多年来,订阅制企业一直受益于消费者行为的一个简单事实:人们注册订阅的能力远强于取消订阅的能力。
For years, subscription businesses have benefited from a simple fact of consumer behavior: people are much better atg up than canceling.
他们忘记了自己订阅了什么。他们不再使用服务却仍在持续付费。每月 9 美元或 15 美元的扣款可能在信用卡账单中隐形数月甚至数年。
They forget what they joined. They stop using services but keep paying. A $9 or $15 monthly charge can disappear into a credit card statement for months or even years.
随着 Meta Muse 本月推出——这是一款能处理个人生活多领域任务的个人智能体——订阅臃肿问题迅速成为显而易见的攻克目标。
With the rollout of Meta Muse this month, an personal agent that can handle tasks across many areas of personal life, it quickly became clear that subscription bloat was an easy target.
Muse 可帮助消费者识别并取消定期订阅。虽然订阅管理服务已存在多年,但 Muse 将这一功能整合进功能更广泛的个人助理中,有望让被遗忘的定期扣款更容易被发现并取消。
Muse can help consumers identify and cancel recurring subscriptions. While subscription-management services have existed for years, Muse brings that capability into a much broader personal assistant, potentially making forgotten recurring charges much easier to surface and cancel.
时机至关重要。据万事达卡与 FT Strategies 4 月发布的报告,近半数(44%)美国消费者在 2025 年增加了订阅支出,人均年支出升至 1887 美元,约合每月 157 美元。据美国银行支付数据,7 月订阅支出同比增长 7.7%,增速快于整体刷卡支出,其中娱乐和零售订阅约占总额的 43%。
And the timing matters. Close to half (44%) of U.S. consumers increased their subscription spending in 2025, with average annual spending rising to $1,887, or about $157 a month, according to a report published by Mastercard and FT Strategies in April. Subscription spend rose 7.7% year-over-year in July, faster than overall card spending, according to Bank of America payments data with entertainment and retail subscriptions accounting for about 43% of the total.
斯坦福大学经济学教授、斯坦福经济政策研究所所长 Neale Mahoney 研究了消费者未取消订阅时,订阅企业能获益多少。
Neale Mahoney, an economics professor at Stanford University and director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, has studied how much subscription businesses benefit when consumers fail to cancel.
Mahoney 表示:“我们发现,当人们被迫做决定时,取消订阅的可能性大约是原来的四倍。”他引用了自己与斯坦福经济学家 Liran Einav 和 Ben Klopack 合著、发表于 2025 年《美国经济评论》的论文《销售订阅》中的数据。在 AI 智能体时代,这一区别至关重要。
"We found that when people are forced to decide, they are about four times more likely to cancel," Mahoney said, citing data from his 2025 American Economic Review paper " Selling Subscriptions " co-authored with Stanford economists Liran Einav and Ben Klopack. That distinction matters in an AI agent world.
斯坦福大学的研究人员估计,由于消费者惰性(人们忘记或推迟取消)和取消阻力(终止订阅耗费过多时间或精力),卖家的收入大致可以翻倍。马洪尼表示,AI个人助理可能会削弱这两点。但并非所有订阅都同样脆弱。他说,实物订阅(如宠物食品)在产品不断送到家门口时很难被遗忘,而数字服务(如信用监控)则可能在消费者早已不再考虑它的很长一段时间后,仍悄悄持续扣费。
The Stanford researchers estimated that sellers can roughly double revenue because of consumer inertia, when people forget or put off canceling, and cancellation friction, when ending a subscription takes too much time or effort. AI personal agents could weaken both, Mahoney said. But not every subscription is equally vulnerable. A physical subscription, such as pet food, is hard to forget when the product keeps arriving at your door, he said, while a digital service, such as credit monitoring, can quietly keep billing long after a consumer stops thinking about it.
最终,AI个人助理对这种消费者心理的介入,其影响可能远远超出订阅范畴,并深入影响银行目前视为理所当然的核心金融服务中的决策制定。
Ultimately, the AI personal agent's intervention with this consumer psychology could have implications far beyond the subscription and influence decision-making deep within the core financial services that banks take for granted today.
阿波罗首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克在上周的一份分析中写道:“Muse及类似的代理式AI助理很快就能将家庭现金自动转入收益率为3.3%至5.0%的账户,而不是活期账户全国平均0.1%的收益率。如果每个家庭都使用AI助理来优化其现金余额的回报,银行可能会失去其赖以放贷的大量低成本存款,这将给整个金融系统带来问题。”
"Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts. If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok wrote in an analysis last week.
“生活中越来越多的东西正变成经常性账单” 消费者在削减订阅方面已经变得更加激进。
'More of life is becoming a recurring bill' Consumers already were becoming more aggressive about cutting subscriptions.
