旨在结束长达七个月战争的美伊间接谈判仍在继续——最近一次是通过卡塔尔作为调停者,在纽约联合国大会(联大)期间举行——但双方在议程上仍存在分歧。
Indirect talks between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the seven-month-long war continue– most recently via Qatar as mediator on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York – but the two sides still disagree about the agenda.
伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐于周二离开纽约,此前他告诉国营的伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台(IRIB),他预计在当天结束前收到对德黑兰关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡提议的正式回应。伊朗表示,根据该提议,海峡将在七天内重新开放,该提议于上周首次通过卡塔尔调停者转交给美国。
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left New York on Tuesday after telling state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) that he expects an official response to Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the day. The proposal, which Iran said would see the strait reopened within seven days, was first passed to the US via Qatari mediators last week.
据报道,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了该提议。根据该提议,作为德黑兰重新开放海峡的回报,华盛顿将解除海军封锁、豁免制裁、解冻估计120亿美元的伊朗资产,并执行包括黎巴嫩在内的更广泛地区停火。
United States President Donald Trump was reported to have rejected that offer, under which Tehran would reopen the strait in return for Washington lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions, releasing an estimated $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and enforcing a wider regional ceasefire that includes Lebanon.
根据伊朗的提议,包括讨论其核计划在内的更广泛和平谈判将在此之后才会开始。尽管特朗普公开拒绝,阿拉格齐表示他尚未收到华盛顿的正式回应。与此同时,美国媒体关于特朗普可能愿意放松制裁和解冻伊朗资产的报道遭到美国总统的强烈否认。
Under Iran’s proposal, wider peace talks, including discussions of its nuclear programme, would begin only then Despite Trump’s public rejection, Araghchi says he has not yet received a formal response from Washington. Meanwhile, US media reports that Trump may well be willing to relax sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets have been strongly denied by the US president.
相反,美国官员表示,美方希望达成一项能够一次性解决所有未决问题、特别是德黑兰核计划的协议,而不是采取渐进的、一步步推进的方法。以下是我们了解到的关于谈判的情况:卡塔尔斡旋的谈判发生了什么?
Instead, US officials say, the US wants a deal that resolves all outstanding issues, particularly Tehran’s nuclear programme, in one go, rather than pursuing a gradual, step-by-step approach. Here’s what we know about the talks: What happened in the Qatar-mediated talks?
卡塔尔调停者于周一在纽约会见了阿拉格齐,讨论如何推进德黑兰关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议,进而推进更广泛的和平谈判。
Qatari mediators met Araghchi in New York on Monday to discuss how to advance Tehran’s proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and then progressing to wider peace talks.
阿拉格齐在Telegram上发帖坚称,谈判完全集中在霍尔木兹海峡上。他否认美国已正式拒绝伊朗的提议。
In a post on Telegram, Araghchi insisted that the talks focused solely on the Strait of Hormuz. He denied that the US had formally rejected the Iranian proposal.
“尽管美国总统发表了那样的言论,但我表示我们仍在等待美国方面通过调解人给出的正式答复……卡塔尔方面有一些想法,我们已经进行了讨论。他们将会再次将这个问题提交给美国方面,之后美国方面的最终答复将通过卡塔尔的调解人传达给我们,”阿拉吉奇在周一晚些时候说道。
“Despite what the US president said, I said that we were waiting for the official US response through the mediators … They [Qatar] had ideas, and we discussed them. They are going to raise this issue with the American side again, and then the final response from the American side will be conveyed to us through the Qatari mediator,” Araghchi said late on Monday.
阿拉吉奇还表示,谈判的形势已经变得更加“严肃”,但他同时警告称德黑兰的立场并未改变。
Araghchi also said negotiations had become more “serious”, but cautioned that Tehran’s position has not changed.
“我坚决声明:伊朗的立场没有任何改变。我们关于开放霍尔木兹海峡的条件非常明确;我们在其他问题上的立场也同样明确。目前,我们完全没有讨论过任何妥协或让步的可能性,”他补充道。
“I state firmly that there has been no change in Iran’s position. Our conditions for opening the strait are clear. Our position on other issues is also clear. At present, there has been no discussion at all about flexibility,” he added.
