对于阿富汗而言，斗争始终是唯一的常态。即便在当下，随着其与巴基斯坦边境的战斗与杀戮再度升级，另一场危机正在国内悄然展开：数百万阿富汗人正返回家园，而那里或许已所剩无几。
For Afghanistan, struggle has been the only constant. Even now, as fighting and killings flare along its border with Pakistan, another crisis is unfolding inside the country: millions of Afghans are returning to a home that may have little left for them.
塔利班于2021年8月攻占喀布尔，在与美军及华盛顿支持的政府进行了二十年战争后重掌大权。四年后，阿富汗人正大批返回。阿富汗人正返回早已因粮食安全受创的地区他们因战争离开伊朗，因冲突与驱逐离开巴基斯坦。他们怀揣对安全的渴望踏上归途。然而家园给予他们的，是寥寥无几的食物、工作、住所——对许多儿童而言，甚至连教室都没有。
Taliban seized Kabul in August 2021, returning to power after two decades of war against US forces and a Washington-backed government. Four years later, Afghans are returning in huge numbers. Afghans are returning to districts already hit by food securityThey left Iran amid war. They left Pakistan amid conflict and deportations. They came home hoping for safety. But home offered little food, little work, little shelter - and for many children, no classroom.
《印度今日》基于多个联合国机构报告及人道主义机构数据的开源情报分析显示，近9成返乡家庭月收入不足5000阿富汗尼，而77%的家庭曾面临粮食或资金短缺。接收他们的地区早已饥饿蔓延。对阿富汗女童而言，归来的代价更为惨重：超过三分之二因种种障碍无法上学。面临返乡“热潮”冲击的地区我们识别出联合国35个优先地区中的28个，预计2026年4月至12月间，来自伊朗和巴基斯坦的预计返乡人数将使这些地区现有人口增加至少10%。
India Today’s OSINT analysis, based on reports from multiple United Nations organs and humanitarian agency data, suggests that nearly 9 in 10 returnee households earn less than 5,000 AFN a month, while 77% have faced periods without enough food or money. In districts receiving them, hunger is already widespread. For Afghan girls, the return can be even harsher: over 2 in 3 cannot attend school due to barriers. Districts facing the “heat” of returnWe identified 28 of the UN’s 35 priority districts where projected returns from Iran and Pakistan between April and December 2026 could add at least 10% to the existing population.-->-->*Where Afghan returnees intend to goIntended destination provinces of assisted returnees from Pakistan 10K 300KNo data Afghanistan province map showing intended destinations of assisted Afghan returnees from Pakistan.
-->-->*阿富汗返乡者意向去向来自巴基斯坦的受助返乡者意向目的省份 1万 30万无数据 阿富汗省份地图，显示来自巴基斯坦的受助阿富汗返乡者的意向目的地。悬停或聚焦某省份可显示其数值。喀布尔 103,702 拟返乡人员坎大哈 156,410 拟返乡人员楠格哈尔 253,944 拟返乡人员昆都士 72,901 拟返乡人员赫尔曼德 43,312 拟返乡人员巴格拉尼 33,588 拟返乡人员库纳尔 56,649 拟返乡人员帕克蒂亚 20,928 拟返乡人员巴尔赫 19,259 拟返乡人员扎布尔 18,406 拟返乡人员加兹尼 15,703 拟返乡人员洛加尔 15,275 拟返乡人员帕克蒂卡 13,405 拟返乡人员拉格曼 34,718 拟返乡人员卡比萨 无数据潘杰希尔 无数据霍斯特 无数据帕尔旺 无数据努里斯坦 无数据乔兹詹 无数据塔哈尔 无数据萨曼甘 无数据萨尔普勒 无数据达伊昆迪 无数据巴米扬 无数据法里亚布 无数据古尔 无数据尼姆鲁兹 无数据赫拉特 无数据巴德吉斯 无数据乌鲁兹甘 无数据法拉 无数据巴达赫尚 无数据迈丹瓦尔达克 无数据数据显示拟前往目的地，并不代表确定的最终居住地。
Hover or focus a province to display its figure. Kapisa No data Panjshir No data Laghman 34,718 intended returnees Khost No data Kabul 103,702 intended returnees Kunar 56,649 intended returnees Paktya 20,928 intended returnees Parwan No data Nuristan No data Jowzjan No data Takhar No data Samangan No data Sar-e-Pul No data Daykundi No data Balkh 19,259 intended returnees Baghlan 33,588 intended returnees Bamyan No data Paktika 13,405 intended returnees Faryab No data Ghazni 15,703 intended returnees Ghor No data Nimroz No data Herat No data Kandahar 156,410 intended returnees Kunduz 72,901 intended returnees Helmand 43,312 intended returnees Badghis No data Zabul 18,406 intended returnees Uruzgan No data Farah No data Badakhshan No data Nangarhar 253,944 intended returnees Logar 15,275 intended returnees Maidan Wardak No data Figures show intended destinations and do not indicate confirmed final residence.