为银行、信用合作社和金融科技公司构建银行应用内订阅管理技术的ScribeUp表示,其会员发起取消的可能性现在是一年前的1.8倍。
ScribeUp, which builds subscription-management technology into banking apps for banks, credit unions, and fintech companies, says its members are now 1.8 times more likely to initiate a cancellation than they were a year ago.
“生活中越来越多的东西正变成经常性账单。这些账单每年都在增加,消费者越来越难以追踪他们支付的每一笔费用,”公司联合创始人兼首席执行官乔丹·麦克勒表示。他说,这种增长早于ScribeUp较新的AI功能,反映了消费者行为更广泛的变化。
"More of life is becoming a recurring bill. Those bills cost more every year, and it becomes increasingly difficult for consumers to keep track of everything they are paying for," said Jordan Mackler, the company's co-founder and CEO. He said that increase predates ScribeUp's newer AI capabilities and reflects a broader change in consumer behavior.
根据该公司数据,ScribeUp 用户的中位数经常性订阅付款现已超过 12 笔,而四分之一用户拥有 20 笔或更多。此外,过去一年中,拥有至少八笔订阅的用户比例从 62% 上升至 71%。
According to the company, the median ScribeUp user now has more than 12 recurring subscription payments, while 1 in 4 has 20 or more. In addition, the share of users with at least eight rose from 62% to 71% over the past year.
涨价会加速用户流失。Mackler 表示,当价格上涨时,单个商家的取消量可能激增高达 50%。Mackler 称,健康与健身类订阅的取消活动增幅最剧烈,同比增长 3.8 倍,其次是视频流媒体(2.2 倍)、新闻媒体(2.1 倍)和音乐流媒体(1.9 倍)。
Price hikes can accelerate the exit. Mackler said cancellations at an individual merchant can jump as much as 50% when prices rise. Health and fitness subscriptions have seen the sharpest increase in cancellation activity, up 3.8 times year-over-year, followed by video streaming at 2.2 times, news and media at 2.1 times, and music streaming at 1.9 times, said Mackler.
Mackler 表示,AI 正在增加 ScribeUp 可帮助消费者管理的订阅数量。该公司目前追踪约 20 万家独特的经常性收费方。在今年新增代理式能力之前,它仅能为几百家主要订阅公司实现自动取消。
Mackler said AI is increasing the number of subscriptions ScribeUp can help consumers manage. The company currently tracks roughly 200,000 unique recurring billers. Before adding its newer agentic capabilities this year, it could automate cancellations for only a few hundred major subscription companies.
平均每笔被取消的订阅每月花费 17.39 美元,Mackler 称 ScribeUp 平均每年为用户节省超过 300 美元,用于那些用户未意识到仍在支付或不再需要的经常性账单。“遗忘的高昂经济学”将终结?
The average canceled subscription costs $17.39 a month, and Mackler said ScribeUp saves users more than $300 a year on average on recurring bills they didn't realize they were paying for or no longer needed. An end to the costly economics of forgetting?
订阅公司已面临显著的客户流失。Mastercard 报告发现,平均月流失率——即某月取消或未续订的用户百分比——为 20%。但接受调查的美国订阅企业中,超过一半表示,其用户群中至少有 10% 处于非活跃状态,意味着这些客户仍在付费,却未主动使用服务。
Subscription companies are already dealing with significant customer turnover. The Mastercard report found average monthly churn — the percentage ofrs who cancel or fail to renew in a given month — is 20%. But more than half of U.S. subscription businesses surveyed said at least 10% of theirr base was inactive, meaning those customers were stilld but were not actively using the service.
随着消费者对经常性扣费掌握更多控制权,订阅公司可能需要更努力地竞争以留住用户。
As consumers gain more control over recurring charges, subscription companies may need to compete harder to keep them.
专注于产品驱动增长与客户留存的 Zendesk 首席产品经理 Hitee Chandra Jha 表示,公司可能需要在用户进入取消页面前,让价值更加显性化。
Hitee Chandra Jha, principal product manager at Zendesk who specializes in product-led growth and customer retention, said companies may need to make value more visible before a customer reaches the cancellation screen.
对某些公司而言,这可能意味着不再将取消视为非此即彼的事件。Jha 表示,对于已看完某部剧集的流媒体用户,提供暂停选项可能比给出绝望的折扣更有效。对于已达成目标的健身应用用户,则可将其转入维持层级,或提供其他路径以保持其参与度。
For some companies, that could mean treating cancellation less as an all-or-nothing event. Jha said a streaming service whose customer has finished watching a series might be better off offering a pause rather than a desperate discount. A fitness-app user who has reached a goal could be moved to a maintenance tier or offered another path to stay engaged, she said.