德黑兰的提案中包含了《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》(ISLAMABAD MOU)中的部分内容,该备忘录由美国和伊朗于6月17日共同签署。特朗普是否愿意接受伊朗的一些要求?
Tehran’s proposal includes elements of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding (MoU), which was signed by both the US and Iran on June 17. Is Trump willing to accept some Iranian demands?
上周,一位美国官员告诉美联社(The Associated Press),在伊朗核问题得到解决之前,特朗普不愿意与伊朗达成最终的和平协议。这位未具名的官员表示,如果伊朗在核问题上的谈判取得进展,特朗普愿意解除对伊朗的制裁并解冻部分被冻结的资金。
A US official told The Associated Press news agency last week that Trump is not willing to make a final peace deal with Iran until the issue of its nuclear programme is addressed. According to the official, who has not been named, the US president would be willing, however, to grant Iran sanctions relief and release some frozen funds if progress is made on the nuclear file.
周一,总部位于美国的新闻媒体Axios也报道称,特朗普提出通过解除制裁来换取伊朗在核问题上的让步。该报道引用了美国官员的话,其中一位官员称这些间接谈判“积极且富有建设性”,并指出德黑兰在核问题上表现出“灵活性”。
Then, on Monday, US-based news outlet Axios also reported that Trump had offered Iran sanctions relief in return for concessions on its nuclear programme. The report also cited US officials, one of whom told Axios that the indirect talks had been “positive and constructive”, adding that Tehran had indicated it was “flexible” on nuclear issues.
然而,特朗普在其拥有的社交媒体平台Truth Social上愤怒地谴责这一报道为“骗局”,称其内容“完全不属实”,并要求Axios删除相关文章。
Trump, however, angrily denounced the story as a “hoax” in a post on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns. He said the story was “not true” and demanded Axios remove the article.
几十年来,伊朗一直受到严厉的制裁;这些制裁严重影响了伊朗人民的生活质量,包括他们获取基本药品和医疗服务的能力。
Iran has been heavily sanctioned for decades. The restrictions have severely affected Iranians’ quality of life, including their access to essential medicines and healthcare.
今年8月,美国宣布对伊朗及与其进行贸易的国家实施更为严厉的全面经济制裁,试图在两国交战陷入外交僵局期间施加更多经济压力,将该国孤立于全球经济之外。
In August, the US announced yet more sweeping economic sanctions on Iran and countries that trade with it as it sought to apply more economic pressure to isolate the country from the global economy during the diplomatic deadlock in their war.
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将这场运动形容为对伊朗的“经济窒息”。
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the campaign as the “economic asphyxiation” of Iran.
很难确切量化有多少伊朗人死于德黑兰所视的“经济战”。然而,备受推崇的医学期刊《柳叶刀·全球健康》去年发表的一项研究得出结论,全球每年有超过564,250人因美国的制裁而死亡。美国想要什么?
It is difficult to quantify exactly how many Iranians have been killed by what Tehran views as “economic warfare”. However, a study published last year by the highly regarded medical journal The Lancet Global Health concluded that more than 564,250 people worldwide die annually as a result of US sanctions. What does the US want?
2月下旬,就在美国对伊朗发动首次打击前不久,双方已在阿曼的主持下举行会谈,其中包括伊朗核计划问题。
In late February, just before the US launched its first strikes on Iran, the two sides were already holding talks hosted by Oman, which included the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme.
但在这些会谈结束之前,美国和以色列就发动了打击,导致伊朗封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。在和平时期,全球五分之一的石油和天然气都通过该海峡运送。自海峡关闭以来,它已成为双方争夺的主要焦点,而在战争爆发前,这并不是一个问题。目前该海峡正受到双方的封锁。
But before those talks could conclude, the US and Israel launched strikes, triggering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas is shipped in peacetime, by Iran. The closure of the strait has since become the primary point of contention between the two sides, when it had not been an issue before the war began. The strait is currently subject to blockades by both sides.
在整场战争期间,特朗普一再表示希望与德黑兰达成协议。然而,在此之前必须解决双方之间严重的温差,包括为了和平谈判而处理各项议题的先后顺序。
Throughout the war, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to strike a deal with Tehran. However, serious differences between the two sides will need to be resolved first, including the order in which issues are addressed for the purpose of peace talks.
