TOKYO -- When Dag Hammarskjold visited the Vatican in the 1950s as the secretary-general of the United Nations, Pope Pius XII told him that he was his "lay counterpart," according to Emery Kelen's biography of the Swedish diplomat.

Hammarskjold himself at times applied the label "secular pope" to his work as U.N. chief. The similarity goes beyond lending moral authority to values like peace and human rights in the U.N. Charter and advocating for them globally. The way the leader is chosen is also secretive and somewhat mystical.

In late September, world leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gathered in New York for the U.N. General Assembly. Behind the scenes, the U.N. was working to prepare for the selection process for a successor to Antonio Guterres, who will be leaving his role as secretary-general at the end of the year after two terms spanning over a decade.

"It's a lot like a papal conclave," said Masashi Nakayama, a professor at Japan's Soka University, referring to the selection process.

The secretary-general is effectively chosen by the U.N. ambassadors from the 15 member countries of the body's Security Council, narrowing down the candidates to just one through a series of secretive straw polls. The candidate chosen by the Security Council through these ballots is then recommended to the General Assembly, which customarily gives its approval.

The 15 ambassadors have three options in voting: "encourage," "discourage" or "no opinion." The candidate must be supported by at least nine countries for final recommendation, and cannot have received a "discourage" from any of the five permanent members of the Security Council.

Although the initial straw polls are anonymous voting, a possible "discourage" from a permanent representative would signal that the candidate would, in effect, be vetoed in the final round.

The selection process for Guterres' successor is set to be unusually competitive, reflecting the turmoil in the international community, such as tensions between China, Russia and the U.S. The Trump administration sees U.N. reform and security as a priority, and is critical of the body's stance toward Israel.

Meanwhile, Russia's U.N. ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, and his Chinese counterpart, Fu Cong, were seen walking side by side around the time of the third straw poll on Sept. 18, suggesting possible coordination.

Vasily Nebenzya, right, Russia's U.N. ambassador, and his Chinese counterpart, Fu Cong, walk after the third straw poll to select the next U.N. secretary-general in New York on Sept. 18.

© Kyodo The frontrunner following the fourth round of votes on seven candidates on Tuesday was United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. The Costa Rican gained 10 "encourage" votes, the only candidate to clear the nine-vote threshold required for a final recommendation, according to PassBlue, a news organization focused on the U.N.

Grynspan also received three "discourage" votes, but that was down from five in the round before.

In the third round, Michelle Bachelet, former two-time president of Chile, received 11 "discourage" votes and has since announced her withdrawal from the race. As there are only 10 nonpermanent members, receiving 11 discourages means that at least one permanent member must have voted against her. The election for secretary-general also reflects the power dynamics within the Security Council.

Japan is currently not a nonpermanent council member and is therefore not part of the selection process. In an interactive dialogue with two of the secretary-general candidates in April, Japan's U.N. ambassador, Kazuyuki Yamazaki, said that the relevance of the council is now in questions as "its composition is a mere snapshot of the international environment from 80 years ago."

One of the candidates, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Association, said that the secretary-general has "no magic wand" and expressed a cautious stance toward the chief personally being considered a driver of reform. Grynspan, meanwhile, responded that "the Security Council will carry more weight if it will represent more the world of today than the world of 1945." Japan, still labeled as an "enemy state" in the U.N. Charter, hopes to become a permanent member of the Security Council. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi held talks with his counterparts from G4 countries -- Germany, India and Brazil -- while visiting the U.S. with Takaichi, confirming reciprocal support for their permanent memberships.

But the world has changed from when the G4 proposal was first submitted in 2005. At the time, Japan's economy was the second largest in the world, but has since slipped to No. 4, after being overtaken in terms of nominal gross domestic product by China in 2010, and then by Germany in 2023. Moreover, voices pushing for representation are multiplying, with Africa driving for two of its countries to become permanent members.

From left, the foreign ministers of Brazil, Germany, India and Japan meet in New York on Sept. 22. (Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs) "South Korea would be against Japan [being a permanent member] while Pakistan would oppose India; Italy would oppose Germany and Argentina would oppose Brazil. And it would be hard to select the two African countries too," said Eiji Yamamoto, former Japanese ambassador to Brunei.

Winning approval from all five permanent members would also be a challenge. Yamamoto suggests that G4 nations should continue advocating for more representation but should consider various options. "Creating a 'semipermanent member' status that enables longer terms [than nonpermanent members] and can be re-elected, but comes without veto power, could be an option," said Yamamoto. Indeed, a strategy that centers on achievable reforms, such as those that could win wider support from Global South countries and beyond, appears essential.

The process will soon move to color-coded ballots in which votes cast by permanent Security Council members are distinguished from those of nonpermanent members, making it easier to identify whether a candidate faces a potential veto. If all seven of the current candidates receive discourage votes from any of the permanent members, the process may have to start all over again with new candidates.

When the papal conclave elects a new pope, white smoke is vented from the chimney of the Vatican's Sistine Chapel. It is still unclear whether the security council can create white smoke and come to a consensus on the world's next secular pope.

The veto rights of the major powers could result in the selection of someone who is "inoffensive to everyone, completely bland, colorless and tasteless," says Soka University's Nakayama. But is that acceptable now, as war continues in Ukraine, Iran and elsewhere, with China, Russia and the U.S. at odds?

Hammarskjold used "good offices," a diplomatic process in which a neutral third party helps disputing groups restart talks or communication. He laid the foundations of U.N. peacekeeping operations during the 1956 Suez Crisis, and was posthumously awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after being killed in a plane crash on the way to negotiate a ceasefire in Congo in 1961.

"What the world needs now is a Hammarskjold-style secretary-general," said Yamamoto, a suggestion that carries considerable weight.