苏丹军方领导人阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·布尔汉誓言要继续对快速支援部队的军事行动,尽管美国拒绝向其发放出席联合国大会的签证,且要求停火的压力日益增大。法国国际广播电台采访了一位苏丹研究人员,探讨美方此举的原因以及这场对峙可能发展到何种程度。
Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has vowed to push on with his fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, despite a US visa snub to attend the UN General Assembly and mounting pressure for a ceasefire. RFI spoke to a Sudanese researcher about why such a step was taken and how far the stand-off could go.
据报道,美国上周作出的这一决定旨在向布尔汉将军施压,迫使其接受与准军事组织快速支援部队达成为期三个月的停火协议。
The US decision, taken last week, was reportedly meant to pressure General Burhan into accepting a three-month truce with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Khartoum has rejected the proposal, arguing that a ceasefire would only give the RSF time to regroup.
喀土穆拒绝了这一提议,认为停火只会给快速支援部队喘息和重整的时间。
On Sunday, witnesses told French news agency AFP that a drone strike hit a major fuel depot near the army-held city of Wad Madani, while two explosions rocked Nyala, the RSF's main stronghold in the west.
周日,目击者向法新社表示,一次无人机袭击击中了军方控制的瓦德迈达尼市附近的一个大型燃料库,同时两次爆炸震动了尼亚拉——快速支援部队在西部的主要据点。
On Sunday, witnesses told French news agency AFP that a drone strike hit a major fuel depot near the army-held city of Wad Madani, while two explosions rocked Nyala, the RSF's main stronghold in the west. The Wad Madani attack was the first reported strike on the Al-Jazira state capital since the army recaptured it from the RSF last year.
瓦德迈达尼袭击是自去年军方从快速支援部队手中夺回杰济拉州首府以来,该市首次遭到报道的打击。
Sudan has been at war since April 2023, when a power struggle between Burhan and his former deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as "Hemedti", erupted into open conflict. The fighting has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions in what the UN calls the world's largest humanitarian crisis.
苏丹自2023年4月以来一直处于战争状态,当时布尔汉与其前副手、快速支援部队指挥官穆罕默德·哈姆丹·达格洛(人称“赫梅蒂”)之间的权力斗争演变为公开冲突。战斗已导致数万人死亡,数百万人流离失所,联合国称之为世界上最大的人道主义危机。
Sudan has been at war since April 2023, when a power struggle between Burhan and his former deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as "Hemedti", erupted into open conflict. The fighting has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions in what the UN calls the world's largest humanitarian crisis. RFI talked to Sudanese researcher Suliman Baldo, director of the US-based Sudan Transparency and Policy Observatory, about the US position, why Burhan has rejected the proposed truce and whether the US can still play a role in negotiations.
法国国际广播电台采访了苏丹研究员苏莱曼·巴尔多,他是总部位于美国的苏丹透明与政策观察站主任,就美国的立场、布尔汉拒绝拟议停火的原因以及美国是否仍能在谈判中发挥作用进行了讨论。
RFI: Suliman Baldo, why did the Americans refuse General al-Burhan a visa for the UN General Assembly?
法国国际广播电台:苏莱曼·巴尔多,美国为什么拒绝向布尔汉将军发放出席联合国大会的签证?
The Americans are leading an initiative to propose negotiations to end the fighting in Sudan. They proposed a three-month humanitarian cessation of hostilities to the two sides in Sudan – the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
美国方面正在牵头提出一项旨在结束苏丹战斗的谈判倡议。他们向苏丹双方——苏丹军方和快速支援部队——提出了为期三个月的人道主义停火建议。
But Burhan rejected the roadmap proposed by the United States and its regional allies for two reasons. The Sudanese army still believes it can achieve a military victory over the RSF, and General Burhan did not accept the political conditions.
但布尔汉拒绝了美国及其地区盟友提出的路线图,原因有二。苏丹军队仍然相信它能够在对快速支援部队的战争中取得军事胜利,而布尔汉将军没有接受政治条件。
RFI: Is it true that the Americans told General al-Burhan: 'If you agree to sign a 90-day truce, you will get a visa for New York'?
RFI:美国人是否真的对布尔汉将军说过:“如果你同意签署为期90天的停火协议,你就会获得前往纽约的签证”?
I think things have reached a point where the United States has decided to confront Burhan. First, there were orchestrated leaks about the development of chemical weapons by the Sudanese army, with Burhan's involvement, according to reports published by and on the same day, about two weeks ago.
我认为事情已经发展到美国决定与布尔汉正面对抗的地步。首先,大约两周前,有组织地出现了关于苏丹军队研发化学武器、布尔汉参与其中的泄密消息,相关报道于同一天发布。
And that was meant to show that Burhan was involved in a war crime by allowing the army, under his command, to develop chemical weapons. So it was orchestrated just before the General Assembly to show that Burhan was, in a way, not qualified to be part of this gathering of international leaders.