伊朗希望在重新谈判核计划等其他议题之前,确立其对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权,解除制裁并解冻资产,同时确保美以停止空袭。这是伊朗与美国在6月达成的谅解备忘录中规定的先后顺序,但该备忘录很快破裂了。
Iran wants to establish its control of the Strait of Hormuz, have sanctions lifted and assets unfrozen, as well as ensure an end to US-Israeli strikes before it will go back to negotiating other issues, such as its nuclear programme. This was the order of events laid out in the MoU agreed between Iran and the US in June, but which quickly fell apart.
然而,美国希望所有问题都能同时被讨论;在解决其他问题之前,美国并不愿意同意任何与伊朗提出的要求相关的条款。
The US, however, wants everything to be on the table at the same time – it does not want to agree to anything relating to these Iranian demands before it addresses the other issues.
都柏林大学学院的美国政治与国际关系教授斯科特·卢卡斯告诉半岛电视台(Al Jazeera),华盛顿实际上希望伊朗能够屈服。
Scott Lucas, professor of US politics and international relations at University College Dublin, told Al Jazeera that Washington effectively wants Iran to surrender.
“霍尔木兹海峡已成为一个核心问题。关键在于:双方是否会做出让步?谅解备忘录明确赋予了伊朗管理该海峡的权力,”卢卡斯说。
“The Strait of Hormuz has become a fundamental issue. The question here is, will both sides give? The memorandum of understanding clearly gave Iran a role in the management of the strait,” Lucas said.
“当特朗普政府以‘谅解备忘录’为依据退出谈判时,他们实际上又回到了‘伊朗必须完全允许所有船只通过霍尔木兹海峡’的立场,而不对伊朗因此可能面临的财务损失或安全风险作出任何保障。伊朗政府显然不会同意这一点,所以我们目前处于一种僵局中,”他补充道。
“When the Trump administration pulled away from negotiating on the basis of the memorandum, they effectively went back to the idea of Iran having to completely allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz with no guarantees over it, in terms of not only what it means for Iran financially, but [also] in terms of Iranian security. The Iranian government is not going to agree to that, so we’re stuck in this limbo right now,” he added.
“特朗普政府是会基于这份谅解备忘录重新回到谈判桌前,还是会尝试通过经济手段来迫使伊朗屈服(至少要等到11月的美国大选之后?这就是我们目前的处境。”那么,伊朗到底想要什么呢?
“Are the Trump folks going to come back to the talks on the basis of the memorandum of understanding or something that is a revised version of it, or are they going to try and break the government with economic warfare until at least after the US elections in November? That’s where we are right now.”What does Iran want?
在与华盛顿长达半个世纪的敌对关系之后,伊朗希望巩固自己在一场并非自己发起的战争中所取得的战略成果。这具体包括伊朗新获得的、能够关闭霍尔木兹海峡的权力——这一举动不仅会导致全球能源市场陷入动荡,还会给特朗普政府带来更大的压力。
After half a century of bitter enmity with Washington, Iran wants to consolidate what it sees as the strategic gains it has made during a war it did not start. This specifically includes its newly established ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending global energy markets into a tailspin and placing additional pressure on the Trump administration.
自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击以来,霍尔木兹海峡问题一直是结束这场战争谈判的核心议题,也成为德黑兰最重要的谈判筹码。在冲突爆发之前,伊朗并未对该海峡拥有控制权,所有商业船只都可以自由通行。
Since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Hormuz has dominated talks aimed at ending the war and emerged as Tehran’s greatest point of leverage. Prior to the conflict, Iran did not exert control over the waterway and all commercial shipping passed through freely.
基于这个原因,在伊朗利用其对该海峡的控制权迫使其诉求得到满足之前,它不会推进更广泛的和平谈判。“我们的讨论很明确。目前,这仅仅关乎霍尔木兹海峡,”阿拉格齐于周一晚间表示。
For this reason, Iran will not move on to wider peace talks until it has leveraged its control of the strait to get its demands met. “Our discussion is clear. Right now, it is only about the Strait of Hormuz,” Araghchi said late on Monday.
