从牛肉到柴油,白宫为降低物价——中期选举选民最关心的问题——所做的努力迄今为止均未见成效。
From beef to diesel, White House efforts to bring down prices — the top concern among midterm voters — have failed so far to pan out.
首先是一项允许免税进口牛肉的提议,但这立即激怒了美国的农民和牧场主。
First came a proposal to permit tariff-free beef imports, but that immediately angered America’s farmers and ranchers.
随后是一项禁止国内柴油出口的计划,但遭到了大型石油公司的抵制。
Then came a plan to ban exports of domestic diesel fuel, but that met with pushback from major oil companies.
在此期间,唐纳德·特朗普总统提出了一个想法:如果共和党能保持对国会的控制,就直接向对高昂食品和汽油价格感到不满的美国成年人发放5000美元的支票(民调显示选民对此感到沮丧)。但这个想法也受到了抨击,甚至连一些担心其对预算赤字造成潜在影响的共和党议员也提出了质疑。
In between, President Donald Trump pitched the idea of simply cutting $5,000 checks to adult Americans frustrated, polls show, by high food and gas prices — if the GOP maintains control of Congress. But that idea, too, has come under fire, even from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the potential hit to the budget deficit.
距离选举日仅剩五周,白宫提出了多种应对持续通胀的方案,而通胀的涨幅已经超过了工资的增长。但专家表示,目前尚不清楚特朗普能否执行任何能够安抚受通胀困扰的选民并帮助共和党保持国会控制权的政策。
With just five weeks until Election Day, the White House has thrown out multiple ideas for combating persistent inflation, which has outpaced wage growth. But experts say it is unclear whether Trump can execute any policy that would placate inflation-weary voters and help the GOP maintain control of Congress.
布鲁金斯学会哈钦斯财政与货币政策中心主任大卫·韦塞尔表示:“这些都是政府对他们部分造成的问题感到恐慌的症状。”
“These are symptoms of panic in the administration about problems that they have in part created,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.
经济学家指出,自2021年以来,通胀率一直高于美联储的目标利率,但特朗普的一系列政策加剧了这一问题。特朗普决定加入以色列对伊朗的战争,扰乱了全球石油供应,导致能源价格上涨。他的关税政策推高了部分进口商品的价格。此外,他政府采取的移民打击行动使得低成本劳动力更难获得,从而使国内企业面临持续的价格压力。
Inflation has been running over the Federal Reserve’s target rate since 2021, but an array of Trump policies have fed the problem, economists say. Trump’s decision to join Israel in going to war with Iran has disrupted the global oil supply, leading to elevated energy rates. His tariffs have produced higher prices for some imported goods. And his administration’s immigration crackdown has made low-cost labor harder to find, keeping price pressures on domestic companies high.
消费者的不满情绪在各项民意调查中得到了体现:支持与反对特朗普总统表现的人之间的差距持续扩大。在最近由 SSRS 为 CNN 进行的一项调查中,73% 的美国人表示不赞成特朗普处理经济问题的方式;只有 27% 的人表示赞同他的做法——这是该调查有记录以来特朗普在这一问题上的最低支持率。在这种背景下,特朗普提出了一系列旨在降低物价的政策。
Consumer frustration is reflected in polling. The gap has steadily widened between voters who approve of and disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, and 73 percent of Americans said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy in a recent poll conducted by SSRS for CNN. Only 27 percent approved — his lowest approval rating on the issue ever recorded by the survey. Against that backdrop, Trump has floated a parade of ideas for cutting prices.
“特朗普总统承诺为普通美国民众降低生活成本并提高实际工资,政府正在认真评估所有可行的方案以实现这一目标,”白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中表示。
“President Trump pledged to lower costs and raise real wages for everyday Americans, and the Administration continues to rigorously evaluate every option on the table to deliver,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.
然而,穆迪分析公司(Moody’s Analytics)的首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出:“从宏观角度来看,这些政策的作用微乎其微……甚至可能毫无效果。”这位经济学家认为:“这些措施根本无法缓解民众面临的 affordability(即‘负担能力’)危机。”
On top of the political hurdles, however, these policies have been “small in the grand scheme of things … if they’re helpful at all,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “So it’s not like it’s moving the dial on the affordability crisis.” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a conservative-leaning think tank, said it’s not uncommon for politicians to try to bring down prices in the run-up to elections, especially when their party’s control of Washington is at risk.
