共和党人处处受挫。这个州就是风暴中心。今年年初，全国政治中最主要的潜在趋势似乎依然是长期摇摆州向共和党堡垒的转变。佛罗里达州、艾奥瓦州、俄亥俄州：你越仔细观察，特朗普总统的党派似乎就越不可攻破。
Republicans Are Struggling Everywhere. This State Is the Epicenter. At the start of this year, the largest underlying trend in national politics still seemed to be the transformation of longtime swing states into Republican bastions. Florida, Iowa, Ohio: The closer you looked, the more invulnerable President Trump’s party seemed.
俄亥俄州的形势曾经非常严峻。2022年，州长迈克·德万以25个百分点的优势击败了民主党对手。一年前，与特朗普结盟、正在竞选州长的生物科技亿万富翁维韦克·拉马斯瓦米对民主党对手埃米·阿克顿保持着近两位数的领先优势。
The situation in Ohio was stark. In 2022, the governor, Mike DeWine, had beaten his Democratic opponent by 25 points. A year ago, the Trump-allied biotech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor, held nearly a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.
俄亥俄州的高技术产业是一个重要因素。在乔·拜登总统2022年签署的《芯片与科学法案》所激发的两党热情推动下，这依然迎合了共和党现任官员的优势。英特尔正在哥伦布附近建设一座巨大的芯片厂。拉马斯瓦米当时承诺要将俄亥俄河谷变成下一个硅谷。“人们总在谈论铁锈地带，”他在去年3月说道，“我不想谈论铁锈地带。我想引领我们走向白金地带——从半导体到核能再到人工智能，涵盖未来的各个领域。”但时代变了。
Ohio’s high-tech industry was big factor. A bipartisan enthusiasm spurred by President Joe Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, it nonetheless played to the strengths of Republican incumbents. Intel was building a huge chip plant near Columbus. Mr. Ramaswamy was promising to turn the Ohio River Valley into the next Silicon Valley. “People talk about the Rust Belt,” he said in March of last year. “I don’t want to talk about the Rust Belt. I want to lead us to the platinum belt — the sectors of the future, from semiconductors to nuclear energy to even A.I.”
本月，博林格林州立大学委托YouGov进行的民意调查显示，阿克顿以三个百分点的优势领先拉马斯瓦米。现任共和党参议员乔恩·胡斯特的情况也类似。在今年年初，胡斯特似乎很有希望保住他的席位。但自6月以来，民调显示他落后于前参议员谢罗德·布朗，后者在2024年曾被共和党人伯尼·莫雷诺惨痛击败。
But times have changed. This month, a YouGov poll for Bowling Green State University found Ms. Acton leading Mr. Ramaswamy by three points. The incumbent Republican senator Jon Husted has fared similarly. Mr. Husted appeared likely at the start of the year to keep his seat. But since June, polls have shown him trailing the former senator Sherrod Brown, who was soundly defeated by the Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024.
许多事情的发生让公众对特朗普所在的党派感到不满，其中包括与伊朗的战争以及不断上涨的物价，但大部分不满情绪与高技术产业（如加密货币）及其需求（如针对科技工人的H-1B签证）有关。最重要的是，共和党人正在为人工智能数据中心的建设付出政治代价。
A lot has happened to sour the public on Mr. Trump’s party, including the war with Iran and rising prices, but much of the discontent involves high-tech industries (like cryptocurrencies) and their needs (like H-1B visas for tech workers). Above all, Republicans are paying a political cost for the buildout of data centers for artificial intelligence.
上个月，Axios 刊登了一份来自国家共和党参议员委员会的泄露备忘录，文中对布朗先生开始投放的视频广告极其有效表示震惊。这些广告将哈斯特德先生与数据中心落户俄亥俄州挂钩。备忘录称：“在这场竞选中，没有任何其他因素比数据中心更像是悬在哈斯特德脖子上的沉重锚。如果他败选且数据中心背锅，全国政客都会引以为戒——他们将不敢碰下一个数据中心项目。”
Last month, Axios published a leaked memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee that expressed alarm about the devastating effectiveness of video spots Mr. Brown had begun airing. These tied Mr. Husted to the arrival of data centers in Ohio. “More than any other thing in this race,” the memo said, “data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck. If he loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one.”