霍尔木兹海峡的原油出口已基本恢复至伊朗战争前的正常水平，美国军方提供护航支持，推动运输量增加，同时管道改变了原油流向。
Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have basically returned to levels normal before the Iran war, as U.S. military escorts have boosted shipments and pipelines have redirected flows.
据油轮追踪机构Kpler周三发布的数据，截至周一，经霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油日均达到1350万桶的七日均值，与战前通过该海峡的运输基准相当。
Crude transiting Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day as of Monday, which matches a prewar baseline for shipments through the strait, according to data published Wednesday by Kpler, a firm that tracks tankers.
伊朗在整个战争期间一直宣称控制霍尔木兹海峡，并多次宣布关闭海峡。然而，Kpler大宗商品研究主管马特·史密斯表示，随着大量原油经由霍尔木兹海峡运输，德黑兰对该地区的影响力正在减弱。
Iran has claimed throughout the war that it controls Hormuz and has declared the closure of the strait multiple times. But Tehran is losing its influence as strong volumes pass through Hormuz, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.
Kpler数据显示，包括波斯湾和红海在内的中东地区原油运输量有时高于战前水平。截至周一，该地区原油日均运输量达到1950万桶的七日均值，超过了战前约1700万桶的基准。
Crude oil shipments from the Middle East region, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, are sometimes higher than prewar levels. The region reached a seven-day average of 19.5 million bpd as of Monday, surpassing a prewar baseline of about 17 million bpd, the Kpler data showed.
摩根大通全球大宗商品战略主管纳塔莎·卡内娃表示，各地区的恢复并不均衡。卡内娃说：“尽管成品油供应仍然受限，原油市场已基本恢复正常。”
But the recovery is uneven, said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan. The "crude market has largely normalized even as refined product supplies remain constrained," Kaneva said.
由于中东供应受限，且乌克兰持续打击俄罗斯炼油厂，全球正面临燃料危机。据Kpler数据，截至周一，经霍尔木兹海峡运输的成品油日均仅为67.7万桶的七日均值，而战前为360万桶。
The world faces a global fuel crisis as supplies from the Middle East are constrained and Ukraine pounds Russian refneries. Refined products shipped through Hormuz are at a seven-day average of 677,000 bpd as of Monday compared to 3.6 million bpd before the war, according to Kpler.
数据显示，原油和成品油的合计运输量七日均值达到每日1420万桶，约为霍尔木兹海峡战前约1700万桶基准水平的80%。
Crude and product shipments together stood at a seven-day average of 14.2 million bpd which is about 80% of the Hormuz prewar baseline of about 17 million bpd, the data showed.
全球供应缺口已将美国柴油价格推至历史高位，对经济健康构成重大威胁。在中期选举前，共和党议员向美国总统唐纳德·特朗普施加政治压力，特朗普正在考虑实施出口禁令。
The global supply shortfall has pushed diesel prices in the U.S. to record highs, which poses a major threat to health of the economy. President Donald Trump is considering an export ban as he faces political pressure from Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterm elections.
“最大的问题在于柴油市场，”美国银行全球商品部门负责人弗朗西斯科·布兰奇（Francisco Blanch）在9月8日的CNBC节目《Squawk on the Street》中表示。
"The biggest source of pain is the diesel market," Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, told CNBC's " Squawk on the Street " on Sept. 8.
根据Kpler的数据，由于美国海军的封锁，伊朗的原油出口量急剧下降。唐纳德·特朗普总统试图通过切断伊朗的主要收入来源来迫使伊朗屈服。美国还加大了制裁力度。
Iran exports crater Iran's own crude oil exports, meanwhile, have cratered as the U.S. Navy blockades the Islamic Republic, according to Kpler data. President Donald Trump is trying to force Tehran into a settlement by shutting down its main source of revenue. The U.S. has also ramped up its sanction campaign.
美国财政部部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在周日接受福克斯新闻（Fox News）采访时表示：“伊朗大约两周后将完成最后一次原油出口，届时他们将‘没有任何东西可以用来交换其他东西’。”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday that Iran will make its final crude deliveries to China in about two weeks, leaving them with "nothing left to trade for anything."
“华盛顿有些人认为，应该让封锁措施发挥作用——我们可以等待伊朗做出让步，”RBC资本市场全球商品策略部门负责人赫利玛·克罗夫特（Helima Croft）在9月25日的CNBC节目《Power Lunch》中说道。
"There are some in Washington who say, let the blockade do its work — we can wait out Iran," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Sept. 25.
