By Nia-Malika Henderson The cavalry has arrived for a panicking GOP in the form of hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign ads. The GOP is set to spend at least $888 million on advertising compared to $666 million by Democrats. Republicans hope the massive expenditure, which spans official committees and outside groups, can counter a sour national mood driven by high prices for basic goods.

It’s President Donald Trump’s unpopularity that has put the GOP in a defensive posture, focusing their ad deluge on red states and districts in their quest to keep their slim majorities in Congress. But never one to be left out, Trump has countered by using taxpayer money to blanket the airwaves with campaign ads featuring himself, including one during this weekend’s NFL games. The foreboding 30-second spot is nearly identical to an online campaign ad from January 2024, where Trump vows to “liberate America from these villains once and for all.”

“This is the final battle,” Trump darkly intones in the ad, which is aimed at the MAGA faithful.

For Republicans, who need their base, but also some share of independents, such a Trump-centered ad — airing as people are just trying to watch football — is likely not helpful.

Trump, of course, promised to be an economic fixer, yet his reckless war in Iran and punishing tariff policies have only made the cost of living worse. It’s why his approval rating on his handling of the economy is just 27%, according to a CNN poll. And it’s also why some Republicans — both lawmakers and average voters — are firmly in their new-phone-who-dis era, avoiding Trump in ads and in some cases, openly distancing themselves from his policies.

Gambling on record-setting ad spending is as good a bet as any, given that cash is the one major advantage that Republicans have over Democrats in this anti-incumbent cycle. The GOP is also typically better than Democrats at driving a message and keeping their base together. In their ads, Republicans are walking a tightrope of acknowledging Americans’ economic pain while touting the party’s successesand promising more.

“The Republicans tend to be focusing on taxes and being the party of lower taxes along with crime and immigration, which they still see voters as trusting them more on,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, a professor of government at Wesleyan University who directs a project that tracks and analyzes political advertising.

In Ohio, where Senator Jon Husted, who is not a natural on the stump, is in a tight race against former Senator Sherrod Brown, ads blame Brown for ignoring a border in crisis, sky-high prices, and supporting boys in girls’ sports. In Michigan, where Congressman Mike Rogers, a stiff campaigner, is running against former state health administrator Abdul El-Sayed, ads feature Rogers in a grocery store and in a manufacturing plant.

Republicans have reserved $29.8 million more than Democrats in Ohio and $24.7 million more in Michigan. Then there is Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton, a deeply flawed candidate, has a $26 million advertising edge over state lawmaker James Talarico. Republicans also have an advertising edge in Iowa and Alaska, red states where Democrats are hoping to flip seats.

That Republicans are spending in red states tells you how worried the party is. But Democrats’ failure to compete with the GOP’s money haul will hamper them in a year where so much is breaking their way. Some of the party’s biggest donors, reluctant after 2024 and nervous about drawing the ire of the Trump administration, are finally starting to come off the sidelines down the stretch. But it could be too late.

Nationally, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8 points. But these campaigns will come down to how voters in disparate states feel about individual candidates, views which will be shaped by partisan loyalty, but also by the messages they receive as they are tuning in and making up their minds. “said Franklin Fowler. ”

Which is why the money chasm should give Democrats pause. They are close in states that will determine control of the Senate, but hardly pulling away, so advertising is going to matter.

Democrats need to net three seats to win the House and four to win the Senate. Democrats are favored to take control of the lower chamber, with Cook Political Report shifting 15 seats in their direction last week. The Senate, however, remains an open question, even as Democrats have seemingly managed to expand the map into red states. Senate races that will determine the majority are all rated “toss ups” as candidates are within the margin of error according to most polls. The Republican Senate campaign arm has reportedly essentially ceded North Carolina and Georgia to Democrats, a sign of momentum that could result in a blue wave.

“This is the year Democrats to spread the field to throw deep, pick your metaphor,” said Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist on CNN. “This is the year to put all your chips on the table. Get the money, find the money, borrow the money, steal the money. Get some corrupto coin.”Democrats have a big opportunity to run the table, but money could hamper their chances, providing a much-needed lesson for this cycle and beyond. To contact the author of this story: at niamalikah@bloomberg.net