经过多年的摸索,民主党似乎终于找到了一个有效的竞选口号:那就是“生活必需品的价格已经高得令人难以承受,必须有人采取行动来解决这个问题”。这个口号非常简单明了:生活必需品的价格不断上涨,人们确实需要有人来为这个问题负责。
After years of fumbling around for an effective campaign message, Democrats seem to have finally found one in affordability. The idea couldn’t be simpler: Life’s essential goods have become intolerably expensive, and somebody ought to do something about it.
佐赫兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)在纽约市以这一主题开展竞选活动并取得了胜利;新泽西州的米基·谢里尔(Mikie Sherrill)和弗吉尼亚州的阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格(Abigail Spanberger)等中间派候选人也同样取得了胜利。类似的理念现在也正在推动詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)、罗布·桑德(Rob Sand)和罗伊·库珀(Roy Cooper)等民主党高调候选人的中期选举活动。民主党将生活成本的高涨与共和党的政策(尤其是关税政策以及伊朗战争)联系在一起,因此他们自然会将这一议题作为竞选口号来使用。
Zohran Mamdani campaigned on this theme in New York City and won, as did more centrist candidates like Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Similar platforms are now driving midterm campaigns for high-profile Democrats such as James Talarico, Rob Sand and Roy Cooper. Affordability links the high costs of living to Republican policies, particularly tariffs and the Iran war; it’s no wonder Democratic strategists are embracing it as a campaign message. Winning elections is no small thing. Yet to provide a lasting advantage for the Democrats, the affordability issue can and should be more than about high prices. The great risk for the Democratic Party right now is to fail to reckon with the much larger and more powerful issue that affordability candidates are tapping into — and to end up disappointing voters once again.
赢得选举固然重要,但要想为民主党带来持久的优势,仅仅关注生活成本问题是不够的。目前民主党面临的最大风险在于:如果他们不能正视那些更严重、更具有影响力的问题(而这些问题正是那些主张关注生活成本问题的候选人所关注的),最终可能会再次让选民感到失望。
The most important political division in our times is not between Democrats and Republicans, or socialists and capitalists; it’s between those who think today’s economic system is fair and working well for most people, and those who do not. While a minority of Americans defend the current system, citing aggregate indicators like growth rates, a majority see things differently.
当今最重要的政治分歧并不在于民主党与共和党之间,也不在于社会主义者与资本家之间,而在于那些认为当前经济体系对大多数人来说是公平且运行良好的人与那些持相反观点的人之间。虽然有一小部分美国人以经济增长率等总体指标为依据为现行经济体系辩护,但大多数美国人的看法却截然不同。
A recent CBS News poll found that some 60 percent of Americans think the economy is “unfair” and that most people under 45 say they have fewer economic opportunities than their parents did. In a recent Economist/YouGov 66 percent of Republicans said that the gap between rich and poor is a “big problem.” Though the stock market is up and the United States is not suffering a recession or mass unemployment, Gallup’s monthly Economic Confidence Index has been persistently negative.
最近的一项CBS News民意调查显示,约60%的美国人认为当前的经济体系“不公平”;45岁以下的人中,有超过60%的人表示自己的经济机会比他们的父母要少。在另一项由《经济学人》(The Economist)和YouGov联合进行的调查中,66%的共和党人认为贫富差距是一个“严重的问题”。尽管股市有所上涨,美国也没有陷入经济衰退或大规模失业的困境,但盖洛普(Gallup)的月度经济信心指数却一直处于负值状态。
A recent CBS News poll found that some 60 percent of Americans think the economy is “unfair” and that most people under 45 say they have fewer economic opportunities than their parents did. In a recent Economist/YouGov 66 percent of Republicans said that the gap between rich and poor is a “big problem.” Though the stock market is up and the United States is not suffering a recession or mass unemployment, Gallup’s monthly Economic Confidence Index has been persistently negative. To run a proper affordability campaign — one that taps into a discontent even deeper than that over high prices — Democrats should cater to this widespread sense of unfairness. The key message is rebalancing: a promise to level out a lopsided economy that favors huge concentrations of wealth.
