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在竞选巴西总统的过程中,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗考验着能否继承其父的政治遗产。In run for Brazil's presidency, Flavio Bolsonaro tests staying power of his father's legacy

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圣保罗,9月28日——在那个四壁空空、仅有12平方米的牢房里,巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因策划政变未遂正在服27年刑期。他将自己最宝贵的资产传给了长子:支持他在2026年追随自己的政治脚步。

SAO PAULO, Sept 28 - From the bare-walled, 12-square-meter cell where he was serving a 27-year sentence for a failed coup plot, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro passed his most prized asset to his eldest son: his blessing to follow in his political footsteps in 2026.

“走吧,就是你了。”10月4日总统大选的主要右翼候选人、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗回忆说,2025年底,父亲在牢房空调的轰鸣声中对他说了这句话。

"Let's go, it's you," Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the main right-wing candidate in the October 4 presidential election, remembers his father telling him in late 2025, over the rattle of the cell's air-conditioning unit.

小博索纳罗立即接受了这一使命:“他受到羞辱并被定罪,是因为体制不希望他出现在公众生活中。”去年12月,在宣布竞选总统后不久,他这样告诉路透社。

The younger Bolsonaro immediately accepted the mission: "He was humiliated and convicted because the system did not want him in public life," he told Reuters last December, soon after announcing his candidacy for the presidency.

现在,这对父子有机会向那些政客、法官和特殊利益集团进行报复,他们认为正是这些人将雅伊尔·博索纳罗赶出了公众生活,并终结了他对这个拉丁美洲最大经济体进行的极右翼民粹主义改造。

The two men now have a chance to exact revenge on the politicians, judges and special interests they blame for driving Jair Bolsonaro from public life and ending his far-right, populist makeover of Latin America's largest economy.

这位45岁的参议员目前的民调支持率与左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦不相上下。卢拉长期以来一直是该地区最有权势的人物之一,目前正在寻求第四个非连续任期。

The 45-year-old senator is polling neck and neck with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has long been one of the region's most powerful figures and is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

博索纳罗竞选势头的强劲,以及右翼选民对这位前总统的忠诚,使巴西成为了全球许多左翼人士所信奉观点的一个试验场:即起诉并监禁一位民粹主义领导人,是否能够遏制他或她所建立的运动。

The strength of Bolsonaro's bid, and the loyalty of the right-wing electorate to the former president, have turned Brazil into a test case for a belief embraced by many on the left around the world: that prosecuting and imprisoning a populist leader can contain the movement he or she built.

圣保罗英斯佩尔研究所(Insper)的政治学教授卡洛斯·梅洛表示,前总统博索纳罗可能只是巴西乃至全球长期存在的一场运动中最响亮的领袖人物。“极右翼不仅仅局限于博索纳罗,”他补充道。“必须是博索纳罗”小博索纳罗竞选势头的竞争力让许多人感到意外。

Carlos Melo, a professor of politics at Sao Paulo's Insper institution, said that former President Bolsonaro may be the most vocal figurehead of a movement that has long existed in Brazil and worldwide. "The far-right goes beyond Bolsonaro," he added. 'IT HAD TO BE A BOLSONARO' The competitiveness of the younger Bolsonaro's bid for power came as a surprise to many.

与他的兄弟们不同,他曾面临腐败指控;据检察官称,他主导了一项非法贿赂计划,该计划使前警察阿德里亚诺·达·诺布雷加(Adriano da Nobrega)的亲属从中获利。阿德里亚诺·达·诺布雷加被指控领导了一个雇佣杀手团伙。

Unlike his brothers, he had faced corruption allegations, including leading an alleged kickback scheme that prosecutors said benefited relatives of Adriano da Nobrega, a former police officer accused of heading a gang of hired killers.

在这位前总统的三个长子中,这位参议员也是最不具攻击性的一个——他摒弃了父亲在政治生涯中惯用的强硬作风,试图以“更加温和、更注重平衡”的形象出现。他的参选声明令金融市场陷入动荡:在竞选期间,银行家们要么参加高层会议,要么保持谨慎的态度、保持距离。

Of the former president's three eldest sons, the senator was also the least combative, softening the edge that was central to his father's rise and presenting himself as a "more centered Bolsonaro." The announcement of his candidacy rattled markets, with bankers alternating between high-level meetings and cautious distance for much of the campaign. Other conservative parties were skeptical, too, with some right-wing candidates announcing their own bids for the presidency.

其他保守派政党也持怀疑态度;一些右翼候选人宣布自己将参加总统选举。

Other conservative parties were skeptical, too, with some right-wing candidates announcing their own bids for the presidency.

几个月来,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗(Flavio Bolsonaro)试图说服其他人加入他的竞选团队,但未能成功;最终,他选择了自己所属的自由党(Liberal Party)中一位鲜为人知的议员作为自己的竞选搭档。

For months, Flavio Bolsonaro tried and failed to convince others to join his ticket, ultimately settling on a little-known lawmaker from his own Liberal Party as his running mate. "There was an initial lack of communication, owing perhaps to Flavio's first presidential run," said conservative Senator Tereza Cristina, a prominent agribusiness leader who was prevented from accepting the role of Bolsonaro's running mate by her party's leadership.