然而，拉皮丹能源公司（Rapidan Energy）首席执行官、前中央情报局官员斯科特·莫德尔（Scott Modell）在周一表示：“目前没有确凿证据表明美国的经济压力能够从根本上改变伊朗的立场。”
But there is no hard evidence that U.S. economic pressure will fundamentally change Iran's positions, Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy and a former CIA officer, told CNBC's " " on Monday.
上周，伊朗提出如果美国重新遵守6月份达成的那份协议，他们将在七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。根据该协议，美国曾同意解除封锁，并允许伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡的未来管理问题进行谈判。
Iran last week offered to reopen Hormuz in seven days if the U.S. returns to the failed memorandum of understanding from June. The U.S. made major concessions under the MOU, agreeing to lift its blockade and allow Iran to negotiate with Oman a future system of administration for Hormuz.
但该协议在夏季破裂后，海湾地区的冲突再度爆发。美国官员向《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）透露，特朗普拒绝接受伊朗的最新提议，并表示计划在中期选举后继续对伊朗实施轰炸。
虽然伊朗的原油出口量已恢复到战前的水平，但霍尔木兹海峡的安全状况仍远未恢复正常；伊朗仍不断向油轮发动攻击，这些攻击有时会造成人员伤亡。
The MOU collapsed over the summer into renewed fighting. Trump has rejected Iran's latest offer and told his aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections, unnamed U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal How the Gulf adapted While the level of exports are at or near prewar levels, the security conditions in the strait are far from normal. Iran continues to fire on tankers in attacks that are sometimes lethal.
据 Kpler 的数据显示，作为应对措施，8 月份通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油中有超过 70% 被转运到了阿拉伯联合酋长国或阿曼沿海的油轮上。这些转运油轮将原油运送到阿曼湾，随后原油会被装载到另一艘油轮上，最终运往亚洲。
In response, more than 70% of the crude oil that crossed Hormuz in August switched tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates or Oman, according to Kpler. Shuttle tankers bring oil through Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. The cargo is then loaded onto another tanker that delivers it to Asia.
这一转运系统得到了美国军方的保护，从而降低了原油受到伊朗攻击的风险。然而，由于该系统依赖于美国的军事支持，其可持续性仍存在不确定性。
This shuttle system is protected by the U.S. military and reduces the risk of exposure to attack from Iran. But it is unclear how long this system can be sustained given that it relies on U.S. military protection.
“这种转运方式成本非常高昂，同时也需要美国投入大量军事资源，”克罗夫特（Croft）指出。“海湾国家并不认为这种‘船对船’的转运方式以及军事护航能够替代霍尔木兹海峡的正常通航功能。”
"It's very expensive and it's a huge U.S. military commitment," Croft said. And the Gulf states don't view the "patchwork arrangement" of ship-to-ship transfers and military escorts as an acceptable substitute for Hormuz being open, she said.
此外，由沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国运营的管道也在承担着重要的运输任务。根据 Kpler 的数据，目前约有 40% 的海湾地区原油通过这些管道运输，而战前这一比例仅为 17%。不过，这些管道同样容易受到攻击；本月早些时候，沙特阿拉伯的东-西输油管道因遭到来自伊拉克的无人机袭击而被迫关闭，但随着该管道的修复，从沙特红海港口延布（Yanbu）的原油出口量已逐渐恢复。
Pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also doing a lot of heavy lifting. About 40% of Gulf crude oil now bypasses Hormuz through these pipelines compared to 17% before the war, per Kpler. But pipelines are also vulnerable to attack. The Saudis shut down their East-West pipeline earlier this month after it sustained damage in a drone strike launched from Iraq. Loadings have picked up at Saudi's Red Sea port of Yanbu in a sign that the pipeline is running again.
在管道中断期间，原油运输并未受到严重影响，因为沙特阿拉伯仍能够依靠美国军方保护的转运系统继续通过霍尔木兹海峡进行出口。不过，随着外交僵局的持续，该地区的石油供应仍可能面临中断的风险。
Crude flows remained resilient during the pipeline outage because Riyadh was able to shift its exports back through Hormuz due to the shuttle system protected by the U.S. military. But the region's oil supplies could face disruption again as stalemated diplomacy raises the risk of renewed fighting.
“我认为总统在中期选举后可能会采取更为强硬的措施；我们不断听到有关伊朗可能在中期选举后采取激进行动的报道，”拉皮丹（Rapidan）的莫德尔（Modell）表示，“局势正朝着进一步升级的方向发展。”请在谷歌上的新闻来源，确保不错过任何商业新闻的重要信息。
"The president I think is going to escalate after the midterms, we keep hearing that the Iranians are going to esclatate into the miderms," Rapidan's Modell said. "The direction of travel is toward escalation." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.