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安迪·伯纳姆为工党年会带来积极氛围,但艰难抉择即将到来Andy Burnham brings good vibes to Labour’s annual conference but tough choices are coming

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伦敦—— 英国首相安迪·伯纳姆上任已有两个月,到目前为止,他的政党还没有要求他辞职。在当前这个背景下,这已经算是一项“成就”了。

JILL LAWLESS LONDON — British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has been in the job for two months, and so far his party isn’t demanding his head. These days, that’s an accomplishment.

执政的工党将于周日于利物浦的默西河畔召开年度大会。伯纳姆承诺要结束英国过去十年来的经济和政治动荡局面;自2016年英国决定退出欧盟以来,他已成为英国的第七任首相。

The governing Labour Party opens its annual conference beside the River Mersey in Liverpool on Sunday, with Burnham pledging to turn the page on a decade of economic and political turmoil that has made him the U.K.’s seventh prime minister since its 2016 vote to leave the European Union.

他在周六抵达利物浦时表示:“是时候让英国重新充满希望了。”他在周二的主题演讲中将进一步强调这一观点:“脱欧已经过去十年了,这十年里英国社会充满了分歧与动荡,我们必须彻底改变这种状况。”

He says his message in a keynote speech on Tuesday will be: “It’s time for Britain to have hope again.” “We’ve had a decade since Brexit and it’s been a decade of too much drift, too much division, and we need to draw a line on that,” Burnham said as he arrived in Liverpool on Saturday.

他的讲话既面向普通英国民众,也面向那些怀有希望但感到不安的中左翼选民——他们愿意相信伯纳姆关于改善现状的承诺,同时也担心中东冲突可能对英国经济造成的负面影响。

His message is aimed at both the British public and a center-left party that is hopeful but nervous — ready to embrace his promise of better times, but worried about economic damage rippling out from conflict in the Middle East.

曼彻斯特大学政治学教授罗布·福特指出,伯纳姆面临的艰巨任务是:如何在经济和财政形势极为严峻的背景下,赢得那些对变革持怀疑态度的选民的支持。

University of Manchester political science professor Rob Ford said Burnham’s difficult task is to win over “a skeptical electorate” eager for change, “while at the same time doing that within the constraints of a very difficult economic and fiscal situation.”

简而言之,问题就是:“如何用一碗‘冷粥’来欺骗选民,让他们误以为那是一份‘意大利辣香肠披萨’呢?”英国的主要政党通常都在九月或十月举行年度大会,这些大会既是鼓舞士气的集会,也是政策讨论的论坛,为接下来一年的政治走向和议程定下基调。

In short: “How do you serve people a bowl of cold porridge and convince them it’s a pepperoni pizza?” Britain’s main political parties all hold conferences in September and October, combinations of pep rally, social gathering and policy forum that set the political tone and agenda for the year ahead.

去年的工党大会气氛十分低迷:当时工党成员对凯尔·斯塔默首相的糟糕支持率感到绝望(尽管他在大选中以压倒性优势获胜),同时反移民政党“改革英国”的支持率却在不断上升。

Last year’s Labour gathering was gloomy, as members despaired about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s deep unpopularity, little more than a year after winning power in a landslide , and the seemingly unstoppable rise of the anti-immigration opposition party Reform UK .

当时担任大曼彻斯特市市长、广受欢迎 olan 伯纳姆在利物浦处处受到记者的关注;外界纷纷猜测他可能会挑战斯塔默的领导地位。

Burnham, then the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, was followed around Liverpool by journalists as speculation grew that he would challenge Starmer.

几个月后,局势终于达到了顶点:党内一片恐慌,迫使斯塔默辞职,伯纳姆接任党魁及首相职务。

Events came to a head months later when a panicky party forced Starmer’s resignation and his replacement by Burnham as party leader and prime minister in July.

如今,工党因伯纳姆积极向上的言论以及通过削减电费、限制公交票价等措施来帮助选民减轻经济负担而呈现出明显的“上升势头”。与此同时,改革党(Reform Party)正面临议会和警方的财务调查;不过该党最近还从两位加密货币亿万富翁那里获得了高达7200万英镑(约合9500万美元)的资金支持。

Now, Labour is seeing a “Burnham bounce” driven by the new leader’s upbeat talk and modest moves to put money in voters’ pocketbooks by cutting tax on electricity bills and capping bus fares. Meanwhile, Reform is facing parliamentary and police investigations over its finances – though it also recently received a whopping 72 million pounds ($95 million) from two cryptocurrency billionaires.

伯纳姆已经明确了一些优先事项,包括向地方领导人下放更多权力,以促进全国各地的经济增长。他表示将改革英国的私有化公用事业系统,尤其是那些运营成本高昂、存在严重泄漏问题且污染严重的供水系统。

Burnham has already set out some priorities, including handing more power to local leaders in order to generate “good growth in every post code.” He says he’ll reform Britain’s privatized utilities, especially the expensive, leaky and polluting water network.