要开展一场真正有效的“可负担性”竞选活动(这种活动所针对的不满情绪其实比单纯的高物价问题更为深刻),民主党人必须回应民众普遍感受到的这种不公平现象。核心信息就是“重新平衡经济结构”——即承诺纠正那种极度偏向富人的经济体制。
That message can risk sounding like generic political talk about standing up for the little guy. Credibility has to come from a platform of policies that shift economic power away from the big guys in ways that voters can readily understand.
然而,这样的口号很容易被误解为普通的、泛泛而谈的政治口号(即“为弱势群体发声”)。要想让这些口号具有说服力,就必须提出具体的政策方案,这些方案能够以选民容易理解的方式,将经济权力从大企业手中转移出来。
You see this in the platforms of candidates who have run on affordability. Mr. Mamdani’s government-run groceries stores are supposed to make milk cheaper, yes — but also to undercut the power of corporate food conglomerates. Ms. Sherrill’s utility tariff for data centers is designed to lower energy prices for consumers, yes — but also to force Big Tech to pay for its own infrastructure. Mr. Sand hopes to lower home prices, yes — but in part by barring private equity from buying up single-family homes as investments.
在那些以“可负担性”为竞选纲领的候选人身上,我们可以看到这种理念的体现:例如,Mamdani先生推出的政府经营的杂货店旨在降低牛奶价格,同时削弱大型食品企业的垄断势力;Sherrill女士制定的数据中心用电收费标准旨在降低消费者的能源成本,同时迫使大型科技公司自行承担基础设施建设费用;Sand先生希望降低房价,部分措施就是禁止私募股权机构将独栋住宅作为投资对象购买。
What we are seeing is the resurgence of an age-old American ideology of economic balance. While it lacks a formal name, it may well be the most popular ideology in the country.
我们正在见证一种古老的美国经济平衡理念的复兴。虽然这种理念没有正式的名称,但它很可能是美国目前最受欢迎的政治理念。
There are signs on the campaign trail that some Democratic candidates grasp the appeal of this broader affordability message, as when Mr. Talarico, running for Senate in Texas, says that “the biggest divide in this country is not left versus right” but rather “top versus bottom.” Democrats should not be afraid to hit this message harder: The problem is not just high prices but also the structure of the economy. If Democrats can embrace what affordability is really about, they might do even more than win elections; they might bring about the change that most Americans, including most Republicans, say they are looking for, and in so doing, realign our politics.
从竞选活动中可以看出,一些民主党候选人确实理解了这一理念的吸引力。例如,参加德克萨斯州参议院选举的Talarico先生就指出:“这个国家最大的分歧不在于左派与右派,而在于富人与穷人之间的差距。”民主党人应该更加积极地宣扬这一理念:问题不仅在于高物价,还在于经济体制本身的不合理性。如果民主党人能够真正理解“可负担性”的实质,他们不仅能够赢得选举,更有可能实现大多数美国人(包括大多数共和党人)所期望的变革,从而重塑美国的政治格局。
There are signs on the campaign trail that some Democratic candidates grasp the appeal of this broader affordability message, as when Mr. Talarico, running for Senate in Texas, says that “the biggest divide in this country is not left versus right” but rather “top versus bottom.” Democrats should not be afraid to hit this message harder: The problem is not just high prices but also the structure of the economy. If Democrats can embrace what affordability is really about, they might do even more than win elections; they might bring about the change that most Americans, including most Republicans, say they are looking for, and in so doing, realign our politics. Americans have repeatedly rebelled against imbalances of power. From the American Revolution to the election of 1800, from the Jacksonian war on the national bank in the 1830s to the farmers who participated in revolts against monopolistic railroads in the 1870s, from the progressive era to the New Deal, Americans have repeatedly sought to offset or balance concentrations of power.
