自称为“埃塞俄比亚人民生存力量联盟”的这个异质同盟由七个反对总理阿比·艾哈迈德联邦政府的国内武装派别组成。
The heterogeneous alliance that calls itself the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival" brings together seven armed domestic groups that oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.
然而，埃塞俄比亚国防军（ENDF）描绘的却是一个远超埃塞俄比亚国界的同盟：其总司令伯努·朱拉（Birhanu Jula）元帅指责厄立特里亚、苏丹和埃及支持提人阵（TPLF）。
However, the ENDF has painted a picture of an alliance that extends far beyond Ethiopia's borders: Its commander-in-chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the TPLF.
苏丹驳斥这一指控“毫无根据”。其军政府反戈一击，指责埃塞俄比亚支持已与苏丹军队交战三年多的“快速支援部队”（RSF）民兵组织。
Sudan dismissed the allegation as "baseless." Its military government countered with accusations that Ethiopia was supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia that has been fighting Sudan's army for over three years.
厄立特里亚表示，埃塞俄比亚企图将自身内部冲突的责任转嫁给邻国。与此同时，开罗方面予以坚决否认。
Eritrea said Ethiopia was attempting to shift responsibility for its own internal conflicts onto its neighbors. Cairo, meanwhile, issued a flat denial.
德国弗里德里希·艾伯特基金会埃塞俄比亚办公室负责人苏珊娜·施托尔赖特（Susanne Stollreiter）表示：“虽然这主要是一场国内冲突，但由于许多直接或间接卷入的外部行为者，它无疑具有外交政策层面的维度。”
"While it is primarily a domestic conflict, it certainly has a foreign policy dimension due to the many external actors directly or indirectly involved," said Susanne Stollreiter, the head of the Ethiopia office of the Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
施托尔赖特对德国之声（DW）表示，这些行为者在该地区拥有各自的利益——这些利益可能会因这场冲突而得到推进。
Stollreiter told DW that these actors have their own interests in the region — interests that could potentially be advanced by the conflict.
“如果这场冲突升级，考虑到这里非洲之角各种冲突的动态，我甚至认为它真的可能引发某种地区性的大火。” 映衬出埃塞俄比亚与苏丹之间的同盟关系 埃及和苏丹长期以来对埃塞俄比亚抱有不满，因为作为青尼罗河发源国的埃塞俄比亚在临近边界处对该河进行了筑坝截流。
"If this conflict escalates, I would even assume that it could truly lead to a kind of conflagration across the region, given the various conflict dynamics here in the Horn of Africa." Mirroring alliances between Ethiopia and Sudan Egypt and Sudan have long harbored grievances against Ethiopia because the source country of the Blue Nile dammed the river just before the border.
为什么埃塞俄比亚的大型水坝会引发与埃及的紧张关系 自2023年4月以来，苏丹一直陷入残酷的内战之中。冲突双方——苏丹武装部队（SAF）与“快速支援部队”民兵组织——据信都与目前在埃塞俄比亚交战双方中站在对立面的伙伴有着联系。
Why Ethiopia's mega dam is causing tensions with Egypt Sudan has been caught up in a brutal civil war since April 2023. Both sides to the conflict — the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF militia — are believed to have ties to partners that are now fighting on opposing sides in Ethiopia.
另一方则是苏丹政府和提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF），后者在2020年至2022年的埃塞俄比亚提格雷战争中基本被击败。许多提格雷战士流亡苏丹，组建了“第70军”，并与苏丹武装部队（SAF）并肩作战，对抗快速支援部队（RSF）。
e hand there's the Sudanese government and the TPLF, which was largely defeated in the 2020–22 Tigray War in Ethiopia. Many Tigrayan fighters went into exile in Sudan where they organized as "Army 70" and fought alongside the SAF against the RSF.
“他们在苏丹武装部队将快速支援部队推回东苏丹，甚至推进至喀土穆的过程中，发挥了相当重要的作用。此后这种关系得以延续，”智库国际危机组织（ICG）之角非洲项目副经理马格努斯·泰勒表示。
"They played quite an important role in the Sudan Armed Forces pushing back against the RSF in eastern Sudan and even into Khartoum. And then that relationship continued," said Magnus Taylor, Deputy Project Manager, Horn of Africa at the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG).