“起初双方缺乏沟通,这可能是因为弗拉维奥此前从未参加过总统选举,”保守派参议员特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜(Tereza Cristina)说道。特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜是一位杰出的农业产业领袖,但由于党内领导层的反对,她未能成为博索纳罗的竞选搭档。

Still, Liberal Party loyalists seemed confident of their choice. "It had to be a Bolsonaro," Valdemar Costa Neto, the head of the Liberal Party, told Reuters.

尽管在国内最初遭遇冷遇,但博索纳罗的参选计划很快得到了全球保守派势力的支持。这些保守派势力希望巴西能加入这一地区性的右翼浪潮——此前,阿根廷的哈维尔·米莱(Javier Milei)、萨尔瓦多的纳伊布·布克莱(Nayib Bukele)和厄瓜多尔的丹尼尔·诺博阿(Daniel Noboa)都曾通过这种途径上台执政。

GLOBAL CONSERVATIVE EMBRACE Despite the initial sour welcome at home, Senator Bolsonaro's bid was quickly embraced by the global conservative movement, which is eager to see Brazil join the regional right-wing wave that has brought Argentina's Javier Milei, El Salvador's Nayib Bukele and Ecuador's Daniel Noboa to power. Senator Bolsonaro has followed the same playbook as many of those Latin American right-wing populists, uniting conservative factions around Christian traditionalism, free-market economics, and a fierce hostility to the left.

博索纳罗采用了许多拉丁美洲右翼民粹主义者的策略:他通过强调基督教传统主义、自由市场经济以及对左翼的强烈敌意,来团结各个保守派派系。

He is pledging to cut taxes and embark on an aggressive fiscal adjustment to lower long-term borrowing costs in Brazil. The platform has pleased the business community and investors, though economists say the proposals are short on specifics.

他承诺将削减税收,并着手进行激进的财政调整,以降低巴西的长期借贷成本。这一纲领赢得了商界和投资者的青睐,但经济学家指出,这些提议缺乏具体细节。

"Flavio sees a broader global realignment at stake and wants to be part of it," said Paulo Kramer, a political scientist and former campaign adviser to Jair Bolsonaro.

“弗拉维奥认为全球格局正在发生更广泛的重组,他希望参与其中,”政治学家、雅伊尔·博索纳罗的前竞选顾问保罗·克拉默表示。

With the help of his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who was removed from his position as a member of the Brazilian Congress after he moved to the US, Flavio Bolsonaro managed at the end of May to get a meeting with US President Donald Trump, who described him as "a smart young man who loves his country, Brazil, very much!" During his first term in the White House, Trump established a close political and personal friendship with Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro's attempt to rekindle that alliance, however, has left many Brazilians cold.

在他的兄弟爱德华多·博索纳罗的帮助下——爱德华多在移居美国后被免去了巴西国会议员的职务——弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在5月底成功获得了与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会面的机会。特朗普称他为“一位热爱自己国家巴西的聪明年轻人!”在特朗普担任总统的第一个任期内,他与雅伊尔·博索纳罗建立了密切的政治和个人友谊。然而,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗试图重燃这一联盟的举动,却让许多巴西人感到冷淡。

With the help of his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who was removed from his position as a member of the Brazilian Congress after he moved to the US, Flavio Bolsonaro managed at the end of May to get a meeting with US President Donald Trump, who described him as "a smart young man who loves his country, Brazil, very much!" During his first term in the White House, Trump established a close political and personal friendship with Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro's attempt to rekindle that alliance, however, has left many Brazilians cold. His meeting with Trump was preceded by Washington's announcement of steep tariffs on Brazilian imports, giving Lula an opportunity to brand Flavio and Eduardo Bolsonaro as "traitors." Polls showed Brazilians blamed the Bolsonaros more than Lula for the tariffs, which were imposed in July.

在他与特朗普会面之前,华盛顿宣布对巴西进口商品征收高额关税,这让卢拉有机会将弗拉维奥和爱德华多·博索纳罗贴上“叛徒”的标签。民意调查显示,对于7月份实施的这些关税,巴西人认为博索纳罗家族比卢拉负有更大的责任。

"I don't think President Trump has helped Flavio at all," said Thomas Shannon, who served as a U.S. ambassador to Brazil during the Obama administration. "I think that was more harmful to Flavio." DARK HORSE Having overcome the initial skepticism over his candidacy, Senator Bolsonaro's campaign faced its biggest blow in May, after an investigation revealed he had asked a disgraced banker, who was accused of leading a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme, for money to fund a Hollywood biopic of Jair Bolsonaro.

