东京，9月30日：消息人士透露，日本央行预计未来加息将更快、更有规律地进行，以预防通胀超调风险，这使得本周即将公布的数据在判断其下一步行动时机方面显得更加重要。
TOKYO, Sept 30 : The Bank of Japan expects interest rate increases to happen faster and more regularly in future as it pre-empts risks of an inflation overshoot, sources said, enhancing the importance of data due this week in gauging the timing of its next move.
如果周四的“短观”调查显示企业通胀预期升温，或周五的通胀数据显示价格压力扩散，将可能强化在10月或12月再次加息的理由。
Any sign of heightening corporate inflation expectations in Thursday's "Tankan" survey or broadening price pressures in Friday's inflation data will likely bolster the case for another rate hike either in October or December.
部分市场参与者认为10月加息的可能性存在，因干预威胁未能提振日元，迫使日本央行必须通过更激进的货币紧缩来支撑汇率。日元疲软推高了进口价格和家庭整体生活成本。
Some market players see chances of an October hike, with threats of intervention failing to lift the yen and putting the onus on the BOJ to underpin the currency with more aggressive monetary tightening. A weak yen pushes up import prices and the broader cost of living for households.
然而，鉴于刚刚加过息，日本央行届时大概率会为10月加息设定较高门槛，仅当外部冲击加剧通胀超调风险时，才会将其作为选项，三位熟悉其想法的消息人士表示。
Having just raised rates, however, the BOJ will likely set a high hurdle for an October hike, which becomes an option only if external shocks boost risks of an inflation overshoot, said three sources familiar with its thinking.
“虽然存在通胀风险，但目前没有明确证据指向价格增速出现突然、急剧飙升的可能性，”其中一位人士称，另一位人士也表达了相同看法。
"While inflation risks exist, there's no clear evidence now pointing to the chance of an abrupt, sharp spike in price growth," said one of them, a view echoed by another source.
日本央行行长植田和男也曾表示，只有在存在价格急剧上涨风险，或基调通胀已超过日本央行2%目标时，才会连续加息。
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda too has said a back-to-back increase could come only if there was a risk of sharp price rises or if underlying inflation was already above the BOJ's 2 per cent target.
但他同时强调，央行已准备好“预防性”行动，以避免被迫采取极端措施，这表明日本央行将不再在会议间隔中花费过长时间来提高借贷成本。
But he also stressed the central bank's readiness to act "pre-emptively" to avoid being forced to take extreme steps, a sign the BOJ will no longer spend an inordinate amount of time in between meetings to lift borrowing costs.
“金融环境依然宽松，要求日本央行根据需要稳步加息，”第一位消息人士称。
"Financial conditions remain accommodative, requiring the BOJ to hike steadily as needed," the first source said.
“随着基调通胀收敛至2%左右，日本央行可能觉得有必要稍微加快步伐，”另一位消息人士表示。日本央行未立即回应置评请求。因事项敏感，消息人士要求匿名。
"With underlying inflation converging around 2 per cent, the BOJ probably feels the need to speed up a bit," said another source. The BOJ did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
前日本央行（BOJ）董事会成员樱井诚（Makoto Sakurai）与现任货币政策制定者保持着密切联系，他向路透社表示，预计日本央行会将目前的基准利率（1.25%）上调至2%，时间可能在明年6月左右。
Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai, who retains close ties with incumbent policymakers, told Reuters he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate — now at 1.25 per cent — to 2 per cent by around June next year.
关于通胀预期：上田（Ueda）在2023年上任后坚持维持宽松的货币政策长达一年之久，直到随后逐步退出了持续了十年的刺激措施。2024年，日本央行仅加息一次；2025年则加息两次，其决策过程一直非常谨慎，主要关注经济下行风险。直到6月，日本央行才转变策略，开始重点应对通胀问题，并将基准利率上调至1.0%——因为进口成本的上升加剧了全面价格上涨的可能性。
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS KEY Ueda sat tight for a year after taking office in 2023 before exiting a decade-long stimulus. The BOJ then hiked rates once in 2024 and twice in 2025 under a cautious approach focused on downside economic risks. It pivoted to an approach focused on fighting inflation in June, when it raised rates to 1.0 per cent as rising import costs heightened the chance of broad-based price rises.
7月时，日本央行维持基准利率不变，但同时表达了对其日益严重的通胀压力的担忧，并暗示了9月可能再次加息。上田表示，由于潜在通胀率已接近2%，日本央行的货币政策已进入“新阶段”，其重点将转向防范通胀风险，这为未来更频繁的加息奠定了基础。
The BOJ kept rates steady in July but stressed its alarm over mounting price pressures, previewing the hike in September. With underlying inflation close to 2 per cent, the BOJ's policy has entered a "new phase" focusing on forestalling inflation risks, Ueda said this month, paving the way for speedier rate hikes.
他还指出，有两个“非常重要的因素”让他确信潜在通胀率已接近2%：一是长期通胀预期的上升，二是工资水平的持续增长。
He also said two "very important factors" convinced him that underlying inflation was nearing 2 per cent: rising long-term inflation expectations and steady wage gains.
周四发布的“企业景气调查”（Tankan）将显示企业对通胀的预期是否会进一步上升（目前企业通胀预期已达到三个月前的历史新高）。根据路透社的调查显示，东京地区的核心消费者通胀率很可能在9月升至2.4%，较8月的1.8%大幅加快，这表明通胀压力正在加剧。这些数据将影响日本央行下个月发布的最新季度预测。根据目前的预测，日本央行预计全国范围内的核心通胀率将在2026财年达到2.5%，2027财年达到2.4%。
Thursday's Tankan will show whether corporate inflation expectations could heighten from already record levels hit three months ago. Core consumer inflation in Tokyo is likely to have hit 2.4 per cent in September, a Reuters poll showed, accelerating sharply from 1.8 per cent in August, in a sign of broadening price pressures. The data will affect the BOJ's new quarterly forecasts due next month. In current forecasts, it expects nationwide core inflation to hit 2.5 per cent in fiscal 2026 and 2.4 per cent in fiscal 2027.
野村证券（Nomura Securities）的利率策略师岩下玛丽（Mari Iwashita）表示：“关键在于日本央行会将其2027财年的通胀预测上调多少，以及它能否推迟通胀峰值出现的时机。这些信息将对日本央行的加息决策产生重要影响。”
"The key would be how much the BOJ will revise up its fiscal 2027 inflation forecasts ... and how far it could push back the timing for when inflation peaks," said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities. "That will offer very important messages on the BOJ's rate-hike timing."