订阅管理公司 Recurly 的数据表明,这种灵活性行之有效。其基于 2200 多家企业、7600 万独立用户的《2026 年订阅现状报告》显示,“先暂停后取消”选项的使用率激增 337%,且四分之三的暂停用户最终选择回归。
Data from subscription-management company Recurly suggests that kind of flexibility can work. In its 2026 State of Subscriptions report based on 76 million uniquers across more than 2,200 businesses, it found that the use of "pause before cancel" options jumped 337%, and three out of four customers who paused eventually returned.
Meta CEO 扎克伯格将 Muse 视为其 AI 战略的“核心”,该战略将围绕尚未被验证的消费级硬件展开,从增强现实眼镜到 Muse Charm 这种钥匙扣式设备,但这是市场近期奖励该公司做出的押注。
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg envisions Muse as the "centerpiece" of an AI strategy that will be surrounded by still unproven consumer hardware, from augmented reality glasses to the Muse Charm keychain fob-like device, but it is a bet that the market has recently rewarded the company for making.
该 AI 遭遇了亚马逊的抵制,后者阻止了 Muse 在其网站上购物,称该代理的访问违反了其服务条款。将财务信息授予 AI 访问权限也引发了重大的隐私担忧。但根据 Recurly 数据,43% 的消费者表示他们愿意让 AI 管理自己的订阅。
The AI has encountered pushback from Amazon which blocked Muse from shopping on its site, saying the agent's access violated its terms of service. There are also significant concerns about privacy when giving an AI access to financial information. But 43% of consumers said they are comfortable with AI managing their subscriptions, according to the Recurly data.
“将取消视为一种过渡,而不仅仅是损失,这正是成熟留存策略与防御性策略的区别所在,”Jha 表示。“应对 AI 辅助取消的最佳防御手段不是设置阻碍,”她补充道。
"Treating cancellation as a transition, not just a loss, is what differentiates a mature retention strategy from a defensive one," Jha said. "The best defense against AI-assisted cancellation is not friction," she added.
Mastercard 的研究指向同一方向。受访消费者中,74% 表示如果取消容易,他们更有可能留下,而 70% 表示更有可能重新订阅。另有 34% 表示,如果提供暂停而非取消的选项,他们会选择留下。
Mastercard's research points in the same direction. Of the consumers surveyed, 74% said they are more likely to when cancellation is easy, while 70% said they are more likely to resubscribe. Another 34% said they would remaind if they were given the option to pause rather than cancel. Instead of spelling the end of subscription growth, AI could instead put more pressure on companies to find new ways to convince customers of value.
人工智能或许不会终结订阅业务的增长,反而可能给企业带来更大压力,迫使其寻找新的方式来向客户证明其价值。
ScribeUp has seen that once users trust that the recurring charges on their accounts are the ones they actually chose, they become more comfortable with subscriptions overall and increase their total subscription spending.
ScribeUp 发现,一旦用户相信账户上的定期扣款正是他们主动选择的项目,他们对订阅服务的整体接受度就会提高,并增加订阅总支出。
ScribeUp has seen that once users trust that the recurring charges on their accounts are the ones they actually chose, they become more comfortable with subscriptions overall and increase their total subscription spending.
麦克勒表示:“如果消费者相信可以轻松查看、管理和取消定期扣款,我们的数据显示,他们更有可能扩大整体定期支出,并且更愿意尝试新服务。”
"If consumers trust that they can easily see, manage, and cancel recurring charges, our data shows they are likely to expand their overall recurring spend and are more willing to try new services in the first place," Mackler said.
马奥尼认为,一个更健康的市场应催生出那些不依赖阻碍消费者、而是提供更多方式让消费者按自身意愿留存的企业。他说:“当人们被困在不想保留或无法退出的订阅中时,市场机制的作用受到限制,企业也就缺乏以低价提供高质量产品的动力。它们只需依赖被锁定的用户基础即可。”
According to Mahoney, a healthier market should produce businesses that don't rely on ways to slow consumers down but give them more ways to stay on their own terms. "When people are trapped in subscriptions they don't want or can't get out of, market forces are limited, and companies don't have the incentives to have a high-quality product at a low price. They can just rely on a locked-in install base," he said.
马奥尼指出,无论是人工智能还是消费者主动采取行动,当人们停止为不再需要的服务付费并将资金转向其他用途时,“这对消费者有利,对市场有利,也对那些生产人们真正想要的产品的企业有利。这才是经济学应有的运作方式。”请在 Google 上将 CNBC 信息源,不错过这家最受信赖的商业新闻媒体带来的每一刻动态。
Whether it is AI or the consumer taking action, when people stop paying for something they no longer want and spend that money elsewhere, "that's good for consumers, it's good for markets, and it's good for firms that are making products that people want," Mahoney said. "That's economics working the way it's supposed to work." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.