来源：IOM CB-PAHA，协助返乡人员——目的地省份但这些地区本已承受压力。将其与REACH倡议和世界粮食计划署（WFP）2026年6月的粮食安全评估进行交叉核对，发现有24个地区面临严重或极端饥饿及应对后果——其中7个处于极端级别，17个处于严重级别。
Source: IOM CB-PAHA, Assisted Returnees – Destination ProvincesBut these districts were already under pressure. Cross-checking them with the REACH Initiative and World Food Programme (WFP) June 2026 food-security assessment found 24 facing Severe or Extreme hunger and coping outcomes - seven at the Extreme level and 17 at Severe.
这28个地区共居住约447万人，预计可能接纳近75.6万名返乡人员，这一涌入量约占其现有人口的17%。
Together, the 28 districts are home to about 4.47 million people and could receive nearly 756,000 returnees, an influx equivalent to roughly 17% of their existing population.-->-->*Where Afghan returnees intend to goIntended destination provinces of assisted returnees from Iran 25K 95K25K or fewer no data Afghanistan province map showing intended destinations of assisted Afghan returnees from Iran.
-->-->*阿富汗返乡人员拟前往地来自伊朗的协助返乡人员拟前往目的地省份25K 95K 25K或以下 无数据阿富汗省份地图显示来自伊朗的协助返乡人员拟前往目的地。悬停或聚焦某省份可显示其数值。
Hover or focus a province to display its figure.
卡皮萨 无数据 潘杰希尔 无数据 拉格曼 无数据 霍斯特 无数据 喀布尔 66,178名拟返回者 库纳尔 无数据 帕克蒂亚 无数据 帕尔万 28,913名拟返回者 努里斯坦 无数据 朱兹詹 无数据 塔哈尔 66,165名拟返回者 萨曼甘 无数据 萨尔普勒 31,423名拟返回者 代孔迪 无数据 巴尔赫 53,976名拟返回者 巴格兰 50,933名拟返回者 巴米扬 无数据 帕克蒂卡 无数据 法里亚布 54,627名拟返回者 加兹尼 无数据 古尔 26,877名拟返回者 尼姆鲁兹 无数据 赫拉特 89,269名拟返回者 坎大哈 无数据 昆都士 64,597名拟返回者 赫尔曼德 无数据 巴德吉斯 28,145名拟返回者 扎布尔 无数据 乌鲁兹甘 无数据 法拉 35,794名拟返回者 巴达赫尚 31,141名拟返回者 楠格哈尔 25,760名拟返回者 洛加尔 无数据 迈丹瓦尔达克 无数据 数据反映的是拟返回目的地，并不代表已确认的最终居住地。
Kapisa No data Panjshir No data Laghman No data Khost No data Kabul 66,178 intended returnees Kunar No data Paktya No data Parwan 28,913 intended returnees Nuristan No data Jowzjan No data Takhar 66,165 intended returnees Samangan No data Sar-e-Pul 31,423 intended returnees Daykundi No data Balkh 53,976 intended returnees Baghlan 50,933 intended returnees Bamyan No data Paktika No data Faryab 54,627 intended returnees Ghazni No data Ghor 26,877 intended returnees Nimroz No data Herat 89,269 intended returnees Kandahar No data Kunduz 64,597 intended returnees Helmand No data Badghis 28,145 intended returnees Zabul No data Uruzgan No data Farah 35,794 intended returnees Badakhshan 31,141 intended returnees Nangarhar 25,760 intended returnees Logar No data Maidan Wardak No data Figures show intended destinations and do not indicate confirmed final residence.