“霍尔木兹海峡的开放同样以满足我们向对方宣布的一系列条件为前提。”伊朗治理与政策智库知识外交中心主任阿里·萨莱希扬(Ali Salehian)对半岛电视台表示,德黑兰不相信华盛顿会遵守任何未来的协议,就像它没有遵守今年6月在巴基斯坦斡旋下达成谅解备忘录中的内容一样。
“The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is also subject to the fulfilment of a series of conditions that we announced to the other side.”Ali Salehian, director of the Center for Intellectual Diplomacy at the Governance and Policy Think Tank in Iran, told Al Jazeera that Tehran does not believe Washington will honour any future deal as it did not honour what was agreed under the Pakistan-brokered June MoU.
萨莱希扬说:“对伊朗而言,鉴于特朗普所有的不良行为以及在谈判期间对伊朗进行的(军事)打击,与特朗普进行任何谈判的底线都是伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录。”
“For Iran, the bottom line of every negotiation with Trump, considering all of his misbehaving and [military] targeting of Iran during negotiations, is the Islamabad MoU,” Salehian said.
“德黑兰认为,如果美国不履行基于该谅解备忘录的承诺,就无法保证任何未来的协议能够持续下去。”2026年9月28日,在德黑兰巴哈雷斯坦广场,伊朗制造的“佐勒菲卡尔”导弹陈列在伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊巨幅肖像旁 [法新社] 接下来可能会发生什么?分析人士称,这场外交僵局在短期内似乎不太可能得到缓和。
“Tehran thinks that if the US doesn’t fulfil its commitments based on the MoU, there is no guarantee that any kind of future deal would be sustainable.”Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on September 28, 2026 [AFP] What is likely to happen next? It does not look likely that the diplomatic standoff will be eased anytime soon, analysts say.
美伊双方在整场战争期间都曾表示,比起继续战争,他们更倾向于通过外交手段解决。然而,特朗普继续威胁称,如果伊朗不同意达成协议,将对其进行更多打击;阿拉格齐周日对美国新闻媒体NBC表示,尽管德黑兰没有放弃外交手段,但也已做好了恢复战斗的准备。
Both the US and Iran have indicated throughout the war that they would prefer a diplomatic settlement to a continuation of the war. However, Trump has continued to threaten Iran with more strikes if it does not agree to a deal, and Araghchi told US news outlet NBC on Sunday that Tehran is also prepared to resume fighting, even though it has not abandoned diplomacy.
他说:“我们已为战争重新爆发做好了充分准备,我重定向,面对任何新的侵略,我们都将坚定不移,哪怕这意味着末日之战。”
“We are fully prepared for the time for the war to be resumed, and I repeat, we stand firm in the face of any new aggression, even if it comes to a doomsday war,” he said.
特朗普上周表示,他预计会达成一项协议,但要在11月3日美国中期选举之后。
Trump said last week that he expects a deal will be reached, but not until after the US midterms on November 3.
“目前,特朗普政府正试图通过经济手段迫使伊朗政府屈服,”卢卡斯说道。
“For the moment, the Trump administration is going to try to make the Iranian government capitulate through economic warfare,” Lucas said.
然而,双方之间依然存在着深刻的不信任。伊朗高级官员认为,特朗普会在中期选举后以更大的规模重新发动战争,而且以色列也会参与其中。
However, a deep sense of distrust remains between the two sides. Senior Iranian officials believe Trump will restart the war after the midterms on a far greater scale and that Israel would also participate.
如果这一预测成真,德黑兰可能会选择在11月大选之前重新挑起冲突——因为这样可以让伊朗给特朗普带来更大的打击。
If that theory proves true, Tehran may well prefer the fighting to resume before November’s elections, as it would allow Iran to impose a greater cost on Trump.
“伊朗方面的反应可能是主动挑起战争,尤其是在中期选举前夕,以此来最大限度地削弱这位美国总统的执政能力,”总部位于美国的昆西负责任治国研究所(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)的执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西(Trita Parsi)本月早些时候对半岛电视台(Al Jazeera)表示。
“The reaction of the Iranians to that might be to actually trigger the war themselves, early, right before the midterm elections in order to maximise the pain that [it] will impose on the US president,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera earlier this month.