“联邦政府面临的问题是，苏丹似乎与该国最强大的反对派团体之一结成了某种共识或同盟。”苏丹境内的提格雷战士与埃塞俄比亚境内的苏丹民兵训练营 5月，苏丹政府接待了提格雷人民解放阵线的高级代表以及其他批评阿比总理的埃塞俄比亚团体领导人。其中一些团体现已成为新成立的七方联盟成员。
"The issue that the federal government of Ethiopia has is that it appears that Sudan is in a kind of alignment or an alliance with one of the strongest opposition groups in the country." Tigrayan fighters in Sudan and training camp for Sudan militia in Ethiopia In May, the Sudanese government hosted high-ranking representatives of the TPLF and leaders of other Ethiopian groups that are critical of Abiy. Some of those groups are now part of the new seven-member alliance.
另一方面，则是埃塞俄比亚中央政府和苏丹前特种部队——快速支援部队。
On the other hand, there's the Ethiopia's central government and the former Sudanese special unit, the RSF.
2月，路透社报道了位于埃塞俄比亚边境地区贝尼尚古勒-古穆兹的一个快速支援部队战士秘密训练营。据报道，阿拉伯联合酋长国提供了教官、资金和后勤支持——阿联酋对此予以否认。
In February, the news agency Reuters reported on a secret training camp for RSF fighters in the Ethiopian border region of Benishangul-Gumuz. According to the report, the United Arab Emirates provided instructors, funding, and logistical support — claims the UAE denied.
阿联酋与埃塞俄比亚关系密切，尽管予以否认，但被视为快速支援部队最重要的支持者。厄立特里亚卷入最新冲突了吗？
The UAE is closely allied with Ethiopia and, despite denials, is considered the RSF's most important backer. Is Eritrea involved in the latest conflict?
目前没有迹象表明苏丹武装部队或快速支援部队直接卷入埃塞俄比亚冲突。也没有证据显示厄立特里亚在最新升级中扮演了角色。但各种狂野的猜测层出不穷。
So far, there are no signs of direct involvement by the Sudanese army or the RSF in the conflict in Ethiopia. There is no evidence of Eritrea's role in the latest escalation either. But there's no shortage of wild speculation.
厄立特里亚曾在提格雷战争中与阿比的部队并肩作战，但到2022年11月签署比勒陀利亚和平协议时，两国领导人已发生决裂。埃塞俄比亚破裂的提格雷和平协议唤醒了旧日创伤专家长期以来一直暗示，厄立特里亚尽管予以否认，但现在仍在支持提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）。鉴于阿比曾公开表示要为埃塞俄比亚争取开海权（必要时不惜诉诸武力，例如夺取红海上的厄立特里亚港口阿萨布），各方对阿比的的不信任根深蒂固。
Eritrea fought alongside Abiy's forces in the Tigray War but the leaders of the two countries had had a falling out by the time the Pretoria peace agreement was signed in November 2022. Ethiopia's broken Tigray peace deal opens old wounds Experts have long suggested that Eritrea — despite denials — is now supporting the TPLF. Distrust of Abiy runs deep, given his stated ambitions to secure Ethiopia access to the open sea — by force if necessary, such as by seizing the Eritrean port of Assab on the Red Sea.
国际危机组织（ICG）分析师马格努斯·泰勒（Magnus Taylor）对德国之声表示，厄立特里亚卷入最新战斗是完全有可能的。
ICG analyst Magnus Taylor told DW that Eritrean involvement in the latest fighting is plausible.
泰勒说：“我认为厄立特里亚人利用了TPLF和其他反对派团体，来遏制他们所感受到的来自埃塞俄比亚侵略的风险，无论是为了获取港口权限还是出于其他原因。”
"I think the Eritreans have used the TPLF and other opposition groups to deter the perceived risk of Ethiopian aggression, whether that's for access to the port or other reasons," Taylor said.