来源：国际移民组织CB-PAHA，受援返回者——目的地省份结果是一个艰难的重叠：预计将吸纳部分最大规模返回人流的地方，本已在竭力满足当地民众的需求。联合国将此次返回规模描述为“深刻的人口与发展挑战”，并警告称，“社区资源和吸纳能力将承受巨大压力”，因为本已面临粮食不安全的社区可能还需在数月内吸纳大量涌入人口。
Source: IOM CB-PAHA, Assisted Returnees – Destination ProvincesThe result is a difficult overlap: the places expected to absorb some of the largest return flows are already struggling to meet the needs of the people living there.
返回背后的面孔1月1日至8月29日期间，近120万阿富汗人越境返回，但对许多人来说，“返回”是个过于宽泛的说法。根据联合国难民署和国际移民组织的数据，巴基斯坦遣返了其中694,600人，伊朗遣返了484,800人，而这一推动很少是自愿的。在有记录的从伊朗返回者中，79%是被驱逐出境，而从巴基斯坦返回的受访者中，96%提到害怕被捕。
The UN has described the scale of returns as a “profound demographic and development challenge”, warning of “massive stress on community resources and absorption capacity” as the communities already facing food insecurity could also be required to absorb a sizeable population influx within months. The faces behind the returnNearly 1.2 million Afghans crossed back between January 1 and August 29, but for many, "return" is a generous word.
世界和平组织指出，阿富汗难民在返回过程中遭遇了“残酷的袭击、非法逮捕以及强制驱逐”的行为。其中一些人抵达的国家他们几乎一无所知，因为他们是在伊朗或巴基斯坦长大的。阿富汗难民主要通过六个主要通道返回家园。根据国际移民组织（IOM）和联合国难民署（UNHCR）的数据，自2023年9月以来，伊朗的伊斯兰卡拉（Islam Qala）和扎兰杰-米拉克（Zaranj-Milak）两个边境口岸共接收了约400万名返回者，这一数字超过了巴基斯坦的四个边境口岸（托尔卡姆Torkham、斯宾博尔达克Spin Boldak、巴赫拉姆查Bahramcha和古拉姆汗Ghulam Khan）接收的250万名返回者。
Pakistan sent back 694,600 of them and Iran 484,800, according to UNHCR and IOM data, and the push is rarely voluntary. Of documented returns from Iran, 79% were deportations, while 96% of surveyed returnees from Pakistan cited fear of arrest. The Organization for World Peace points to "brutal raids, unlawful arrests, and forcible deportations."
然而，为这些难民提供的援助系统已经不堪重负。联合国难民署表示，由于资金削减，其援助返回者的能力已大幅下降。
Some are landing in a country they barely know, having grown up in Iran or Pakistan.
谁受到的影响最大？许多难民带着寥寥几袋行李跨越边境，却没有任何明确的生存计划。首先耗尽的是他们的钱，随后是食物。根据联合国难民署2025年发布的《家庭多部门需求评估报告》，89%的返回者家庭每月的收入不足5000阿富汗尼（AFN），近94%的家庭面临食物短缺的问题；一些人甚至不得不减少餐食以维持生存。
Afghans are returning through six main gatewaysSix gateways carry the flow. Since September 2023, Iran's two crossings, Islam Qala and Zaranj-Milak, have handled about 4 million returns, more than the roughly 2.5 million through Pakistan's four: Torkham, Spin Boldak, Bahramcha and Ghulam Khan, per IOM-UNHCR.
对比分析：在八个评估指标中，巴基斯坦返回者的处境普遍比伊朗返回者更糟糕。具体数据如下：
高度优先需求：巴基斯坦返回者的比例低于伊朗返回者。
Waiting for them is a relief system running on fumes. UNHCR says its "capacity to assist returnees has been significantly reduced due to funding cuts."
经常性饥饿：巴基斯坦返回者的比例高于伊朗返回者。
出售资产：巴基斯坦返回者的比例高于伊朗返回者。
Who suffers the mostA family crosses the border with a few bags and no plan.
借钱：巴基斯坦返回者的比例高于伊朗返回者。
The money runs out first, then the food.
