总统大选竞选活动主要聚焦于法国的债务问题，并在两个极端之间展开。一方是激进左翼政党“法兰西不屈服”，主张取消欧洲央行持有的债务；另一方是极右翼政党“国民联盟”，用一句概括性的口号来形容局势：“法国破产了”。
The presidential election campaign, which has largely focused on France's debt, has been unfolding between two extremes. On one side, the radical-left party La France Insoumise has called for cancellation of debt held by the European Central Bank (ECB). On the other, the far-right Rassemblement National sums up the situation with a sweeping phrase: "France faillite" ("Bankrupt France").
然而，这两种情景发生的可能性都极低。取消债务意味着命令欧洲央行执行，这是不可能的：欧洲条约确立了欧洲央行的独立性。此外，这些条约还禁止“货币化”债务（即通过央行为其提供资金）：取消债务几乎肯定会被视为正是这种行为。未来的总统需要极大的勇气，才能说服德国、奥地利或荷兰修改条约，给予法国这种特惠。
Both scenarios however are highly unlikely. Canceling the debt would mean ordering the ECB to do so, which is impossible: European treaties have made the ECB independent. Moreover, those treaties also prohibit "monetizing" the debt (funding it through the central bank): A cancellation would almost certainly be seen as exactly that. One would need a great deal of courage as a future president to convince Germany, Austria or the Netherlands to change the treaties and grant France such a favor.
至于破产，法国不是希腊。它仍然是欧盟第二大经济体，拥有多元化的经济基础，并在航空航天、金融服务和奢侈品跨国企业等领域拥有卓越中心。法国筹集资金毫无困难，每一次债务拍卖都顺利完成，尽管利率已大幅上升。
As for bankruptcy, France is not Greece. It remains the European Union's second-largest economy, with a diversified base and centers of excellence in areas such as aerospace, financial services and luxury multinationals. The country has had no trouble raising funds, with every debt auction passing smoothly, even though interest rates have risen sharply.
还有一种可能性更大的第三种情景，因为它在邻国已发生过：过去四十年的意大利。意大利是一个富裕但零增长国家的典型案例，它保持着一些显著优势——北部工业部门极具竞争力，也是主要旅游目的地——但深受灾难性人口前景、南部地区极度落后和沉重债务负担的拖累。法国的债务和经济显然正在呈现意大利化特征。
There is a third scenario, much more likely because it has already happened in a neighboring country: Italy over the past four decades. Italy is a prime example of a wealthy country with no growth, maintaining some notable strengths – its northern industrial sector is highly competitive and it is a major tourist destination – but it suffers from a disastrous demographic outlook, a very poor southern region and is weighed down by a crippling debt burden. France's debt and economy are clearly taking on Italian characteristics.
意大利的公共财政在20世纪80年代开始偏离正常轨道。短短十年间，该国债务就翻了一番，超过了国内生产总值（GDP）的110%；这一趋势的主要原因是巨额财政赤字以及高企的利息率。意大利至今仍未真正恢复到良好的财政状况。整个20世纪90年代，意大利都在努力整顿公共财政，但这一过程是以牺牲公共投资以及未来的经济增长为代价的。自2007年全球金融危机以来，意大利的经济发展一直受制于金融市场以及与德国利率之间的利差（即“利率差”）。
Italy's public finances veered off course in the 1980s. In just one decade, the country's debt doubled to over 110% of gross domestic product, fueled by enormous deficits and punitive interest rates. Italy has never really recovered. The entire 1990s was spent trying to restore public finances, but this came at the expense of public investment and, ultimately, future growth. And since the global financial crisis of 2007, Italy has lived at the mercy of financial markets and the "spread" (the difference with German interest rates). You have 41.22% of this article left to read. The rest is forrs only.