- 人工智能的推动作用： 人工智能正在推动经济的快速增长，劳动力市场几乎没有出现疲软的迹象。
The boom: AI is helping fuel an economy running surprisingly hot, with few signs of labor market weakness. The squeeze: Americans are paying more for gasoline, alongside borrowing costs at multidecade highs.
- 生活成本上升： 美国人购买汽油的成本正在上升，同时借贷成本也达到了几十年来的最高水平。
Driving the news: The economy grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, a sharp upgrade from the 1.5% previously reported.
- 经济增长数据： 第二季度经济增长率为年化2.2%，远高于此前公布的1.5%；其中，私人消费和固定投资的增长尤为显著（年化增长率分别为4.6%和7.7%）。
Underlying growth was even more striking. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — a measure of consumer spending and private fixed investment that strips out volatile categories like trade and inventories — rose at a 4.6% annualized rate in the second quarter, revised up from 4.2%.
- 实际购买力的变化： 尽管经济增长数据看似乐观，但经通胀调整后的可支配收入在8月份停滞不前（甚至出现下降），实际工资增长也连续五个月呈负增长。
That is up sharply from 1.8% growth in the January-March period and matches the strongest underlying growth since 2021. Friction point: The economy is booming in ways that don't necessarily make households feel richer, with the AI investment surge accounting for an unusually large share of growth.
- 家庭感受： 消费者仍在持续消费，但实际购买力并未增强；个人储蓄率从7月份的4.6%下降至4.1%。
详细分析：
Consumer spending grew at a 3.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, but business investment grew twice as fast at 7.7%, with data center construction helping drive the surge.
人工智能对经济的贡献： 人工智能技术的发展为经济增长提供了强大动力，尤其是在企业投资（尤其是数据中心建设）方面。
The AI boom helping power the economy is also adding to inflation pressures and fueling anxiety about what the technology means for jobs.
生活成本压力： 然而，汽油价格和借贷成本的上升给人们的生活带来了压力。
Zoom in: For households, the on-paper economic boom is not translating into stronger purchasing power.
消费与储蓄： 尽管收入增长放缓，消费者的支出仍在增加，但储蓄率却在下降。
Disposable income, adjusted for inflation, stalled in August — down from a 0.3% gain in July. (A separate measure of real wage growth has declined for five straight months.)
通胀担忧： 经济的快速增长引发了人们对人工智能技术对就业市场影响的担忧。
Yes, but: Consumers kept spending anyway, according to monthly data released Wednesday morning.
结论： 虽然人工智能正在推动经济繁荣，但其带来的生活成本上升和就业压力不容忽视。
Real personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.6% in August, far outpacing income growth and pushing the personal saving rate down to 4.1% from 4.6% in July.
全国经济协会（Nationwide）的首席经济学家凯西·博斯扬奇克（Kathy Bostjancic）在一份报告中写道：“由于物价上涨，许多家庭要么减少了每月的储蓄额，要么更加依赖信贷来维持生活。”
Americans are saving a smaller share of their income than they were this time last year. The saving rate has fallen from 5.2% in August 2025 to 4.1%, near the lower end of its post-pandemic range.
总体来看，有新的证据表明劳动力市场依然保持稳定，这进一步证明了经济状况比消费者情绪所显示的更为强劲。根据薪资数据处理公司ADP的数据，9月份私营雇主新增了9万个就业岗位——这一数字是8月份修正后的新增就业岗位数（3.6万个）的两倍多。不过，就业增长主要集中在医疗保健等少数几个行业。
"Households pinched by higher prices have been either reducing their monthly savings rate or relying more on credit," Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a note. The big picture: There is new evidence the labor market is holding up, adding to evidence of an economy that's stronger than the sour consumer mood alone might suggest. Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September — more than double August's revised 36,000 gain, according to payroll processor ADP. But hiring remains concentrated in a handful of sectors, including health care.
ADP的首席经济学家内拉·理查森（Nela Richardson）周三上午对记者表示：“虽然整体就业数据令人满意，但我希望看到更多行业能够从中受益。”
"The big picture number is great. Under the hood, I'd like to see more breadth," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters Wednesda morning.
关键结论是：经济在进入秋季时依然保持着强劲的发展势头，但这种增长趋势与消费者的实际感受截然相反。
The bottom line: The economy enters fall with more momentum than anyone knew, a type of boom that is completely at odds with how consumers feel about it.
这对美联储（Federal Reserve）意味着什么？从表面上看，通胀情况有所改善；不过物价压力仍然过高，令美联储感到担忧。根据美联储青睐的通胀指标（即排除食品和能源价格后的通胀率），过去三个月的通胀率为每年2%，符合美联储的整体目标。这一通胀率的放缓为美联储提供了更多时间来决定是否再次加息。
What it means for the Fed For the Federal Reserve,inflation looked somewhat better beneath the surface — even as price pressures remain too high for the Fed's comfort. By the numbers: Underlying inflation, measured by the Fed's preferred gauge excluding food and energy, ran at a 2% annualized rate over the past three months, in line with the central bank's overall target. That recent cooling bolsters the case for the Fed to take its time before raising rates again.
数据显示，两年期国债收益率在数据公布后略有下降，降至约4.85%；交易者们因此下调了对美联储短期内再次加息的预期。根据CME的FedWatch调查显示，10月份美联储加息0.25个百分点的概率从51%下降到了35%。
The two-year Treasury yield fell slightly after the data to about 4.85%, with traders dialing back expectations for another near-term Fed hike. The odds of a quarter-point hike in October fell to 35% from 51%, according to CME FedWatch.
纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）周二也表达了类似的观点，他表示美联储在本月早些时候加息后，完全有理由暂时推迟再次加息的决策。威廉姆斯表示：“鉴于我们在9月份会议上已经采取了相应的政策措施，目前没有必要急于行动，我们有时间收集更多相关信息。”
What they're saying: New York Fed president John Williams hinted as much on Tuesday, saying that the central bank can afford to wait after raising rates earlier this month. "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information," Williams said.
但他表示，如果经济继续保持强劲（周三早上的数据表明情况确实如此），且通胀水平持续居高不下，那么今年晚些时候仍有再次加息的可能性。
But he left on the table the possibility of another increase later this year if the economy remains strong (Wednesday morning's data suggests that is the case) and inflation stays elevated.
关于通胀问题，威廉姆斯指出：“与人工智能相关的需求冲击所带来的通胀影响日益明显。”他认为，随着供应逐渐跟上需求的增长，这些通胀压力将会得到缓解；不过具体缓解的时间和程度仍难以预测。
What to inflation, he noted. "[T]he inflationary impact of the AI-related demand shock is increasingly salient," Williams said. He expects those pressures to ease as supply catches up, though the timing and magnitude are uncertain.