保守派智库美国行动论坛(American Action Forum)的主席道格拉斯·霍尔茨-埃金(Douglas Holtz-Eakin)也表示:“在选举前夕,政客们试图通过各种手段降低物价是很常见的现象,尤其是当他们的政党在华盛顿的执政地位受到威胁时。”
President Joe Biden did the same ahead of the 2022 midterms, notably by calling for a federal gas tax holiday and releasing millions of barrels of oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to bring down sky-high gas prices.
乔·拜登总统在 2022 年中期选举前也采取了类似措施,他呼吁实施联邦汽油税减免政策,并从国家战略石油储备中释放数百万桶石油,以缓解高企的汽油价格。
“This whack-a-mole with particular prices is something the Biden guys tried,” said Holtz-Eakin, who was a senior economic adviser to President George W. Bush and the 2008 presidential campaign of then-Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona). “It doesn’t solve the economic problem, and it doesn’t seem particularly politically successful.” For Trump, time is running out, said Rebecca Patterson, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
霍尔茨-埃金曾担任乔治·W·布什总统的高级经济顾问,以及时任亚利桑那州共和党参议员约翰·麦凯恩(John McCain)的2008年总统竞选团队成员,他表示:“拜登政府采取的这些临时性措施其实只是‘治标不治本’,在经济问题上并无实质性的改善效果;从政治角度来看,这些措施也并未取得显著成效。”
“This whack-a-mole with particular prices is something the Biden guys tried,” said Holtz-Eakin, who was a senior economic adviser to President George W. Bush and the 2008 presidential campaign of then-Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona). “It doesn’t solve the economic problem, and it doesn’t seem particularly politically successful.” For Trump, time is running out, said Rebecca Patterson, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的高级研究员丽贝卡·帕特森(Rebecca Patterson)指出:“对特朗普来说,时间已经所剩无几了。”
The U.S. economy is so big and so complex that improving affordability “is simply not something anyone can do in a month,” Patterson said. “Actions taken today might help in the medium and longer term. But between now and the election, the best you can hope for is that voters appreciate that you’re trying.” One idea the administration has executed is buying back Treasury bonds. But so far, the payoff has been minimal.
美国经济规模庞大且极其复杂,帕特森表示,改善可负担性“绝非任何人能在一个月内完成的事”。“今天采取的行动或许在中长期有所帮助。但在现在和大选之间,最多只能指望选民认可你在努力。”政府执行的一个想法是回购国债。但到目前为止,成效微乎其微。
In part because of the competition for cash from massive private-sector spending on artificial intelligence, investors are demanding higher interest rates for Treasury bonds. Higher bond yields, in turn, raise interest rates for consumer loans such as mortgages. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7 percent last week for the first time since January 2025.
部分原因是私营部门在人工智能上的巨额支出争夺现金,投资者要求国债提供更高的利率。更高的债券收益率反过来又推高了抵押贷款等消费贷款的利率。上周,30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率升至7%,为2025年1月以来首次。
In August, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced he would intervene in the bond market by buying back longer-term Treasury bonds to try to slow the rise in yields. That has not yet worked in bringing down yields, though Bessent contended in a recent congressional hearing that it is nonetheless a success because “we then proceeded to have the two most successful Treasury auctions that we’ve had in 20 years.” While Bessent was wrestling with the bond market, Trump decided to tackle meat prices.
8月,财政部长斯科特·贝森特宣布,将通过回购长期国债干预债券市场,试图遏制收益率上涨。这尚未奏效降低收益率,尽管贝森特在最近的国会听证会上辩称这依然是成功的,因为“随后我们进行了20年来最成功的两次国债拍卖。”当贝森特在与债券市场博弈时,特朗普决定解决肉价问题。
In late August, the president signed a proclamation that rolled back tariffs on foreign beef trimmings for 90 days in an effort to boost imports and lower ground beef prices, which have risen almost 25 percent since the beginning of Trump’s second term.
8月下旬,总统签署公告,将外国牛肉碎肉的关税下调90天,旨在增加进口并降低绞肉价格,自特朗普第二任期开始以来,绞肉价格已上涨近25%。
But that drew rare pushback from farm-state Republicans, including Sen. Chuck Grassley (Iowa), Sen. Pete Ricketts (Nebraska), Sen. Roger Marshall (Kansas) and Rep. Ashley Hinson (Iowa), who is running in a competitive Senate election in her state.
