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彭博社

俄罗斯原油出口繁荣因克里姆林宫柴油销售禁令而受挫Russian Crude Exports Boom Blunted by Kremlin’s Diesel Sales Ban

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作者:朱利安·李。俄罗斯在一个半月内出口了最多的原油,而油价的飙升推动这些货物的价值接近2022年入侵乌克兰以来的最高水平。但克里姆林宫所获收益正被其禁止海外柴油销售的措施所削弱。

By Julian Lee Russia shipped the most crude in a month-and-a-half, while a jump in prices propelled the value of those cargoes close to the highest since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But the benefits to the Kremlin are being undermined by its ban on overseas diesel sales.

彭博社汇编的油轮动态数据显示,在截至9月27日的四周内,海外原油流量升至每日371万桶。这是自8月初以来的最高水平。

In the four weeks through Sept. 27, overseas crude flows rose to 3.71 million barrels a day, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was the most since early August.

与此同时,由于沙特阿拉伯的原油运输持续中断——该国本月早些时候一条关键输油管道遭袭后正在进行维修——俄罗斯主要品级乌拉尔原油和ESPO原油的四周平均价格触及三个多月来的最高水平。

At the same time, four-week average crude prices for Russia’s key Urals and ESPO grades hit the highest in more than three months, amid ongoing disruption to Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments while it carried out repairs to a key oil pipeline that was attacked earlier in the month.

俄罗斯正在从中东紧张局势中获利,因其出口量增加与原油价格上涨相结合,充实了莫斯科的乌克兰战争资金。最近四周的收入仅略低于5月初创下的纪录。

Russia is reaping the rewards of the tensions in the Middle East, as its higher shipments combine with rising crude prices to boost Moscow’s Ukraine war chest. Inflows in the latest four-week period were just short of the record set in early May.

不过,原油销售带来的资金只是故事的一部分,而且很可能被成品油出口的骤降部分抵消。尽管俄罗斯将其2026年原油出口预测上调了约每日15万桶,但对其成品油出口预测的下调幅度更大,约为每日50万桶。

Still, the funds from crude sales are only part of the story and are likely being partially offset by a slump in refined products shipments. While Russia boosted its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150,000 barrels a day, it made a bigger cut of about 500,000 barrels a day to its forecast of refined product shipments.

乌克兰无人机袭击继续导致俄罗斯炼油厂停产。这迫使莫斯科将无法在国内加工的原油转入出口渠道,从而推高了出口量。然而,关键燃料的短缺已促使克里姆林宫停止大部分柴油的海外销售——在基辅加强袭击之前,柴油出口量平均约为每日100万桶——预计这一禁令将延长至10月底。

Ukrainian drone strikes continue to put Russian refineries out of action. That’s forcing Moscow to divert crude that can’t be processed domestically into the export stream, boosting shipments. However, a shortage of key fuels has led the Kremlin to halt overseas sales of most diesel, which averaged about 1 million barrels a day before Kyiv’s intensified attacks, a ban that’s expected to be extended through October.

船舶追踪数据和港口代理报告显示,在截至9月27日的一周内,约37艘油轮装载了2790万桶俄罗斯原油。相比之下,前一周为32艘船装载2499万桶。

In the week to Sept. 27, some 37 tankers loaded 27.9 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume compared with a 24.99 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.

彭博社看到的卫星图像显示,新罗西斯克的装载作业已恢复,但一些油轮在港口泊位的停留时间比正常情况长得多。

Loading operations recovered at Novorossiysk, but some tankers are spending much longer than normal at the port’s berths, satellite images seen by Bloomberg show.

每周的运输量可能会出现波动,受到天气、维护工作、制裁、军事活动以及出发时间的影响。

Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.

本周有一批来自新罗西斯克的哈萨克斯坦Kebco级原油装运。莫斯科本月已将所有哈萨克斯坦原油的运输改道至该黑海港口,从而为波罗的海乌斯季卢加港的俄罗斯自有原油腾出了更多运力,该港口被认为更安全。

There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Moscow has diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude this month through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.

