文：Shery Ahn 和 Akemi Terukina据一位向首相高市早苗提供建议的小组成员表示，日本防卫开支的任何扩大都可能分摊到许多年，不应在任何单一年份成为引发重大市场焦虑的来源。
By Shery Ahn and Akemi Terukina Any expansion of Japan’s defense spending will likely be spread over many years and shouldn’t become a source of significant market anxiety in any single year, according to a member of a panel that advises Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
“我认为这只是一个10年、15年内的长期目标，”东方汇理首席经济学家会田卓司周一在接受彭博电视采访时表示。他称，按这个节奏，不应让市场“感到焦虑”。会田表示，高市标志性政策之一的370万亿日元（约合2.3万亿美元）公私投资计划（针对战略领域）设计为持续至2040年，这表明较高的防卫开支很可能也会遵循类似的长期框架。会田是首相增长战略小组的成员。
“I think this is just a longer-term goal within 10 years, 15 years,” Takuji Aida, chief economist at Credit Agricole, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. He said at that pace, it shouldn’t make the market “feel anxiety.” Aida said Takaichi’s ¥370 trillion ($2.3 trillion) public-private investment plan for strategic sectors, another of her signature policies, is designed to run through 2040, suggesting that higher defense spending would likely follow a similarly long-term framework. Aida is a member of the premier’s growth strategy panel.
他的言论正值投资者审视高市政府的财政管理之际，防卫开支是重点关注领域之一。彭博社本月早些时候报道，日本正考虑设定新的中期目标，在10年内将防卫开支提高至国内生产总值（GDP）的3.5%，大体与北约成员国和其他一些美国盟友采用的目标一致。
His comments come as investors scrutinize the Takaichi administration’s fiscal management, with defense spending among the key areas in focus. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Japan is considering a new medium-term target to raise defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product over 10 years, broadly in line with targets adopted by NATO members and some other US allies.
会田在电视露面后表示，日本可以通过将直接防卫支出与政府增长战略中已包含的两用支出相结合，在10至15年内将防卫开支提高至GDP的3.5%。
Aida said after his TV appearance that Japan could raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP over 10 to 15 years by combining direct defense outlays with dual-use spending already included in the government’s growth strategy.
高市政府一直在推进多项昂贵项目，包括为期14年的增长战略和暂时降低食品消费税，这引发了投资者对这些措施将如何融资的疑虑。这些担忧加上全球债券抛售，导致日本收益率上行，基准10年期收益率徘徊在3%左右，接近三十年来的最高水平。
Takaichi’s government has been pursuing multiple costly projects, including a 14-year growth strategy and a temporary cut to the food consumption tax, raising questions among investors about how the measures will be financed. Those concerns, combined with a global bond selloff, have put upward pressure on Japanese yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield hovering around 3%, near its highest level in three decades.
“佐奈经济学并非再通胀政策，”会田说道，呼应了财务大臣片山沙月上周的言论。会田表示，佐奈经济学以旨在扩大总供给的投资为核心，这与通过财政刺激和货币宽松来提振总需求的再通胀政策形成对比。“那完全是两码事，”他说道。
“Sanaenomics is not a reflationary policy,” Aida said, echoing remarks Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama made last week. Aida said Sanaenomics is centered on investment aimed at expanding aggregate supply, in contrast with reflationary policies that seek to boost aggregate demand through fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. “That is totally different,” he said.
关于370万亿日元投资计划下公私支出的细分，会田表示，政府计划在年底前提供更多细节，说明其预期的投资类型和旨在实现的成果。
On the breakdown of public and private spending under the ¥370 trillion investment plan, Aida said the government plans to provide more details by year-end on the types of investment it expects and the outcomes it aims to achieve.
此外，会田表示，他预计日本央行下一次加息将在1月——这一时点比市场主流预期略晚。他称，包括中东局势紧张在内的外部因素加快了近期收紧的步伐。他预计一旦这些压力缓解，日本央行将恢复大约每六个月一次的加息节奏。
Separately, Aida said he expects the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike to come in January — a timing that’s a bit later than the prevailing view in the market. He said external factors, including tensions in the Middle East, have accelerated the recent pace of tightening. He expects the BOJ to return to a roughly once-every-six-months pace once those pressures abate.
正如普遍预期的那样，央行本月初将政策利率上调至1.25%，九名政策委员中有两人投了反对票。这两名由高市早苗任命的委员投下的反对票，因给市场留下政府不愿看到更快加息步伐的印象，导致日元走弱。
As widely expected, the central bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% earlier this month, with two of its nine board members dissenting. The dissent by the two Takaichi appointees contributed to yen weakness by giving markets the impression the government was reluctant to see a faster pace of rate hikes.
会田表示，这两张反对票对于铺平日本央行未来恢复正常加息节奏的道路至关重要。
Aida said the two dissenting votes were important in paving the way for the BOJ to return to a normal pace of rate hikes in the future.