文/马克·诺维科夫今年伊始，民主党在中期选举中夺回参议院控制权被视为大热倒灶。要完成这一任务，不仅需要在缅因州击败苏珊·柯林斯，还要在至少五个2024年支持唐纳德·特朗普的州获胜，同时守住本党所有现有席位。最现实的最佳情况似乎是重演特朗普首任期内所谓的2018年“蓝色浪潮”选举——当时民主党夺回了众议院，但参议院仍掌握在共和党手中。要控制参议院，民主党需要难以置信的好运。而现在，他们似乎真的等来了。
By Marc Novicoff When this year began, the Democrats were heavy underdogs to take back the Senate in the midterms. The task would require not only toppling Susan Collins in Maine but also winning at least five states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024, while holding on to all of the party’s existing seats. The realistic best-case scenario seemed to be a replay of the so-called blue-wave 2018 election, during Trump’s first term, in which Democrats took back the House but the Senate remained in Republican hands. To gain control of the upper chamber, Democrats would need an incredible stroke of luck. They might have gotten one.
特朗普决定向伊朗发动战争，导致油价飙升，这改变了政治可能性的边界。一年前，特朗普仅仅是不受欢迎：根据《纽约时报》民调平均值，不支持其表现的人比支持者多出约11个百分点。他现在巴不得能有那样好的数字。伊朗泥潭陷入七个月后，他的净不支持率已扩大至23个百分点——比1月6日事件发生后的即时民调还要糟糕。
Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran, and the resulting spike in oil prices, shifted the boundaries of the politically possible. A year ago, Trump was merely unpopular: By about 11 percentage points, more people disapproved of his performance than approved of it, according to The New York Times’ polling average. He would kill for such good numbers today. Seven months into the Iran debacle, his disapproval margin has widened to 23 percentage points—worse than his numbers in the immediate aftermath of January 6.
不出所料，特朗普的不受欢迎正蔓延至中期选举竞选中。近期民调对民主党极其有利，简直令人难以置信。特洛伊·杰克逊在缅因州领先，虽优势微弱；阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州保持温和领先；而在特朗普2024年获胜的摇摆州佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州，民主党优势更大。最令人震惊的是，民主党候选人有望在阿拉斯加、德克萨斯、俄亥俄和爱荷华州制造冷门，这些州2024年都以超过10个百分点的优势支持特朗普。
Predictably, Trump’s unpopularity is spilling out into the midterm races. Recent polls have been almost unbelievably positive for Democrats. Troy Jackson is ahead, albeit narrowly, in Maine. Abdul El-Sayed has a modest lead in Michigan, and Democrats have even bigger advantages in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, both of which Trump won in 2024. Most astonishing, Democratic candidates are in position to pull off upsets in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, which all went for Trump by more than 10 percentage points.
甚至在堪萨斯州（特朗普领先16个百分点）和内布拉斯加州（特朗普领先20个百分点），共和党现任议员也显得岌岌可危。因此，在预测市场中，民主党赢得参议院的几率现已超过60%。
Republican incumbents look beatable even in Kansas, where Trump won by 16, and Nebraska, where he won by 20. As a result, in prediction markets, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are now more than 60 percent.
阅读：支持者敦促特朗普为中期选举宣布戒严令 如果十一月的选举如民调所预示的那样发展，共和党将有他们的领袖——以及他们自己——要感谢。除少数例外，共和党候选人几乎未与总统拉开任何距离。事实上，包括俄亥俄州的乔恩·休斯特德和德克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿在内的关键红州必胜候选人，在同一场共和党中期选举大会上发表了演讲，特朗普在那里带领观众宣誓效忠“美国历史上最伟大的总统”。
Read: The supporters urging Trump to declare martial law for the midterms If the election in November plays out as the polls are suggesting it will, Republicans will have their leader to thank—and themselves. With few exceptions, Republican candidates have created almost no distance from the president. Indeed, candidates in must-win red states, including Jon Husted of Ohio and Ken Paxton of Texas, gave speeches at the same Republican midterm convention where Trump led the audience in a pledge to the “greatest president in the history of the United States.”
相比之下，民主党相对更有纪律。在阿拉斯加、北卡罗来纳、爱荷华、缅因、俄亥俄和内布拉斯加等州，成功招募到了有赢得温和选民记录的候选人，这些州的初选选民也足够明智地提名了他们（内布拉斯加的情况是提名了一位承诺退出、支持胜算更大的独立候选人的候选人）。即使在德克萨斯和密歇根等提名了吸引力较窄候选人的州，他们也在巧妙地摆脱其不受欢迎的进步立场。
Democrats, by contrast, have been relatively disciplined. Candidates with a track record of winning over moderate voters were successfully recruited in Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Nebraska, and primary voters in those states were wise enough to nominate them (or, in Nebraska’s case, nominate someone who promised to drop out in favor of an independent with a better chance to win). Even where candidates with narrower appeal were nominated, as in Texas and Michigan, they have been cannily pivoting away from their unpopular progressive stances.