“我不认为特朗普总统对弗拉维奥有任何帮助,”曾在奥巴马政府时期担任美国驻巴西大使的托马斯·香农说,“我认为这对弗拉维奥来说反而更有害。”

"I don't think President Trump has helped Flavio at all," said Thomas Shannon, who served as a U.S. ambassador to Brazil during the Obama administration. "I think that was more harmful to Flavio." DARK HORSE Having overcome the initial skepticism over his candidacy, Senator Bolsonaro's campaign faced its biggest blow in May, after an investigation revealed he had asked a disgraced banker, who was accused of leading a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme, for money to fund a Hollywood biopic of Jair Bolsonaro.

黑马:在克服了对其候选人资格的最初怀疑后,博索纳罗参议员的竞选活动在5月份遭遇了最大打击。此前的一项调查显示,他曾向一名声名狼藉的银行家索要资金,用于资助一部关于雅伊尔·博索纳罗的好莱坞传记片,而该银行家被指控领导了一项数十亿美元的欺诈计划。

Production contracts outlined $12 million in transfers from a fund connected to the banker, Daniel Vorcaro, to a U.S. fund managed by an attorney representing Eduardo Bolsonaro.

制作合同显示,有1200万美元从与该银行家丹尼尔·沃尔卡罗有关联的基金,转移到了由代表爱德华多·博索纳罗的一名律师所管理的美国基金中。

After first denying involvement, Flavio Bolsonaro admitted that the banker had funded the movie, but maintained there was no wrongdoing, merely "a private sponsorship, with no strings attached."

在最初否认涉案后,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗承认该银行家资助了这部电影,但坚称没有不当行为,仅仅是“一项私人赞助,没有任何附加条件。”

The revelation, however, triggered swift backlash. The senator saw his support drop in polls and some of his allies turned openly critical. Romeu Zema, a businessman who is also running for the presidency, called it "a slap in the face." Newly unsealed court records revealed that the Federal Police in July had opened an investigation into Flavio Bolsonaro for corruption, money laundering, and illicit capital flight linked to the movie project.

然而,这一披露引发了迅速而强烈的反弹。这位参议员的民调支持率下跌,一些盟友公开批评。同样竞选总统的商人罗梅乌·泽马称这是“当面的一记耳光”。新解封的法庭记录显示,联邦警察于7月已就与该电影项目有关的腐败、洗钱和非法资本外逃罪名,对弗拉维奥·博索纳罗展开调查。

The revelation, however, triggered swift backlash. The senator saw his support drop in polls and some of his allies turned openly critical. Romeu Zema, a businessman who is also running for the presidency, called it "a slap in the face." Newly unsealed court records revealed that the Federal Police in July had opened an investigation into Flavio Bolsonaro for corruption, money laundering, and illicit capital flight linked to the movie project.

他将该调查斥为“政治迫害”,此后在首轮投票前不到两周的时间里,他的民调支持率已有所回升。如果没有候选人获得绝对多数,将于10月25日举行第二轮投票。如果博索纳罗获胜,他将在其父支持者数千人冲击国会、最高法院和总统府、砸毁窗户、家具和艺术品、发动自1980年代巴西恢复民主以来最严重的国家机构袭击事件约四年后宣誓就职。

He dismissed the probe as a "political hit job" and has since recovered in the polls with less than two weeks to go before the first round of voting. A second round will be held on October 25 if no candidate wins a simple majority. If Bolsonaro wins, he would be sworn in some four years after thousands of supporters of his father rampaged through Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential offices, smashing windows, furniture and artwork in the worst attack on state institutions since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s.

博索纳罗重返巴西利亚普拉纳尔托宫(总统办公地)的前景,正引发新的机构冲突可能性。

The prospect of a Bolsonaro returning to the Planalto Palace in Brasilia where presidents carry out their duties is raising the possibility of fresh institutional clashes.

如果当选,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗很可能会迅速采取行动,扭转对其家族的两大法律打击:其父在巴西利亚的居家监禁,以及其兄爱德华多·博索纳罗因胁迫罪被判刑,该案涉及一场美国游说活动,检方称该活动旨在施压巴西最高法院大法官勿判决前总统有罪。

If elected, Flavio Bolsonaro would likely move quickly to undo two legal blows to his family: his father's house arrest in Brasilia and Eduardo Bolsonaro's conviction for coercion related to a U.S. lobbying campaign that prosecutors said sought to pressure Brazilian Supreme Court justices not to convict the former president.

解救父亲是弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的主要目标,这位总统候选人本月早些时候在独立日集会上曾暗示这一点。"我祈求上帝给我机会,明年能与总统雅伊尔·梅西亚斯·博尔索纳罗并肩走上普拉纳尔托宫的台阶,由他将总统绶带戴在我的胸前,"他说道。

Freeing his father is Flavio Bolsonaro's main goal, something the presidential candidate alluded to during an Independence Day rally earlier this month. "I ask God for the opportunity to walk up the ramp of Planalto Palace next year alongside President Jair Messias Bolsonaro, so that he may place the presidential sash across my chest," he said.