但这招致了农业州共和党人的罕见反对,其中包括参议员查克·格拉斯利(爱荷华州)、参议员皮特·里克茨(内布拉斯加州)、参议员罗杰·马歇尔(堪萨斯州)和众议员阿什利·欣森(爱荷华州),后者正在其州参加一场竞争激烈的参议员选举。
The lawmakers argued that a flood of cheap foreign beef would undermine American farmers and ranchers, who are already struggling with high fuel, grain and fertilizer prices due to the Iran war and other factors.
议员们辩称,大量廉价外国牛肉涌入将冲击美国农民和牧场主,他们已因伊朗战争等因素导致的燃油、谷物和化肥价格高企而苦苦挣扎。
Trump issued a follow-up executive order aimed at helping ranchers, and the Agriculture Department announced new policies aimed at supporting American beef producers. The administration is now reportedly considering reversing course on beef imports — though the White House has denied that.
特朗普签署了一项后续行政令旨在帮助牧场主,农业部也宣布了旨在支持美国牛肉生产商的新政策。据报道,政府目前正考虑在牛肉进口问题上反悔——尽管白予已予以否认。
Then came the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump made his biggest pitch yet: If Republicans keep both the House and Senate on Nov. 3, Trump said he would give every adult American a $5,000 dividend to spend within the United States.
随后在达拉斯举行的共和党中期选举大会上,特朗普抛出了迄今最大的承诺:如果共和党在11月3日保住众参两院多数席位,他将向每位美国成年人发放5000美元红利,要求在美国境内消费。
Some Republican lawmakers applauded the idea, but others were skeptical, saying the checks not only could exacerbate inflation but also could increase historically large budget deficits. The proposal could cost more than $1 trillion at a time when concern is growing about the nation’s outsize debt, which recently surpassed $40 trillion.
部分共和党议员为该想法鼓掌,但也有人持怀疑态度,称这不仅可能加剧通胀,还可能扩大历史上巨额的预算赤字。该提案成本可能超过1万亿美元,而此时外界对国家高企债务的担忧正在加剧,债务规模最近已突破40万亿美元。
Some Republican lawmakers applauded the idea, but others were skeptical, saying the checks not only could exacerbate inflation but also could increase historically large budget deficits. The proposal could cost more than $1 trillion at a time when concern is growing about the nation’s outsize debt, which recently surpassed $40 trillion.
公共利益团体猛烈抨击该想法;倾向左派的消费者监督组织“公共公民”联合主席丽莎·吉尔伯特称其为“赤裸裸且绝望的买票企图”。选民基本未被说服:本月早些时候发布的YouGov民调显示,64%的美国成年人认为,如果共和党赢得大选,他们大概率或肯定拿不到这笔红利。
Public interest groups blasted the idea; Lisa Gilbert, co-president of the left-leaning consumer watchdog Public Citizen, called it an “explicit and desperate attempt to buy votes.” And voters largely have not been swayed: A YouGov poll released earlier this month found that 64 percent of U.S. adults felt they would probably or definitely not receive the dividend if Republicans were to win the election. So far, there have been few signs of interest on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers would have to draft legislation to authorize the checks and vote to approve it.
目前国会山鲜有回应迹象,议员们需要起草立法授权发放支票并投票批准。
So far, there have been few signs of interest on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers would have to draft legislation to authorize the checks and vote to approve it.
上周,柴油价格触及历史新高后,特朗普和贝森特提出了应对燃油价格飙升的新思路:禁止柴油出口。他们的理论是,禁令将增加美国消费者可用的柴油供应,从而降低加油站价格。
Last week, after diesel prices hit a record high, Trump and Bessent announced a new idea for tackling soaring fuel prices: a ban on diesel exports. Their theory was that a ban would boost the diesel supply for American consumers, lowering the price at the pump.
几位处于激烈竞争的国会选区的共和党候选人支持这一想法。但主要石油公司和能源部长克里斯·赖特表示反对,认为这种政策会激励公司减少柴油生产,从而进一步推高燃油价格。
Several Republican candidates in competitive congressional races supported the idea. But major oil companies and Energy Secretary Chris Wright objected, arguing that such a policy would incentivize companies to lower diesel production, which would further raise fuel prices.
到本周中旬,柴油出口禁令的命运似乎也变得不确定:赖特表示,任何针对柴油出口的新限制很可能都是自愿性的。
By midweek, the fate of the diesel export ban, too, seemed uncertain: Wright said any new limits on diesel exports were likely to be voluntary.