上周海上俄罗斯原油的数量再次上升,反映出运输量的反弹。运往中国的北极原油通常会进行船对船转运。这些转运通常在新加坡以东(针对走红海航线的船只)以及纳霍德卡或扎鲁比诺附近(针对走北极航线的船只)进行。大多数Sokol原油货物也进行转运,通常在科兹米诺湾。这些转运可能会导致延误,从而增加海上的石油总量。

The amount of Russian crude on the water rose again last week, reflecting the rebound in shipments. Ships hauling Arctic crude to China are typically transferring their cargoes onto other vessels. These transfers usually take place east of Singapore from ships taking the Red Sea route and off Nakhodka or Zarubino for those taking the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These transfers can introduce delays, boosting the amount of oil at sea.

以四周平均值计算,截至9月27日的28天内,莫斯科的出口总值升至每周23.9亿美元,较截至9月20日的周期增加2.9亿美元,为5月24日以来的最高水平。这一增长是由俄罗斯主要原油价格上涨和出口流量适度增加共同推动的。

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports rose to $2.39 billion a week in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up by $290 million a week from the figure for the period to Sept. 20 and the highest since the period to May 24. The increase was driven by a combination of higher prices for Russia’s key crudes and a modest increase in flows.

从周度数据来看,出口价值跃升了约1.8亿美元,运输量的增加抵消了乌拉尔原油价格的下跌,后者随全球基准价格走低。27.5亿美元的周出口额创下了自2022年乌克兰全面战争爆发以来的最高纪录。

On a weekly basis, the value of exports jumped by about $180 million, with higher shipments more than offsetting a drop in Urals prices, which fell in line with global benchmarks. At $2.75 billion, the weekly value was the highest since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

中国和印度仍然是俄罗斯原油的最大买家,且其购买量远超其他国家。然而,往往直到原油运输过程进行到相当后期才能确定具体货物的最终目的地;因此,许多最近运输的原油在油轮上的标注显示为“苏伊士”或“苏丹港”等中间目的地,或者被标记为“未知的亚洲地区”。截至9月27日的28天内,运往俄罗斯亚洲客户的原油总量增至每天361万桶,而9月20日之前的这一数字为每天340万桶。

China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, marked as “Unknown Asia.”Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.61 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up from 3.4 million in the period to Sept. 20.

运往俄罗斯在地中海地区其他客户的原油量已降至自乌克兰冲突爆发以来的最低水平——在截至9月27日的四周内,这一数字降至每天约10万桶。

Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region have tumbled to the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine, falling to about 100,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 27.

运往土耳其(俄罗斯在苏伊士以西的最大原油买家)的原油量也大幅下降,从9月20日之前的每天8万桶降至每天约5万桶。

Flows to Turkey, Russia’s biggest buyer west of Suez, fell to about 50,000 barrels a day, down from 80,000 barrels a day for the period to Sept. 20.

另外,运往埃及(俄罗斯在地中海东部的新客户)的原油量在截至9月27日的四周内保持稳定,每天约为5万桶;这已经是埃及连续第三周保持这一运输量水平。

Separately, shipments to Egypt, Russia’s newest east Mediterranean customer, were steady at about 50,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to Sept. 27. That’s the third week they’ve been at that level.

自8月以来,运往叙利亚的原油量已降至零——此前叙利亚在与美国就解除剩余制裁的谈判中同意“大幅”减少俄罗斯原油的进口量。

Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.

这篇报道属于一个每周更新的系列报道,旨在追踪从俄罗斯出口码头发出的原油运输情况及其总价值。下一次更新将说明:所有数据均未包括被标记为“Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade”的原油货物。这些货物由KazTransoil JSC公司负责运输,通过俄罗斯的Novorossiysk和Ust-Luga港口出口,因此不受欧盟的制裁或价格限制的影响。

This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap.

这些哈萨克斯坦出口的原油会与俄罗斯产的原油混合,以形成统一的出口产品。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来,哈萨克斯坦已重新标记其原油货物,以区别于俄罗斯公司出口的原油。

The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

彭博社将船对船转运归类为秘密行为,前提是自动位置信号似乎被关闭或篡改(这种策略被称为“欺骗”),以掩盖两艘船只靠拢进行货物转运的事实。

Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.

船舶跟踪数据会与港口代理报告,以及包括 Kpler 和 Vortexa Ltd. 在内的其他信息提供商所报告的货物流向和船舶动态,还有覆盖俄罗斯港口的卫星图像进行交叉核对。

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.

如果您正在彭博终端上阅读本文,请点击链接获取一份关于俄罗斯至主要目的地四周平均货流量的 PDF 文件。

If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.