通胀率在截至8月的一年中跃升至4%,高于3.5%,吉姆·查尔默斯再次被迫为工党的经济管理进行辩护,因为人们担心澳洲联储(RBA)将在圣诞节前再次加息。
Inflation has jumped to 4% in the year to August, from 3.5%, as Jim Chalmers was again forced to defend Labor’s economic management amid fears the Reserve Bank will need to hike interest rates again before Christmas.
这位日益陷入困境的财长被指责通过坚持政府支出并非高通胀的罪魁祸首,而是将责任归咎于持续的美以对伊朗战争导致的燃油成本上升,从而对澳大利亚人进行“煤气灯效应”式操控。
The increasingly embattled treasurer was accused of “gaslighting” Australians by insisting that government spending was not responsible for high inflation, blaming instead higher fuel costs associated with the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.
查尔默斯在悉尼对记者表示:“从今天的通胀数据可以看出,与7月相比,8月年度总体通胀率上升的压倒性原因是全球油价上涨传导至澳大利亚油价的影响。”“这不是观点,而是事实。”
“We can see in today’s inflation figures that the overwhelming reason why annual headline inflation has come up in August compared to July is because of the impact of higher global oil prices flowing through to oil prices in Australia,” Chalmers told reporters in Sydney. “That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact.”
澳大利亚统计局(ABS)表示,上个月燃油价格飙升15%,此前中东冲突恶化引发全球油价反弹,且政府取消了燃油消费税减免。澳大利亚统计局证实,运输成本上涨是当月物价上涨的主要推手。
Fuel prices surged by 15% last month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, after a worsening Middle East conflict triggered a rebound in global oil prices and the government ended its cut to the fuel excise. Rising transport costs were the prime contributor to price increases in the month, the ABS confirmed.
但澳大利亚统计局表示,截至8月的12个月里,住房建筑成本上涨5.4%是年度高通胀的主要驱动因素之一,“因为建筑商将材料和人工的更高成本转嫁给了买家”。
But a 5.4% increase in home building costs over the 12 months to August was one of the prime drivers of high annual inflation “as builders passed on higher costs for materials and labour”, the ABS said.
由于去年同期家庭还在领取政府电费补贴,电费账单也高于去年同期。
Electricity bills were also higher than this time last year when households were still receiving government rebates.
总体通胀率的上涨幅度略低于经济学家预期,而核心通胀率——剔除了波动最大的价格项目——在截至8月的一年中保持在3.6%不变。
The rise in headline inflation was slightly less than economists had anticipated, while underlying inflation – which removes the most volatile prices swing – was steady at 3.6% in the year to August.
两者仍远高于澳洲联储2.5%的目标。EY首席经济学家Cherelle Murphy表示,“年底前再次加息的可能性很大”。
Both were still well above the RBA’s 2.5% target. Cherelle Murphy, EY’s chief economist, said “another rate hike looks likely by the end of the year”.
在澳洲联储将现金利率上调至4.6%——这是2026年的第四次加息——的第二天,Murphy表示,“他们(澳洲联储)手头上还有一场持久战要打”。“这还远未结束。”
A day after the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.6% – the fourth increase in 2026 – Murphy said “they [the RBA] have an ongoing fight on their hands”. “This is not the end of it.”
查尔默斯周三下午否认他与央行行长米歇尔·布洛克存在分歧,后者在前一天的新闻发布会上表示,“通胀过高,且是由国内产能压力推高的”。
Chalmers on Wednesday afternoon denied that he was at odds with Michele Bullock, the central bank governor, who at her press conference the previous day said “inflation is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures”.
但布洛克也指出了中东冲突恶化以及与人工智能相关的数据中心支出突然激增。
But Bullock also pointed to the worsening Middle East conflict and the sudden boom in AI-related spending on datacentres.
她说:“这些事态发展表明,通胀压力将比先前预期持续更长时间。”
“These developments suggest that inflationary pressures will persist for longer than previously expected,” she said.
墨菲表示,事实是联邦和州两级政府的支出都很高,这正在增加经济中的需求。
Murphy said it was a fact that spending by governments, at the commonwealth and state levels, was high, and that this was adding to demand in the economy.
她说,这意味着政府在任何新支出方面都应极其谨慎——包括额外的生活成本救助——以免增加澳储行的工作难度。
She said this meant the government should be extremely careful with any new spending – including additional cost of living relief – for fear of making the RBA’s job harder.
但她表示,无法准确量化政府支出在2026年持续高企的通胀中究竟负有多大责任。
But she said it was impossible to quantify exactly to what extent government spending was responsible for persistently high inflation in 2026.
“我认为这是目前通胀问题中最大的部分吗?不,问题最大的部分是我们面临着这些全球供给冲击。
“Do I think this is the biggest part of the inflation problem right now? No, the biggest part of the problem is that we have these global supply shocks.
“我们正在目睹多起事件同时发生的累积效应,而没有一件对通胀有利。”
“What we are witnessing is the accumulation of a number of events happening together, and none of them are good for inflation.”