中期选举竞选季仅剩一个多月,这场仿佛永无止境的拉锯战终于接近尾声。正如《政治报》记者乔纳森·马丁上周所言,共和党面临的民调悬崖已变得如此严峻,以至于“中期选举前唯一的不确定性,只剩下该党败选程度的深浅”。这绝非特朗普总统及其“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)追随者去年年底在审视一张看似可守的红色选区地图时所期望听到的信息。
There’s just over a month left in a midterm campaign season that feels like it has dragged on forever, and as Politico’s Jonathan Martin opined last week, the polling cliff facing Republicans has grown so dire that “the only uncertainty remaining ahead of the midterms is the depth of the party’s losses.”That’s hardly the message President Trump and his MAGA minions hoped to end with when they weighed a defensible red electoral map late last year.
华盛顿的民主党领导层同样正面临自己的清算时刻。自1992年以来,从未有如此多的民主党现任议员在初选中落败,而取代他们的候选人则承诺推行一项全面改革的政策议程,并誓言要彻底改组该党在众议院和参议院的领导层。然而,呼吁变革是一回事,真正落实变革则是另一回事。在奥巴马和拜登执政期间,民主党多次错失取得实质性进展的机会,选民早已对漫长的等待感到厌倦。
Washington’s Democratic leaders are also facing their own moment of reckoning. More incumbent Democrats have lost their primaries than at any time since 1992, and the candidates who have replaced them are promising a sweeping policy agenda coupled with a pledge to shake up the party’s House and Senate leadership. But calling for change is one thing — actually delivering on it is another beast altogether. After years of missed opportunities to claim real gains under Presidents Obama and Biden, voters are sick of waiting.
来自德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科、缅因州的特洛伊·杰克逊、密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士、明尼苏达州的佩吉·弗拉纳根,以及其他众多冉冉升起的新星,这些民主党外部人士正通过承认民主党治下的变革往往慢得令人窒息、仿佛毫无进展,来疏导选民的挫败感。他们的规划甚至超越了2026年,直指2028年那场关键的总统大选——届时,这些挑战者型民主党人或许将迎来黄金机遇,将其中一人送入白宫。
Democratic outsiders, like Texas’s James Talarico, Maine’s Troy Jackson, Michigan’s Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan and a host of other rising stars, are channeling voters’ frustration by acknowledging that change under Democrats has often come so slowly that it often feels like nothing is moving at all. Their plan even looks beyond 2026 to the pivotal presidential contest in 2028, when insurgent Democrats may have a golden opportunity to elevate one of their own to the White House.
部分原因在于,即便是最有雄心的改革者,也不指望一个处处受制于顽固白宫的民主党国会能取得多少进展。如果共和党在11月如民调日益显示的那样遭遇惨败,特朗普绝不会愿意与那些重创其MAGA联盟的民主党人合作。
That’s partly because even the most ambitious reformer doesn’t expect much progress from a Democratic Congress hobbled at every turn by a recalcitrant White House. If Republicans go down in flames in November, as polls increasingly suggest they will, Trump will be in no mood to work with the Democrats who battered his MAGA coalition.
艾尔-赛耶德及其阵营可能成功推选一位局外人取代参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默,却会发现未来两年仍将深陷政府拨款停摆的僵局和预算困局。民主党或许能在少数政策领域与特朗普找到共识,例如双方都希望以禁止华尔街企业收购住宅或禁止议员炒股为筹码,宣称取得民粹主义胜利。但这些妥协不会毫无代价,民主党基本盘势必会对任何与白宫的合作报以强烈鄙视,因为他们认为,与特朗普合作无异于是最高层面的背叛。
El-Sayed and company could succeed in electing an outsider to replace Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer only to find their next two years jammed with shutdown standoffs and budgetary gridlock. Democrats may find narrow areas of policy overlap with Trump, like their shared desire to claim a populist victory by banning Wall Street firms from buying up residential homes or barring lawmakers from trading stock (despite Trump being perhaps the most prolific stock trader in the presidency’s history). But those compromises won’t come cheap, and any cooperation with the White House will likely come with a healthy dose of scorn from a Democratic base that views any collaboration with Trump as a betrayal of the highest order.