其目的是表明布尔汉参与了一项战争罪行,因为他允许在其指挥下的军队研发化学武器。所以,这一切是在联合国大会召开前精心安排的,目的是表明布尔汉在某种程度上没有资格参加这场国际领导人聚会。
RFI: Was this an attempt to delegitimise General Burhan before the UN General Assembly? Absolutely.
RFI:这是否是试图在联合国大会召开前削弱布尔汉将军的合法性?绝对是。
UN's Sudan probe says foreign fighters fuelling conflict RFI: On the military front, General Burhan's armed forces have been advancing in North Kordofan province for the past two months, particularly around the city of El Obeid. Isn't that the real reason why Burhan does not want to sign a ceasefire?
联合国苏丹调查称外国武装分子加剧冲突 RFI:在军事方面,布尔汉将军的武装部队过去两个月一直在北科尔多凡省推进,尤其是在欧拜伊德市周边。这难道不是布尔汉不愿签署停火协议的真正原因吗?
I believe the Sudanese army is pursuing a plan to use North Kordofan as a base for attacks on the RSF stronghold in the Darfur region.
我认为苏丹军队正在推行一项计划,利用北科尔多凡作为攻击达尔富尔地区快速支援部队据点的基地。
But the RSF still has thousands of fighters. It has deployed newly trained soldiers equipped with full military gear, including technicals – Toyota vehicles equipped for warfare in the savannah and desert.
但快速支援部队仍然拥有数千名战斗人员。它已部署了新近训练、配备全套军事装备的士兵,包括武装皮卡——为在草原和沙漠中作战而改装的丰田车辆。
So the RSF will push back the Sudanese army's offensive and, I believe, the fighting will continue. It is clear and obvious to everyone that there will never be a military solution to the current war, especially now with the increasing use and deployment of drones by both sides.
因此,快速支援部队将击退苏丹军队的攻势,我认为战斗将继续下去。对所有人来说都清楚而明显的是,当前这场战争永远不会有军事解决方案,尤其是现在双方都越来越多地使用和部署无人机。
RFI: Last week, the Americans went further in their stand-off with General Burhan, declaring him illegitimate. Who will win this war of attrition – Donald Trump or Burhan?
RFI:美国在与布尔汉将军的对峙中更进一步,宣布其不合法。这场消耗战谁会赢——特朗普还是布尔汉?
There are a lot of contradictions because Saudi Arabia now needs a great deal of military and intelligence support from the United States in its war with the [Iran-backed] Houthis in Yemen.
有很多复杂因素,因为沙特阿拉伯现在在与(伊朗支持的)胡塞武装的战争中需要美国大量的军事和情报支持。
So the Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman, appealed to President Trump to intervene against the Houthis in Yemen, who have really paralysed the country's oil industry.
因此,沙特领导人本·萨勒曼呼吁特朗普介入也门打击胡塞武装,后者确实使该国石油工业陷入瘫痪。
And because of this dependence on the United States, Saudi Arabia cannot oppose American policy on Sudan very strongly. So there are a lot of factors that are now complicating the situation, and some of these factors go beyond this issue.
正因为如此依赖美国,沙特阿拉伯无法在苏丹问题上强烈反对美国政策。所以现在有很多因素使局势复杂化,其中一些因素超出了这个问题本身。
And because of this dependence on the United States, Saudi Arabia cannot oppose American policy on Sudan very strongly. So there are a lot of factors that are now complicating the situation, and some of these factors go beyond this issue.
苏丹快速支援部队准军事组织被控在法希尔犯下反人类罪。RFI:布尔汉将军阵营称美国已转向赫梅蒂将军一方,不再能充当调解人。你怎么看?
Sudan's RSF paramilitaries accused of crimes against humanity in El Fasher RFI: General al-Burhan's camp says the Americans have switched to General Hemedti's side and can no longer act as mediators. What do you think?
就他们自身而言,我认为美国人无法为这场非常复杂、多维度的战争找到解决方案,因为他们已经完全疏远了苏丹军队。RFI:但这是否意味着美国人应该退出谈判?我不这么认为,因为美国在苏丹也有战略利益。
On their own, I don't think the Americans will be able to find a solution to this very complex, multi-dimensional war, because they have completely alienated the Sudanese army. RFI: But does that mean the Americans should withdraw from the negotiations? I don't think so, because the Americans also have strategic interests in Sudan.
对他们来说,关键是让俄罗斯的影响力远离红海。俄罗斯是苏丹军队的武器供应方之一,并且仍在推进在红海苏丹港建立军事基地的计划。
For them, it is about keeping Russian influence away from the Red Sea. Russia is one of the arms suppliers to the Sudanese army and is still pursuing plans to establish a military base on the Red Sea at Port Sudan.
美国人不想听到这件事,沙特人也不想。这就是美国人继续介入苏丹的原因。
The Americans do not want to hear about that, nor do the Saudis. That's why the Americans remain engaged in Sudan.