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更便宜的汽车,更昂贵的通勤Cheaper cars, costlier commutes

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特朗普政府放宽美国燃油经济性法规的时机可谓十分尴尬:此时汽油价格正让司机们重新意识到燃油经济性为何如此重要。

The Trump administration picked an awkward moment to relax America's fuel-economy rules: just as gasoline prices are reminding drivers why fuel economy matters.

为什么这很重要:特朗普将政策倒退包装为一项负担能力举措,称其将使新车价格降低约1300美元。问题在于,司机们在加油站会把这笔省下来的钱吐回去多少。

Why it matters: Trump is pitching its rollback as an affordability measure, saying he's knocking about $1,300 off the price of a new car. The question is how much of that drivers will hand back at the gas station.

推动新闻发展:联邦政府本周最终确定了燃油经济性标准,预计到2031年,车队平均油耗将降至每加仑34.9英里(mpg),低于拜登政府时期规则下的50.4 mpg。政府辩称,汽车将会更便宜,因为它们不再需要昂贵的节油技术。

Driving the news: The federal government this week finalized fuel-economy standards that would result in an estimated fleetwide average of 34.9 mpg in 2031, down from 50.4 mpg under the Biden-era rules. Cars will be cheaper, the administration argues, because they won't need costly fuel-saving technology.

汽车制造商对这一改变表示欢迎,称先前的规则实际上迫使他们销售比消费者想要的更多的电动汽车。

Automakers welcomed the change, saying the previous rules effectively forced them to sell more EVs than consumers wanted.

然而:消费者在汽车经销商处节省的资金,可能会被他们在加油站的支出所抵消。

Yes, but: What consumers save at the dealership could be offset by what they spend at the pump.

*交通部的分析估计,与拜登的规则相比,较宽松的标准将使到2050年的汽油消费量增加4.6%。

The Department of Transportation's analysis estimated the weaker standards would increase gasoline consumption by 4.6% through 2050 compared to the Biden rules.

因此,虽然交通部表示该法规将使制造商每辆车的平均成本减少1289美元,但与保留拜登的标准相比,在汽车的使用寿命内,按现值计算,它将使燃料成本增加1600多美元。

So while DOT said the regulation will reduce manufacturers' average cost per vehicle by $1,289, it would increase fuel costs by more than $1,600 in present value over the life of a vehicle, compared with keeping the Biden standards.

随着伊朗战争持续、汽油价格大幅上涨,这种权衡在现在显得尤为引人注目。

That tradeoff is especially conspicuous now, with gasoline prices sharply higher as the Iran war drags on.

聚焦:如果你想查看各种成本和收益的详细估计,《Axios能源未来》联合作者本·杰曼(Ben Geman)在此处标记了表8-3,在此处标记了表722。

Zoom in: Axios Future of Energy co-author Ben Geman bookmarked Table 8-3 here and Table 722 here if you want to see granular estimates of various costs and benefits.

背景回溯:这里存在一个历史讽刺。在阿拉伯石油禁运导致汽油价格飙升并暴露了美国对外国石油冲击的脆弱性之后,国会于1975年制定了联邦燃油经济性标准。

Flashback: There's a historical irony here. Congress created federal fuel-economy standards in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo sent gasoline prices soaring and exposed America's vulnerability to foreign oil shocks.

底线:半个世纪后,又一次中东石油危机正在实时提醒人们燃油经济性为何具有价值——而华盛顿却正在缩减旨在推广这一价值的规则。

The bottom line: Half a century later, another Middle East oil shock is providing a real-time reminder of why fuel economy has value — just as Washington is dialing back the rules designed to promote it.