美联储每隔一两个月就会更新一次利率政策。但投资者对央行下一步行动的预期可能在不到一天内发生变化。本周就是一个很好的例子。进入周二时，投资者预计10月加息的概率为70%。
The Fed gives an update on interest rates every month or two. But what investors think the central bank will do next can shift in less than a day. This week is a great example. Heading into Tuesday, investors were pricing in a 70% chance of an October rate hike.
但随后，在下午，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯暗示，央行可能会等到12月。概率骤降。
But then, in the afternoon, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the bank could wait until December. The probability plummeted.
快进到周三上午，美联储偏爱的核心通胀指标低于预期，削弱了立即加息的理由。到当天结束时，10月行动的可能性已降至37%。整个事件大约持续了18个小时。
Fast forward to Wednesday morning, when the Fed's preferred core inflation measure came in cooler than expected, denting the case for an immediate rate hike. By the end of the day, odds of an October move had fallen to 37%. The entire episode played out over roughly 18 hours.
仿佛投资者的预期本周还没有被反复折腾够，明天还将发布九月就业报告。随着加息概率如此剧烈地波动，交易者应预期的剧本已被改写。
As if investor expectations hadn't been whiplashed enough this week, we have the September jobs report coming tomorrow. With rate-hike odds shifting so dramatically, the script for what traders should expect has been rewritten.
让我们梳理一些情景，以及每种情景下最可能的市场反应：但有一个问题。
Let's walk through some scenarios, and the most likely market reaction to each: But there's a catch.
这些结果都不一定能解决债券市场最大的问题——一个超越美联储下一步行动的问题：长期收益率高企，已处于数十年高位。这些利率影响着抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款等。长期国债投资者不仅仅关注美联储是在10月还是12月加息。
None of these outcomes necessarily solves the bond market's biggest problem — one that transcends the Fed's next move: elevated long-term yields, which are already at multi-decade highs. These are the rates that impact things like mortgages, credit cards, and car loans. Long-term Treasury investors aren't simply focused on whether the Fed hikes in October or December.
他们正在权衡华盛顿庞大的赤字和不断增长的政府债务供应，以及通胀持续高企的风险。
They're weighing Washington's enormous deficits and the growing supply of government debt, along with the risk that inflation stays stubbornly high.
再加上债务推动的人工智能建设，投资者要求获得可观的补偿才愿意将资金锁定数十年。美联储无法解决这个问题——当然不是靠四周后的一次会议。
Throw in the debt-fueled AI buildout, and investors are demanding serious compensation to tie up their money for the next few decades. The Fed isn't going to be able to fix that — certainly not with one meeting that's still four weeks away.
如果政策制定者跳过10月加息，而长期收益率仍拒绝下降，别说没人警告过你。
If policymakers skip an October hike and long-term yields still refuse to come down, don't say you weren't warned.