“在提格雷内部甚至阿法尔内部保持大量的实质性存在，我想这会成为埃塞俄比亚对厄立特里亚进行更大规模军事行动的借口。厄立特里亚的策略是遏制军事行动，而不是招致军事行动。”阿斯马拉今年加强了与开罗的关系，而美国刚刚让针对厄立特里亚的制裁失效。为什么埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚不能成为朋友？非洲之角是否存在爆发更大规模地区冲突的风险？
"Having a large physical presence within Tigray or within Afar even would be, I guess, a justification for the Ethiopians to carry out more extensive military operations on Eritrea. The Eritrean tactic is to deter military action, not to invite it." Asmara has strengthened relations with Cairo this year, and the United States has just let sanctions against Eritrea expire. Why can't Ethiopia and Eritrea be friends? Is there a risk of a wider regional conflict in the Horn of Africa?
非洲之角北部与海湾地区接壤，该地区因伊朗战争而失去了稳定性。也门受伊朗支持的胡塞武装也在扰乱曼德海峡。
The Horn of Africa borders the Gulf region in the north, which has lost stability due to the Iran war. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels are also disrupting the Bab al-Mandab Strait. .
在索马里，青年党正在收复失地，尽管存在巨大的意识形态差异，他们仍在与胡塞武装合作。
In Somalia, Al-Shabab is regaining ground, cooperating with the Houthis despite wide ideological differences.
德国弗里德里希·艾伯特基金会埃塞俄比亚办事处主任施托尔赖特（Stollreiter）表示：“这些是正在被争夺和交战的重要贸易路线，每个人都试图从动荡的局势中获利。”
"These are important trade routes that are being disputed and fought over and everyone is trying to profit from the unstable situation," Stollreiter, the head of the Ethiopia office of the Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, said.
“从这个意义上说，如此多的行为者现在变得异常强大，并非真正的巧合，这也是因为该地区原本的其他保护国缺位。”施托尔赖特说，尤其是美国，以及被俄罗斯对乌克兰战争牵扯精力的欧洲人，对非洲之角的关注度比以前有所下降。海湾国家是否在埃塞俄比亚选边站队？
"In this respect, it is no real coincidence that so many actors are now becoming particularly strong again, also because of the absence of the actors who were otherwise protective powers in the region." The US in particular, but also the Europeans tied down by Russia's war in Ukraine, have less of an eye on the Horn of Africa than before, Stollreiter said. Have Gulf powers taken sides in Ethiopia?
阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯被指控分别支持苏丹和也门冲突中的不同派系。近年来，两国加剧了整个地区的对立，其影响力也愈发显著。为什么阿联酋在苏丹所扮演的角色却鲜少受到审视？
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are accused of supporting different warring parties in Sudan and Yemen, and have polarized the entire region in recent years, are all the more present. Why has the UAE escaped scrutiny over its role in Sudan?
然而，国际危机组织（ICG）的马格努斯·泰勒并不认为，埃塞俄比亚局势有升级为海湾国家代理人战争的风险。
However, ICG's Magnus Taylor does not think that the situation in Ethiopia is at risk of escalating into a proxy war between the Gulf powers.
“尽管阿联酋是亚的斯亚贝巴的坚定支持者，但沙特并未大力支持提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）或任何其他反对派团体。”无论是从阿拉伯半岛、苏丹还是厄立特里亚方面来看——埃塞俄比亚战争爆发一周后，并无明确迹象表明这场内部冲突正在走向国际化。然而，在动荡不宁的非洲之角，这一风险尤其高。重塑提格雷冲突格局的新反叛联盟
"While the UAE is a strong backer of Addis Ababa, the Saudis are not strongly backing the TPLF or any other opposition group." Whether from the Arabian Peninsula, Sudan, or Eritrea — one week after the outbreak of war in Ethiopia, there are no clear signs that the internal conflict is becoming internationalized. However, in the unstable Horn of Africa, that risk is particularly high. The new rebel alliance transforming the Tigray conflict