost of living concerns, a warning sign for the GOP. Among those under the age of 25 who say the cost of living is the worst it’s ever been, 56% say they trust Democrats to bring down the costs. Just 20% trust Republicans to do the same.
“年轻人觉得体制不为他们服务，”正在竞选爱荷华州空缺且竞争激烈的第2选区的共和党人乔·米切尔说。现年29岁的米切尔如果当选，将成为第二位进入众议院的Z世代议员。“你会看到他们被一些像佐赫兰·马姆达尼这样的DSA候选人吸引。如果我们现在不为他们想出办法，他们就会被这些候选人吸引。”
“Young people feel like the system isn't working for them,” said Joe Mitchell, a Republican running for Iowa’s open and competitive 2nd District. Mitchell, who is 29, would be the second Gen Z member to join the House if elected. “You see them being attracted to some of these DSA candidates like Zohran Mamdani. And they're going to be attracted to these candidates if we don't figure something out for them now.” Partisanship even drives memory Partisanship also colors how Americans see the past, making it difficult for any incumbent party to convince voters of plans for the future.
党派之见甚至扭曲记忆 党派倾向也给美国人看待过去的方式蒙上色彩，使得任何执政党都难以说服选民相信其未来规划。
The POLITICO Poll asked respondents whether it was easier or harder to afford everyday items in years past compared to today in one of two ways: In one, they were asked about a specific calendar year, and in another, the presidential administration in power at the time.
《政治报》民调以两种方式询问受访者，与今天相比，过去几年负担日常用品是更容易还是更难：一种方式询问具体的日历年份，另一种方式询问当时执政的总统政府。
The POLITICO Poll asked respondents whether it was easier or harder to afford everyday items in years past compared to today in one of two ways: In one, they were asked about a specific calendar year, and in another, the presidential administration in power at the time.
在每个以日历年份为框架的问题上，特朗普和哈里斯的选民给出了相似的回答。但当被要求将特定总统任期内负担物品的难易程度与今天进行比较时，他们的回答按党派界线分裂。
For each question framed around a calendar year, Trump and Harris voters gave similar answers. But when asked to compare how easy or hard it was to afford things during a particular presidential administration compared to today, their answers split along party lines.
例如，哈里斯和特朗普的选民中均有略超三分之一的人表示，与今天相比，2024年负担日常用品“更容易”。但当被问及“[前总统]乔·拜登任期结束”时的同一问题时，55%的哈里斯选民表示日常用品更容易负担，而特朗普选民中这一比例为39%。
For example, just over a third of both Harris and Trump voters said it was “easier” to afford everyday items in 2024 compared to today. But when asked the same question about the “end of [former President] Joe Biden’s term,” 55% of Harris voters said everyday items were easier to afford, compared to 39% of Trump voters.
结果显示，美国人在最受关注的问题——生活成本——上缺乏共同的参照框架，这为希望赢得可能不愿倾听的新选民的政客制造了巨大的障碍。
The results show that Americans lack a common frame of reference on the issue most people care about — the cost of living — creating a massive hurdle for politicians hoping to win over new voters who may not be willing to listen.
同样的效应也出现在回顾民主党政府时期的特朗普选民身上。当被问及2010年与今天的物价对比时，63%的特朗普选民表示日常用品当时比现在更容易负担。但当被问及前总统奥巴马第一任期“中期”——即2010年——的物价时，只有36%的特朗普选民持相同看法。
The same effect happens among Trump voters looking back on a Democratic administration. When asked about costs in 2010 compared to today, 63% of Trump voters said everyday items were easier to afford then compared to now. But when asked about costs during the “middle” of former President Barack Obama’s first term — or 2010 — only 36% of Trump voters said the same.
只有当政党标签被附加上去时，美国人对真相的认知才会发生改变。
It’s only when a political party is attached that Americans’ version of the truth changes.
当《政治报》询问日常用品是在“新冠疫情爆发前”还是“2019年”更容易负担时，两党的大多数受访者在两种提问方式下都表示当时更容易负担。
When POLITICO asked whether it was easier or harder to afford everyday items “just before the Covid-19 pandemic” or in “2019,” majorities from both parties said things were easier to afford then, and in both framings.
共和党传讯策略师凯文·马登表示，两党面临的挑战在于，选民不知道“谁有更好的未来规划”。“相反，你看到的是国家其他地区与华盛顿之间出现了鸿沟——甚至是深渊。”
The challenge for both parties is that voters don’t know “who has a better plan for the future,” GOP communications strategist Kevin Madden said. “Instead, what you’re seeing is a gap — or a canyon — emerge between the rest of the country and Washington.”
他补充道：“当你看到这种鸿沟出现时，如果你是现任者，就要当心了。”
He added: “When you see that gap emerge, watch out if you’re an incumbent.”