童工现象：巴基斯坦返回者的比例高于伊朗返回者。（注：数据中的“0”、“25”、“50”、“75”、“100”代表不同的比例或等级。）困境 保护担忧 冬季脆弱性 被标记为高优先级援助 伊朗：2.5% 频繁饥饿 伊朗：34.3% 变卖资产或牲畜 伊朗：40.0% 借钱应对 伊朗：78.9% 儿童被迫辍学务工 伊朗：49.5% 报告心理困扰 伊朗：35.1% 被标记保护担忧 伊朗：14.0% 极易受冬季影响 伊朗：48.1% 被标记为高优先级援助 巴基斯坦：7.9% 频繁饥饿 巴基斯坦：64.5% 变卖资产或牲畜 巴基斯坦：67.2% 借钱应对 巴基斯坦：91.5% 儿童被迫辍学务工 巴基斯坦：77.3% 报告心理困扰 巴基斯坦：55.3% 被标记保护担忧 巴基斯坦：32.3% 极易受冬季影响 巴基斯坦：77.3% 来源：联合国难民署阿富汗HMNA家庭调查，2025年下半年接下来是更悄然的损失：学业。
In the 2025 Household Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 89% of returnee households lived on less than 5,000 Afghanis (AFN) a month, and nearly 94% faced food shortages; some have cut meals to survive.-->-->*Two returns, two realities Iran returnees Pakistan returnees Pakistan returnee households score higher than Iran returnee households on all eight vulnerability indicators. 0 25 50 75 100 High priority Frequent hunger Sold assets Borrowed money Child labor Psych. distress Protection concerns Winter vulnerability Flagged high priority for aid Iran: 2.5% Frequent hunger Iran: 34.3% Sold assets or livestock Iran: 40.0% Borrowed money to cope Iran: 78.9% Child pulled from school to work Iran: 49.5% Psychological distress reported Iran: 35.1% Protection concerns flagged Iran: 14.0% Highly vulnerable to winter Iran: 48.1% Flagged high priority for aid Pakistan: 7.9% Frequent hunger Pakistan: 64.5% Sold assets or livestock Pakistan: 67.2% Borrowed money to cope Pakistan: 91.5% Child pulled from school to work Pakistan: 77.3% Psychological distress reported Pakistan: 55.3% Protection concerns flagged Pakistan: 32.3% Highly vulnerable to winter Pakistan: 77.3% Source: UNHCR Afghanistan HMNA household survey, H2 2025Then comes the quieter loss: school.
在接受调查的返国者家庭中，87%的家庭没有一个孩子上学。有些孩子在打工。有些孩子缺少学费或身份证明。对于女孩而言，近四分之一的家庭提到塔利班对女性教育的禁令。以下基于联合国难民署家庭数据的可视化显示，每100名儿童中有63名无法上学，其中35名女孩和28名男孩无法就学。仅有37名儿童能够上学：22名男孩和15名女孩。
In 87% of the returnee households surveyed, not a single child attends. Some are working. Some lack fees or identity papers. For girls, almost one in four households cite the Taliban ban on female education. The following visualisation, based on UNHCR household data, shows that 63 out of every 100 children cannot get to school, with 35 girls and 28 boys unable to attend. Schools are accessible to only 37 of 100 children: 22 boys and 15 girls.
每3名阿富汗女孩中就有2名被剥夺受教育的机会来自巴基斯坦的家庭负担最重。许多人在突袭和房东压力下离开，几乎没有时间储蓄或变卖财产。如今91.5%的家庭负债，而在接受调查的家庭中，77.3%的家庭有孩子辍学去打工。原因是速度和距离。国际移民组织（IOM）区域协调员穆罕默德·埃尔马斯里表示，许多从巴基斯坦返回的人“已经多年、在某些情况下甚至数十年没有踏足阿富汗”。
Every 2 of 3 Afghan girls are being denied access to educationFamilies from Pakistan carry the heaviest load. Many left under raids and landlord pressure, with little time to save or sell. Now 91.5% are in debt, and in 77.3% of the households asked, children have quit school to work. The reason is speed and distance. The International Organization for Migration's (IOM) regional coordinator, Mohamed Elmasry, said many of those returning from Pakistan "have not set foot in Afghanistan for years and in some cases, decades."