虽然工党在伯纳姆的领导下相对团结,但他仍面临一个具有争议性的决策:是否批准在北海进行新的石油勘探活动。环保人士反对这一计划,而工会则表示支持;此外,工党还必须应对斯塔默执政期间制定的、旨在限制移民在英国永久定居的政策的反对声浪。

While the party is relatively united behind Burnham, he faces a divisive decision about whether to approve new oil drilling in the North Sea – opposed by environmentalists but backed by trade unions – and pushback over plans agreed under Starmer to make it harder for immigrants to settle permanently in Britain.

下一次大选原本可以推迟到2029年才举行,但工党的复兴引发了关于提前大选的讨论——不过伯纳姆本人否认自己正在考虑这一可能性。

The next general election does not have to be called until 2029, but Labour’s revival has sparked talk of a snap election – something Burnham denies he’s considering.

“关于提前大选的所有猜测,我都可以予以澄清,”伯纳姆周五在接受ITV电视台采访时说道。

“All of this speculation on an early election, I can knock that dead,” Burnham told broadcaster ITV on Friday. But no matter how upbeat Burnham is, economic pain is coming.

然而,无论伯纳姆的态度多么乐观,经济困境依然不可避免。他必须向党内成员和选民解释,他将如何应对因美伊战争反复爆发而导致的石油运输危机(这场战争严重限制了油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡的通行)。财政部长约翰·希利(John Healey)计划于10月28日公布伯纳姆政府的第一个预算案;随着能源价格的上涨,英国的生活成本压力正在不断加剧。与其他国家一样,英国也需要筹集资金来增加国防开支,以应对来自俄罗斯的威胁。这意味着增税或削减开支——或两者兼施——可能即将出台。

Burnham must explain to party members and voters how he will deal with economic turbulence from the on-off U.S.-Iran war, which has severely restricted the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury chief John Healey is set to deliver the Burnham government’s first budget on Oct. 28, with rising energy prices tightening a cost-of-living squeeze. Like other countries, Britain also needs to find money to increase defense spending to counter threats from Russia. That means tax rises or spending cuts – or both – could be on the cards. One thing that might bring an economic boost is to ease some of the trade barriers erected by Brexit . Burnham has pledged closer ties with the European Union, but it’s unclear how close.

可能带来经济提振的一件事,是缓解脱欧所竖起的一些贸易壁垒。伯纳姆承诺与欧盟建立更紧密的关系,但具体有多紧密尚不清楚。

Under Starmer, Labour was elected in 2024 on a promise not to seek to rejoin the bloc or enter its single market for goods, services and employment. Many Labour members would like to break that pledge, including former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who said last week that the U.K. and EU should start negotiations “where everything is on the table.” Burnham has said that’s a discussion for another time. Meanwhile, progress toward closer ties has been slow.

在斯塔默领导下,工党于2024年当选,承诺不寻求重新加入欧盟,也不进入其商品、服务和就业单一市场。许多工党党员希望打破这一承诺,包括前首相托尼·布莱尔,他上周表示,英国和欧盟应开始“所有议题均可商谈”的谈判。伯纳姆则表示,那是留待另一个时间讨论的问题。与此同时,推进更紧密关系的进展缓慢。

Under Starmer, Labour was elected in 2024 on a promise not to seek to rejoin the bloc or enter its single market for goods, services and employment. Many Labour members would like to break that pledge, including former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who said last week that the U.K. and EU should start negotiations “where everything is on the table.” Burnham has said that’s a discussion for another time. Meanwhile, progress toward closer ties has been slow.

原定于7月举行的欧英“重启”峰会,至少已推迟至11月,因为双方正在就欧盟的“欧洲制造”规则争执不下,英国称该规则将损害英国生产商利益。

An EU-U.K. reset summit initially penciled in for July has slipped to November at the earliest because the two sides are wrangling over the bloc’s “made in Europe” rules, which the U.K. says will hurt British producers.

福特表示,与迅速挥霍公众善意的斯塔默不同,伯纳姆保住了其“乐观主义者和高效沟通者”的声誉。但他称,伯纳姆“真正的严峻考验”尚未到来。

Ford said that unlike Starmer, who quickly squandered the public’s goodwill, Burnham has held onto his reputation “as an optimist and an effective communicator.” But he said Burnham’s “really stern test” is yet to come.

福特说:“账单依然会送到门口。他将不得不成为那个能向普通选民推销以下观点的首相:‘是的,你面前确实是一碗冷粥,但情况会好转的。’”

“The bills are still going to land on the doormat,” Ford said. “He’s going to have to be the prime minister who can sell the average voter on, ‘Yes, that is indeed a bowl of cold porridge in front of you, but it will get better.’”