塔拉里科或杰克逊是否愿意接受禁止政治人物炒股、禁止华尔街企业收购住宅的条件,以换取大幅增加对移民与海关执法局的拨款?这一点尚不明朗,但考虑到他们目前开展的竞选活动,以及他们希望民主党政府在2029年以后实现的长期目标,这种可能性似乎极低。挑战建制的民主党人或许会意外地与舒默结盟。外界普遍预计这位来自纽约州、任职多年的参议员不会寻求另一个六年任期,但“参议院元老”依然极其在意自己留下的政治遗产。
Would Talarico or Jackson have the grit to accept a ban on politicians trading stock and an end to Wall Street homebuying in exchange for a big boost to ICE funding? It’s unclear, but seems highly unlikely given the campaigns they are currently running and the longer-term goals they desire from a Democratic administration beyond 2029. Insurgent Democrats may find an unlikely ally in Schumer. It’s widely expected that the long-serving New Yorker will not seek another six-year term, but the Old Man of the Senate is still acutely sensitive to his legacy.
舒默显然已经从密歇根州初选中那场惨败且无功而返的代理战中吸取教训,最近试图修复与艾尔-赛耶德的关系,通过超级政治行动委员会向他提供了1000万美元,以助其在普选中胜出。如今,民主党基本盘中的大多数人都已团结支持这些他当初未能击败的局外人,舒默或许会发现,拥抱一种能够成就政治遗产的“大帐篷式民粹主义”,比强行按照自己的意愿推进事务更有利。
Schumer has clearly learned a lesson from his bitter and unsuccessful proxy battle to defeat El-Sayed in the Michigan primary, and recently tried to mend fences by dispatching $10 million in superPAC money to bolster El-Sayed’s general election chances. With most of the Democratic base now rallying behind the very outsiders he failed to beat, Schumer may find it more advantageous to embrace the kind of “big-tent populism” that defines political legacies instead of trying to force his own way forward.
如果民主党在参议院的一批非建制派议员能够说服因局势动荡而不安的党内建制派领袖,在他们将标志性提案落实为具体政策时给予政治支持,他们或许就能获得成为高效议员所需的施展空间。然而,如果得不到党内认可,民主党将再次陷入掌握权力却相互争抢麦克风的局面。能否让情绪多变的民主党基本盘保持信心,将是新任议员能力的一项关键考验。
If Democrats’ contingent of Senate outsiders can convince the party’s rattled establishment leaders to grant them political cover as they develop their signature proposals into actual policies, they may find the breathing room necessary to be effective lawmakers. Without that buy-in, though, Democrats will once again find themselves holding power and yet fighting among themselves for the microphone. Keeping the temperamental Democratic base from losing faith will be a key test of the new lawmakers' skills.
选民十分支持塔拉里科提出的“新美国梦想”计划。这是一揽子规模庞大的反腐和民生法案,将重塑联邦廉政法规,并应对日益严峻的生活成本危机。但如果可能由民主党人出任总统,他们是否愿意等到最早2029年,才能让塔拉里科最重要的优先事项得到认真审议?民主党选民对党内变化缓慢感到不满、沮丧、焦虑和愤怒。
Voters love Talarico’s proposed “New American Dream” program, a huge bundle of anticorruption and quality of life bills that would reshape federal ethics laws and address the mounting affordability crisis. But are they willing to wait until 2029 at the earliest for Talarico’s biggest priorities to get a real hearing under a possible Democratic president? Democratic voters are upset, frustrated, anxious and angry about the slow pace of change in their party.
他们最有效的政治人物已经把这些情绪转化为空前高涨的选民热情,迎接我们有生之年最重要的选举之一。胜选将是第一步,但在选举日投票结束后,制定真正运用权力的计划将是头号重点。马克斯·伯恩斯是资深民主党战略家,也是“第三度战略公司”的创始人。
Their most effective politicians have harnessed those emotions to generate a record amount of voter enthusiasm ahead of one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. Winning will be the first step, but developing a real plan for using their power will be Priority No.1 once the polls close on Election Day. Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.