联合国难民署称，他们在挨家挨户的突袭、警察骚扰和房东压力之后离开，几乎没有时间变卖财产、储蓄或做计划。趋势伊朗的时钟最先开始转动。
UNHCR says they leave after door-to-door raids, police harassment and pressure from landlords, with little time to sell, save or plan. The trendsIran's clock started first.
德黑兰要求无证阿富汗人必须在2025年7月6日前离开该国；随后，以色列对伊朗的战争爆发了。联合国难民署（UNHCR）指出：“自6月13日起，从伊朗驱逐出境的人数显著增加。”从6月到7月，每月从伊朗返回阿富汗的人数从约28.3万人激增至近60万人。伊朗当局指控这些阿富汗人为以色列的间谍机构摩萨德（Mossad）工作，但这些指控从未得到证实。
Tehran told undocumented Afghans to leave by July 6, 2025, and then Israel's war on Iran began. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recorded that "Since 13 June, deportations from Iran increased." Monthly returns from Iran leapt from about 283,000 in June to nearly 600,000 in JulyIranian authorities alleged that Afghans were working for Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, and the claims were never proven.
联合国人权事务高级专员办事处（OHCHR）称，至少有6人因“为以色列从事间谍活动”而被处决；另有数百人（其中包括阿富汗人）因被指控与以色列合作或从事间谍活动而被拘留。
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said at least six people had reportedly been executed on charges of "espionage for Israel," and that hundreds more, Afghans among them, had been detained on accusations of collaboration or espionage.
巴基斯坦方面也加大了对无证阿富汗人的驱逐力度：7月份从巴基斯坦返回阿富汗的人数达到了约25万人。人权观察组织（Human Rights Watch）指出，巴基斯坦当局在冲突发生后大幅加剧了虐待行为、任意拘留以及强制遣返的措施。联合国阿富汗援助特派团（UNAMA）统计显示，2026年至今已有超过1,100名平民在跨境武装冲突中丧生或受伤。到了8月份，从伊朗和巴基斯坦返回阿富汗的人数有所减少（分别约为6万人和4.2万人），但阿富汗政府对这些返回者的接待力度仍然十分有限。
Monthly returns from Iran leapt from about 283,000 in June to nearly 600,000 in July. Pakistan's clock ran later, peaking near 250,000 in November, as its drive against undocumented Afghans collided with a war on its western border. Human Rights Watch says Pakistani authorities "sharply escalated abusive raids, arbitrary detentions, and forced returns" after the clashes. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has documented "over 1,100 civilian deaths and injuries" from cross-border armed violence in 2026 so far.
阿富汗的经济能否承受这种压力？由于大量难民的涌入，该国的人均收入大幅下降。塔利班虽然现已控制了整个阿富汗，但治理国家与保障民众的基本生活需求是两码事。2025年阿富汗的国内生产总值（GDP）增长了4.8%，但人均收入却下降了5.6%；目前有1,380万人面临严重饥饿问题，而联合国为阿富汗提供的17亿美元援助资金中仅有约29.9%得到了实际使用。
By August, flows had cooled to about 60,000 from Iran and 42,000 from Pakistan, but the welcome is thin. Can the economy handle it? Afghan per capita income has fallen following massive inflow of returneesOnce a byword for fear, the Taliban now govern all of Afghanistan. But ruling a country is not the same as feeding it. GDP grew 4.8% in 2025, yet income per person fell 5.6%, 13.8 million face acute hunger, and just 29.9% of the UN's $1.7 billion appeal is funded.
印度加大了对阿富汗难民的支持力度：作为阿富汗的邻国，印度在伊朗和巴基斯坦边境地区设立了15家诊所和10所学校；7月份，印度还向喀布尔的难民部门提供了家庭帐篷，以帮助满足阿富汗难民的庇护和康复需求。
India steps up to support Afghan returneesIndia, a close neighbour, is stepping in: 15 clinics and 10 schools across the Iran and Pakistan fronts and, in July, family tents handed to Kabul's refugee ministry "to support the shelter and rehabilitation needs of Afghan returnees," per MEA.
这有所帮助，但与那道鸿沟相比，只是杯水车薪。塔利班掌握着权力。要运用它，他们需要这个世界。——完
It helps, but it is small against the gap. The Taliban hold the power. To use it, they need the world.- Ends