美国人历来反对权力失衡的现象。从美国独立战争到1800年的总统选举,从19世纪30年代杰克逊政府对国家银行的改革,到19世纪70年代农民们反抗垄断铁路公司的运动,再到进步主义时代和新政时期,美国人始终在努力遏制或平衡权力的过度集中。
To call it “populism” undersells the point. The historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. perceptively observed that the United States oscillates every few decades between periods of “private interest” (pro-business individualism) and “public purpose” (civic-minded reform). The cycle goes back to the early 1800s, when an economy dominated by Eastern banking and commercial interests was upended by a series of small-producer presidents, beginning with Thomas Jefferson, who led the movement that would ultimately open the Midwest and West to millions of small farmers. The Jacksonian era, the Civil War, the Progressive Era and the New Deal were the public’s reckoning with the powers of the financial sector, slaveholders and corporate monopolies.
将这种社会现象简单地称为“民粹主义”其实是对其本质的轻视。历史学家阿瑟·施莱辛格曾敏锐地指出:美国每隔几十年就会在“私人利益”(即支持企业的个人主义)与“公共利益”(即以公民利益为重的改革)之间摇摆不定。这一循环可以追溯到19世纪初:当时美国经济由东部银行和商业势力主导,但随后一系列来自中小生产者的总统(以托马斯·杰斐逊为代表)推动了改革,最终使中西部和西部地区得以向数百万农民开放。杰克逊时代、内战、进步主义时代以及新政时期,都是美国民众对金融行业、奴隶主以及企业垄断势力进行抗争的体现。
To call it “populism” undersells the point. The historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. perceptively observed that the United States oscillates every few decades between periods of “private interest” (pro-business individualism) and “public purpose” (civic-minded reform). The cycle goes back to the early 1800s, when an economy dominated by Eastern banking and commercial interests was upended by a series of small-producer presidents, beginning with Thomas Jefferson, who led the movement that would ultimately open the Midwest and West to millions of small farmers. The Jacksonian era, the Civil War, the Progressive Era and the New Deal were the public’s reckoning with the powers of the financial sector, slaveholders and corporate monopolies.
如今,我们又处在一个类似的历史阶段——即“私人利益”占主导地位的时期。在过去40年里,我们任由大企业及最富有的美国人垄断财富,他们认为这些财富最终会惠及所有人;然而,这个“最终”时刻始终没有到来。
We’re in a similar period of private interest today. For the past 40 years we’ve let large businesses and the richest Americans concentrate wealth on the theory that at some point, later on, the winnings would reach everyone. Unfortunately, that “later” never came.
更糟糕的是,当今的经济失衡现象远比单纯的贫富差距要复杂得多:不同地区之间、不同代际之间、大小企业之间、雇主与雇员之间都存在着经济差距。如今,科技行业似乎也与其他所有行业形成了对立关系——人们常被告知,如果任由人工智能技术发展,它将惠及所有人;但持怀疑态度的人也有他们的历史依据(即过去的经验表明,技术变革往往并不能带来公平的分配)。
Making things worse, the economic imbalances in our time are more varied than the simple divide between rich and poor. We also have economic divides between geographic regions, between generations, between small and large companies, between employers and employees. And now, seemingly, we have a divide between the tech industry and everyone else: We’re often being told that if left alone, A.I. is a tide that will lift all boats — but the skeptics have history on their side.
在这种情况下,美国反垄断的传统(这一传统以律师兼最高法院大法官路易斯·布兰代斯为代表)重新浮现,这绝非巧合。这一趋势体现在针对 Live Nation、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊和苹果等公司的大规模诉讼中,也体现在最近针对 Meta 和 YouTube 的关于社交媒体危害的裁决中。无需具备经济学或技术方面的专业知识,就能明白:市场力量的集中不仅会对整体经济繁荣构成威胁,还会破坏社会凝聚力。
It is not a coincidence, in this context, that the American antimonopoly tradition, exemplified by the lawyer and Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, has re-emerged. You can see this in the sweeping lawsuits against Live Nation, Google, Meta, Amazon and Apple, and in the recent verdict against Meta and YouTube concerning social media harm. You needn’t be an economist or technocrat to understand that concentrated market power is a threat not just to widespread prosperity but also to social cohesion.