如果民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院，他们将能够对特朗普余下总统任期内的野心形成真正的制衡。他的立法议程将任由民主党摆布。民主党将利用对两院委员会的控制权，对政府的不当行为和腐败发起广泛调查。而特朗普的司法提名人将需要令人信服地证明他们将是公正的法官，而非教条式的忠诚者。
If Democrats won both the House and Senate, they would be able to put a real check on Trump’s ambitions for the rest of his presidency. His legislative agenda would be at their mercy. Democrats would use their control of committees in both chambers to launch extensive investigations into government wrongdoing and corruption. And Trump’s judicial nominees would need to make a convincing case that they’d be impartial judges, not dogmatic loyalists.
民主党的全面胜利将产生超越2026年的连锁效应。该党今年赢得的每一个参议院席位，都会让2028年的胜利变得更容易。如果两年后的选举环境对民主党依然有利，该党有可能在威斯康星和北卡罗来纳赢得席位。突然间，一个更强大、更多元、在全国范围内更具竞争力的民主党至少变得可想象了。
A Democratic sweep would have ripple effects beyond 2026. Each Senate seat that the party picks up this year makes winning in 2028 that much easier. If the electoral environment remains favorable for Democrats two years from now, the party could feasibly pick up seats in Wisconsin and North Carolina. Suddenly, a stronger, more diverse, and more nationally competitive Democratic Party is at least imaginable.
所有这些分析都建立在“民意调查结果准确”的前提下。在连续三次总统选举中，民意调查机构都严重低估了特朗普的吸引力。正如共和党民意调查专家帕特里克·鲁菲尼所指出的那样，支持民主党的倾向在那些“红色州”（即共和党占优势的州）最为明显，而这些州正是民主党需要争取以夺回参议院控制权的地区。此外，并非所有的民意调查结果都对民主党有利：最近《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合进行的一项调查显示，在缅因州柯林斯领先；不过在大多数民意调查中，杰克逊仍处于领先地位。
All of this analysis hinges on assuming that the polls are accurate. For three presidential elections in a row, pollsters have badly underestimated Trump’s appeal. And in general, as the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has pointed out, the pro-Democratic bias tends to be largest in red states, the very ones that Democrats need in order to take back the Senate. Moreover, not every poll has looked good for Democrats—a recent New York Times and Siena College survey found Collins ahead in Maine, though Jackson leads in most polls.
对于民主党来说，一个好消息是：特朗普执政时期的中期选举民意调查结果总体而言非常准确（其准确性远高于总统选举年份）。这是因为中期选举的选民群体中，那些对政治缺乏兴趣、不信任政府、难以被民意调查机构接触到的选民比例较低；而这些选民在特朗普参选时往往会积极参与投票。
Read: The Republicans are bolting from Trump The good news for Democrats is that Trump-era midterm polls have been highly accurate on average, much more so than in presidential-election years. That’s because the midterm electorate includes fewer of the low-trust, politically disengaged voters who are so hard for pollsters to reach and disproportionately turn out when Trump is on the ballot.
即便民意调查结果确实准确，但从现在到11月3日之间情况仍可能发生变化：特朗普或许能在伊朗问题上取得胜利；某些民主党候选人可能会卷入丑闻；共和党候选人也可能在选举后期设法与特朗普保持距离。
Even if the polls are accurate, things could change between now and November 3. Perhaps Trump could find a way to credibly declare victory in Iran. Individual Democratic candidates could become embroiled in scandal. Republican candidates could figure out how to distance themselves from Trump down the stretch.
然而，目前最有可能出现的情景（尽管难以置信）是：民主党能够在特朗普在2024年以高票优势获胜的州中赢得多个参议院席位，从而控制国会两院，从而获得参与立法过程的权力，并对特朗普的权力形成有效的制衡。令人惊讶的是，如今反而是共和党人正在寄希望于好运的发生……
Yet the likeliest scenario at the moment, hard as it is to believe, is Democrats winning multiple Senate seats in states that Trump won in 2024 by double digits, taking control of both houses of Congress, earning the right to be involved in the legislative process, and providing a meaningful check on Trump’s power. The remarkable fact is that Republicans are now the party hoping for a stroke of good luck.