托比·奥尔德报道：受美伊对峙局势推高油价、加剧通胀担忧及市场对美联储进一步加息的预期影响，亚洲债券市场预计将跟随美国国债走低。
By Toby Alder Asian bonds looked set to track Treasuries lower as the US-Iran standoff kept oil prices elevated, adding to inflation concerns and bets on further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
新西兰政府债券开盘下跌，澳大利亚国债期货则显示债市将录得亏损，此前各期限美国国债收益率全线飙升。基准10年期收益率最多上涨11个基点至5.27%，创下19年来的新高；30年期收益率则跳升至5.55%。随着交易员预期美联储将继续收紧货币政策以遏制通胀，短端收益率也同步上升。
New Zealand government bonds opened lower, while futures pointed to losses for Australian debt after Treasury yields surged across maturities. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed as much as 11 basis points to 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high, while the 30-year rate jumped to 5.55%. Shorter-dated yields also rose as traders braced for the Fed to keep tightening policy to rein in inflation.
在亚洲早盘交易中，国际油价上涨。此前布伦特原油结算价突破每桶105美元，随着中东地区即将取得外交突破的乐观情绪消退，油价进一步走高。
US oil rose in early Asian trading after Brent settled above $105 a barrel as optimism faded for an imminent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.
亚洲股指期货走势分化，韩国和港股合约指向下跌，日本和澳大利亚股指则小幅上涨。在亚洲交易时段，美国股指期货小幅走低，此前标普500指数抹去了当月涨幅，纳斯达克100指数下跌1.1%。周一，美元走强，黄金价格小幅回落。
Equity-index futures for Asia were mixed, with contracts pointing to losses in South Korea and Hong Kong and marginal gains in Japan and Australia. US stock futures edged lower in Asian trading after the S&P 500 erased its advance for the month and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%. The dollar rose and gold dipped on Monday.
高企的油价通过维持通胀风险并复杂化利率前景，给全球债券市场带来额外压力。在美国，强劲的商业活动以及对政府债务的担忧，进一步加剧了自2025年4月唐纳德·特朗普总统推出关税政策引发市场震荡以来，美国国债最大规模的抛售潮。
Elevated oil prices are adding to pressure on global bond markets by keeping inflation risks alive and complicating the outlook for interest rates. In the US, stronger business activity and concerns over government debt have added fuel to the biggest Treasury selloff since President Donald Trump’s April 2025 tariff rollout rattled markets.
摩根士丹利旗下E*Trade的克里斯·拉金（Chris Larkin）表示：“由于收益率和油价上涨，大盘一直未能获得太大动力。随着美联储专注于其职责中的通胀方面，除非本周的劳动力市场数据出现重大意外，否则它很可能会退居利率和能源问题之后。”
“The broader market hasn’t been able to gain much traction because of rising yields and oil prices,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “And with the Fed focused on the inflation side of its mandate, unless this week’s labor-market data is a major surprise, it will likely play second fiddle to interest rates and energy.”
伊朗和美国在停火及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的问题上仍存在巨大分歧，德黑兰坚持特朗普已经拒绝的提议。特朗普否认了Axios的一篇报道，该报道称他愿意以“具体的核让步”为交换条件，提供制裁减免并解冻伊朗资金。据知情人士透露，伊朗官员私下里也对在11月美国中期选举前达成结束敌对行动并重新开放海峡的协议表示悲观。
Iran and the US remained far apart on a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran sticking to a proposal Trump has rejected. Trump denied an Axios report that he’s willing to offer sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange “for concrete nuclear concessions.”Iranian officials have also privately expressed pessimism about reaching an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the strait before the US midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter.
蒙特利尔银行资本市场（BMO Capital Markets）的伊恩·林根（Ian Lyngen）表示：“我们的预期仍然是，这场冲突在可预见的未来将持续影响市场，全球经济将继续适应供应中断的现实。”
“Our expectations remain that the conflict will be with markets for the foreseeable future and the global economy will continue adjusting to the realities of the supply disruptions,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
投资者本周还将密切关注一系列密集的美国经济数据，以寻找经济是否依然强劲到足以支持美联储进一步收紧政策的迹象。周二将公布消费者信心指数和8月JOLTS职位空缺数据，随后是周三的消费者支出和通胀数据，以及周五的非农就业报告。
Investors will also be watching a packed slate of US economic data this week for signs the economy remains strong enough to support further Fed tightening. Consumer confidence and August JOLTS figures are due Tuesday, followed by consumer-spending and inflation data and then payrolls on Friday.
信安资产管理公司（Principal Asset Management）的西玛·沙阿（Seema Shah）表示：“如果经济韧性和投资需求保持不变，收益率可能仍有进一步上升的空间。”
“If economic resilience and investment demand remain intact, there may still be scope for yields to move higher,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
在货币方面，日元在经历了一次由日本货币官员对日元疲软发出警告而引发的上涨后，在纽约市场小幅走低，仍将是市场关注的焦点。
In currencies, the yen will remain in focus after edging lower in New York following an earlier rally sparked by another warning from Japan’s currency czar over its weakness.
日本最高货币官员三村淳（Atsushi Mimura）周一告诉路透社，日本首相和财务大臣以及美国最近就货币贬值发出了“非常明确”的信息。周二早盘，日元兑美元汇率在157.40左右交易。
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency official, told Reuters on Monday that the country’s prime minister and finance minister, along with the US, had recently sent a “very clear” message about currency depreciation. The yen traded around 157.40 per dollar early Tuesday.
摩根大通纽约外汇策略师帕特·洛克表示：“政策制定者对日元贬值的持续不满，将强化市场在160关口附近自我约束的倾向。”市场主要变动如下：本文在彭博自动化系统的协助下完成。
“Ongoing policymaker discomfort with yen depreciation will reinforce the market’s tendency to self-police around the 160 level,” said Pat Locke, a currency strategist at JPMorgan in New York. Some of the main moves in markets: This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.