其实,你甚至不必是民主党人就能理解这一点。还记得 JD·万斯在成为副总统之前所表达的那些担忧吗?他的观点与当今那些主张改善经济公平性的候选人非常相似;共和党政治家如乔什·霍利(Josh Hawley)、布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克(Brian Fitzpatrick)和菲尔·斯科特(Phil Scott)也持有类似的观点。2016 年唐纳德·特朗普的当选,在一定程度上正是对这种经济失衡现象的反应,尤其是农村和工人阶级选民的反应。
You don’t even need to be a Democrat: Recall that JD Vance, before becoming the vice president, voiced many of the same concerns as today’s affordability candidates — as have Republican politicians such as Josh Hawley, Brian Fitzpatrick and Phil Scott. The election of Donald Trump in 2016, of course, was at least in part a reaction to the same sense of economic imbalance, especially among rural and working-class voters. To be sure there are those who insist that efforts to rebalance economic power will destroy the vitality that gives America and American business its dynamic character.
当然,也有些人坚称,任何试图重新平衡经济权力的努力都会破坏美国经济的活力与竞争力。但从政治角度来看,这种担忧其实并没有人们想象的那么严重。为了理解这一点,可以以美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)为例:该联盟是美国最受欢迎、也是最成功的体育联盟之一,它通过严格的薪资上限(美国职业棒球大联盟 MLB 并没有这一限制)以及积极的收入分配机制,不断在各个球队之间重新平衡权力。如果美国橄榄球联盟采用放任自由的市场机制(类似于当今的美国经济体制),那么纽约和洛杉矶肯定会占据主导地位;但实际上,堪萨斯城、底特律和巴尔的摩等球队也在激烈竞争。既然这些联盟的球迷代表了美国一半的人口,他们为什么不希望在经济领域也能看到类似的竞争机制呢?
Politically, this worry has less force than some imagine. To understand why, consider the National Football League. It is by far the nation’s most popular and most financially successful sports league, and it is constantly rebalancing power among its teams through tools such as a hard salary cap (which Major League Baseball lacks) and aggressive revenue sharing. In a laissez-faire N.F.L. that was run more like today’s American economy, New York and Los Angeles would dominate. Instead, Kansas City, Detroit and Baltimore compete too. If the league’s fans, representing perhaps half of the country, prefer regulated competition in their football, why wouldn’t they want it in their economy?
一些民主党人士担心,如果他们过于强调经济平衡的重要性,这种立场可能会让大多数选民感到过于激进。这种担忧在马姆达尼等人的言论中得到了体现——马姆达尼在竞选期间主张提高住房的可负担性,同时将自己描述为“民主社会主义者”。然而,与马姆达尼相反,还有像阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德这样的人:他自称是资本主义者,却通过倡导住房可负担性的政策赢得了密歇根州民主党参议院提名。塔拉里科在竞选中称阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德为“自豪的资本主义者”,同时也指出:“如今,美国最富有的1%的人口所拥有的财富超过了整个中产阶级的总和。”将当前的政治局势简单地视为社会主义与资本主义之间的旧有斗争的再现,其实忽视了真正的矛盾所在。
Some Democrats fret that a full-throated message of economic balance will sound too radical for most voters — a worry exemplified by figures like Mr. Mamdani, who campaigned on affordability while describing himself as a democratic socialist. But for every Mamdani, there’s an Abdul El-Sayed, a self-described capitalist who campaigned on an affordability platform to win the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. In this vein, Mr. Talarico’s campaign calls him a “proud capitalist” while he also laments that “the richest 1 percent of Americans now own more wealth than the entire middle class.” To see our current political moment as a replay of the old contest between socialism and capitalism misses what’s really going on. Rebalancing or redressing economic power can mean many things. In the midterms, the Democrats campaigning on affordability are proposing a variety of strategies. Some, like Mr. Sand, who’s running for governor in Iowa, favor what’s sometimes known as an “abundance” approach: cutting the red tape that slows housing construction, for example, to help lower housing prices. Others, like Mr. Talarico, emphasize more direct forms of help, such as federal down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers.
