根据美国抵押贷款银行协会（Mortgage Bankers Association, MBA）周三发布的数据，在截至9月25日的一周内，美国抵押贷款利率连续第六周上升，达到了近三年来的最高水平，这严重阻碍了潜在购房者的购房计划。30年期固定利率抵押贷款的合同利率上升了18个基点，达到7.30%，为2023年11月以来的最高水平；5年期可调利率抵押贷款的利率则上升了37个基点，达到6.47%，为两年多来的最高水平。
By Michael Sasso US mortgage rates climbed for a sixth straight week to an almost three-year high, thwarting would-be homebuyers. The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 18 basis points in the week ended Sept. 25 to 7.30%, the highest since November 2023, according to Mortgage Bankers Association figures released Wednesday. The rate on a five-year adjustable mortgage surged 37 basis points to 6.47% — the highest in more than two years. Higher home-financing costs are spelling more difficulty for an already troubled housing market.
不断上涨的住房融资成本给本已陷入困境的房地产市场带来了更大的压力。MBA的购房指数下降了4.3%，降至2025年4月以来的最低水平；该机构的再融资指数也进一步下跌了8.7%，延续了自8月中旬以来的下滑趋势。
The MBA purchase index, which measures loan applications, fell 4.3% to the lowest level since April 2025. The group’s refinance gauge tumbled another 8.7%, extending a skid dating back to mid-August.
抵押贷款利率与10年期国债收益率密切相关——由于中东地区的冲突以及俄乌战争导致能源成本和整体通胀持续上升，10年期国债收益率一直在攀升。周二，10年期国债收益率达到了19年来的最高水平。
Mortgage rates closely track 10-year Treasury note yields, which have been climbing as conflict in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war keep energy costs and overall inflation elevated. On Tuesday, the 10-year yield hit the highest level in more than 19 years.
人们对政府债务的担忧，以及近期显示经济强劲增长的数据，也在推高借贷成本。为抑制通胀，美国联邦储备系统（Federal Reserve）本月早些时候首次上调了基准利率。投资者预计美国央行将在年底前再次加息。
Concerns about government debt and recent data showing solid economic activity are also contributing to the rise in borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate earlier this month for the first time since 2023 in an effort to tame inflation. Investors expect US central bankers will hike again by the end of the year.
First American Financial Corp.的首席经济学家马克·弗莱明（Mark Fleming）表示，当抵押贷款利率超过7%时，更多的人将被迫继续居住在现有的房屋中，因为购房者目前所承担的3%或4%的贷款利率与当前较高的贷款利率之间的差距正在不断扩大。他指出，虽然房屋销售可能会进一步放缓，但除非出现导致房屋被强制出售（如止赎）的重大经济衰退，否则房价大幅下跌的可能性不大。
Mortgage rates above 7% will keep more people tethered to their current homes because the gap between homeowners’ existing 3% or 4% mortgages and today’s higher rates is getting wider, said Mark Fleming, chief economist at title insurer First American Financial Corp. While sales could slow further, a large price drop is unlikely, provided there isn’t a major economic downturn that causes forced sales like foreclosures, he said.
弗莱明表示：“房价存在‘下行粘性’现象——即房价上涨的速度会逐渐放缓，甚至最终停止上涨。”在美国房地产市场中，二手房销售一直表现不佳，难以实现显著增长。8月份的房屋交易完成数量降至一年多来的最低水平。
Prices are “downside sticky,” Fleming said. “They generally slow down or stop going up.”Sales of previously owned homes, which make up the bulk of the US housing market, have struggled to gain any traction. Contract closings fell in August to their weakest pace in more than a year.
这项自1990年以来每周都进行的MBA调查显示，数据来源于抵押贷款银行、商业银行和储蓄机构的反馈。这些数据涵盖了美国75%以上的零售住宅抵押贷款申请情况。
The MBA survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990, uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.