华盛顿——美国的通胀数据导致金融市场不再预期美联储会在本月再次加息。
WASHINGTON -- U.S. inflation data has caused financial markets to veer away from anticipating another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.
推动这一变化的是周三发布的最新个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数。8月份，该指数同比上涨了3.4%；而剔除食品和能源因素后的核心指数（美联储密切关注该指数以判断通胀趋势）同比上涨了3%。
Spurring the shift is the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that was released Wednesday. The overall index rose 3.4% on the year in August. The core index that excludes food and energy, the gauge the Fed watches closely to determine inflation trends, climbed 3% from a year earlier.
然而，真正引起市场关注的是7月份PCE指数的修正数据：7月份的总体增长率仍为3.4%，但核心指数仅上涨了3%。这两个数据都比之前的预测值下调了0.3个百分点。
What caught market watchers' attention, however, were adjustments for July's PCE index. Overall growth stood at 3.4% for that month while the core index rose 3%. Both represent downward revisions of 0.3 percentage point from previous estimates.
这些结果表明，当前的通胀压力并不像之前预期的那么严重，尽管通胀率仍高于美联储设定的2%目标。
The results indicate recent inflationary pressures are not as significant as previously anticipated, although inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
负责发布PCE指数的美国商务部调整了其估算计算机软件、法律服务及投资组合管理相关价格的方法论。这些调整也更新了历史数据，且下调幅度自今年春季以来持续扩大。美联储在9月的政策会议上将利率上调了25个基点，这是三年多来的首次加息。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的大多数政策制定者预计，到年底前美联储还会至少再加息0.25个百分点。
The Commerce Department, which publishes the PCE, adjusted the methodology for how it estimates prices for computer software, legal services and portfolio management. The changes also updated historical data, and the downward revisions widened from spring of this year The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points during September's policy meeting, marking the first rate hike in over three years. The majority of policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) anticipated at least one more quarter-point hike by the end of the year.
此前，市场参与者普遍预计美联储会在10月28日结束的下次政策会议上加息。但随着PCE数据的公布，这些预期发生了变化。
Market players had subsequently priced in a likely rate hike in the next two-day Fed meeting, scheduled to end Oct. 28. But with the release of the PCE data, those outlooks have been upended.
根据FedWatch（一个基于收益率变动来预测美国货币政策的工具）的预测，截至周三晚些时候，市场认为美联储在10月加息的概率为40%；这一概率较周一时的70%有所下降，油价下跌有助于缓解市场对通胀的担忧。
According to FedWatch, a tool that predicts U.S. monetary policies based on yield movements, the market saw a 40% chance that the Fed would hike rates in October as of late Wednesday. This is down from 70% on Monday, with declining oil prices contributing to easing inflation concerns.
联邦公开市场委员会（FMOC）还计划召开为期两天的会议，直至12月9日。周一市场认为，美联储在12月前连续三次加息的概率接近60%，但截至周三，这一数字已降至约30%。
The FMOC is also scheduled to meet for two days through Dec. 9. The market assumed a nearly 60% likelihood that the Fed would hike rates three consecutive times through December as of Monday, but the figure has dropped to around 30% as of Wednesday.
另有更多指标显示美国经济具有韧性。周三，私营就业服务公司ADP发布数据，显示9月私营部门就业人数增加了9万个岗位。
There are additional indicators showing the U.S. economy is resilient. On Wednesday, private employment services company ADP released data showing that private-sector employment grew by 90,000 jobs in September.
ADP公布的数据高于市场预期，就业增长率也有所加快。但市场并未将这一数据视为制定货币政策展望的重要因素。
ADP's figure is higher than market expectations, and the rate of job growth accelerated. But the market does not consider the data a significant factor in formulating outlooks for monetary policy.
美联储下一次会议将在美国中期选举前夕举行。摩根士丹利预计，PCE数据的下修将减轻美联储在届时加息的压力。
The next Fed meeting will take place just before the U.S. midterm election. Morgan Stanley expects the downward revisions to the PCE data will ease pressure on the Fed to raise rates during that juncture.