距离中期选举还有五周，美国人的钱包压力正在加剧：今年大部分时间里，工资涨幅一直没能赶上通货膨胀，借贷成本也已飙升。
Five weeks before the midterms, Americans' pocketbook pain is getting worse: paychecks haven't kept up with inflation for the better part of this year, and borrowing costs have surged.
为何重要：特朗普总统的政绩实际上正处于选票的考验之中，而包括共和党选民在内的民众对经济的看法依然极度低迷。这就是选民准备参加中期选举时的背景：
Why it matters: President Trump's record is effectively on the ballot, and economic sentiment remains deeply depressed, including among Republican voters. This is the backdrop as voters prepare to cast their midterm ballots:
- 在过去五个月里，普通员工的工资涨幅一直落后于通胀。这是一个近期的逆转：自2021年初以来，普通员工的时薪增长了29%，略高于消费者价格27%的涨幅。
- In the last five months, pay for rank-and-file workers has trailed inflation. That's a recent reversal: Since the start of 2021, hourly pay for rank-and-file workers has climbed 29%, slightly outpacing the 27% gain in consumer prices.
- 自特朗普上任以来，消费价格上涨了超过5%，并在拜登执政期间进一步攀升。
- Consumer prices are up over 5% since Trump took office, piling on Biden-era gains.
与一年前相比，加满15加仑的油箱现在要多花约20美元。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，全国普通汽油平均价格为每加仑4.48美元，比去年9月上涨了1.34美元。
It costs about $20 more to fill a 15-gallon tank of gas than it did a year ago. The national average for regular gas is $4.48 a gallon, up $1.34 from last September, according to AAA.
- 抵押贷款利率回升至7%以上，而信用卡、汽车贷款和其他贷款的利率依然居高不下。
- Mortgage rates are back above 7%, while rates on credit cards, auto and other loans remain elevated.
宏观来看：根据密歇根大学的追踪调查，消费者信心指数处于有记录以来的第二低水平。
Zoom out: Consumer sentiment is sitting at the second-lowest reading on record, according to the University of Michigan's tracker.
与特朗普的第一任期形成对比：在疫情之前，同一项调查显示美国消费者信心处于史上最强劲的时期之一。
Contrast that to Trump's first term: Before the pandemic, the same survey showed one of the strongest periods ever for America's consumer sentiment.
另一项指标也显示出类似的下滑：世界大型企业联合会的信心指数在2017年至2019年间的平均值为126，而最新公布的8月份数据仅为89.4。
Another gauge shows a similar decline: The Conference Board's confidence index averaged 126 from 2017-2019, compared with just 89.4 in August, the latest reading.
另一方面：这种糟糕的情绪与GDP数据中显而易见的强劲经济增长并存，但消费者在杂货店或加油站却很难感受到这一点。
The other side: The lousy sentiment comes alongside strong economic growth that's apparent in the GDP figures — but hard for consumers to appreciate at the grocery store or the gas pump.
亚特兰大联储发布的一项备受关注的GDP追踪数据显示，本季度经济正以5%的惊人速度增长。此外，失业率仍保持在4.1%的历史低位。
A closely watched GDP tracker published by the Atlanta Fed shows the economy growing at a blistering 5% pace this quarter. And unemployment remains a historically low 4.1%.
矛盾点：自相矛盾的是，特朗普所追求的经济强劲表现，反而加剧了影响其支持率的负担能力担忧。
关键要点：
Friction point: Paradoxically, the economic strength Trump wanted is contributing to the affordability concerns weighing on his approval ratings.
- 更强劲的经济形势为美联储进一步加息提供了支持，同时也加剧了资本市场的竞争，从而推动了长期利率的急剧上升，进而增加了家庭的借贷成本。
A hotter economy strengthens the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and intensifies competition for capital, helping feed the sharp rise in long-term rates that underpin household borrowing costs.
- 人工智能（AI）的快速发展也引发了人们的就业焦虑：根据盖洛普（Gallup）的调查，目前超过四分之一的美国劳动者担心技术会让他们失去工作——这一比例创下了历史新高。
The AI boom is also contributing to job anxiety. Over a quarter of U.S. workers now worry technology could make their jobs obsolete, according to Gallup — a record high.
白宫发言人Kush Desai的观点：“在特朗普总统任期内，实际消费者支出和零售销售的统计数据一直表现强劲。多亏了特朗普政府的减税政策、私营部门的就业创造以及投资热潮，美国消费者每天都在用他们的消费行为展现出自身的韧性。”
What they're saying: "The hard data of actual consumer spending and retail sales have been robust throughout President Trump's term so far," White House spokesman Kush Desai says. "American consumers are proving their resilience with their dollars every day thanks to the Trump administration's tax cuts, private-sector job creation, and investment boom."
总结： 特朗普总统实现了他所期望的经济增长，但并未带来通常伴随经济增长而来的民众情绪高涨。
The bottom line: President Trump has the growth boom he wanted, but not the sentiment uplift that usually comes with it.