重新平衡或纠正经济权力分配的方式可以有很多种。在中期选举中,那些主张提高住房可负担性的民主党候选人提出了多种策略:例如,艾奥瓦州州长候选人桑德主张减少阻碍住房建设的官僚手续,以降低房价;而塔拉里科则更倾向于提供直接的帮助措施,比如为首次购房者提供联邦购房补贴。
Rebalancing or redressing economic power can mean many things. In the midterms, the Democrats campaigning on affordability are proposing a variety of strategies. Some, like Mr. Sand, who’s running for governor in Iowa, favor what’s sometimes known as an “abundance” approach: cutting the red tape that slows housing construction, for example, to help lower housing prices. Others, like Mr. Talarico, emphasize more direct forms of help, such as federal down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers.
不过,候选人之间的最主要区别并不在于具体方法,而在于他们的可信度与决心。一个值得警惕的例子是前亚利桑那州参议员凯尔斯滕·西内玛——她曾以“为被忽视的中产阶级和社会中的弱势群体发声”的形象参与竞选,但后来却成为了制药行业的坚定支持者,并成为推动药品价格改革的主要反对者。西内玛的例子提醒我们:那些反对提高住房可负担性政策的势力不可小觑。尽管他们在数量上属于少数派,但他们背后拥有强大的产业和个体利益相关者,这些利益相关者从现行的经济体系中获得了巨大的利益。
But the most salient difference between candidates will be less about method than about credibility and resolve. A cautionary tale is that of Kyrsten Sinema, the former Arizona senator who once campaigned as a “fighter” for “the forgotten middle class and the powerless in our society” only to end up as a great ally of the pharmaceutical industry and a key opponent of strong drug-price reform. As Ms. Sinema’s case reminds us, the forces opposing affordability politics should not be underestimated. While theirs is a minority position numerically, it draws from powerful industries and individuals who benefit enormously from the economic system remaining as it is.
我们不要天真地认为:在这样一个旨在重新平衡经济权力的政治平台上开展竞选活动,可能会吸引大量选民的支持;但这样做可能会让候选人失去企业的赞助和捐款——而竞选公职需要大量的资金。正是这种现实考量(而非任何意识形态上的顾虑),导致了一些候选人只是表面上支持“经济可负担性”的理念(比如西内玛女士的做法),或者提出一些含糊其辞的经济承诺(比如卡玛拉·哈里斯在总统竞选期间所做的承诺)。虽然表面上支持“经济可负担性”或许能在短期内帮助候选人维持捐款来源,但一旦违背了大多数选民的真正诉求(尤其是在承诺为他们服务之后),就注定会导致长期的不受欢迎。
Let us not be naïve about this: Campaigning on a platform to rebalance economic power may appeal to a broad swath of voters, but it can cost candidates corporate support and ultimately, donations, and it takes a lot of money to run for office. This calculus, more than any ideological qualms, is what can lead to a mere superficial embrace of affordability — as in Ms. Sinema’s case — or to wishy-washy economic commitments, such as the ones Kamala Harris put forward during her presidential campaign. While paying mere lip service to affordability might help protect donations in the short term, ignoring what a large majority of voters want — after promising to serve them — is a recipe for long-term unpopularity.
事实上,对民主党来说,今天确实是一个绝佳的机会:因为特朗普的第二个任期彻底放弃了解决经济失衡问题的努力,反而成了腐败和专制资本主义的典型例证。特朗普及其一些官员(如财政部长斯科特·贝森特)甚至否认存在“经济可负担性”的问题,或拒绝为此承担责任。
Indeed, a golden opportunity exists today for Democrats precisely because Mr. Trump’s second administration has entirely abandoned efforts to address economic imbalance and instead has become a case study in corruption and command capitalism Mr. Trump and some of his officials, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have taken to denying that there’s an affordability problem or refusing to take any responsibility for it. A growing