当美国和以色列在二月份攻击伊朗时，油价暂时飙升是意料之中的事。
When the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, a temporary surge in oil prices was a given.
七个月后，国际原油价格约为每桶100美元，油轮仍在霍尔木兹海峡徘徊，司机们似乎已经接受了在可预见的未来每加仑汽油要支付5美元的现实。但他们其实不必如此：石油市场的重大崩盘即将来临。
Seven months on, with the international price for a barrel of crude around $100 and tankers still cowering in the Strait of Hormuz, drivers seem resigned to paying $5 for a gallon of gas for the foreseeable future. They needn’t be: Oil’s big bust is coming.
价格暴跌已经在酝酿之中，而这种暴跌对特朗普总统在中期选举前的处境并无好处。石油市场的衰退起初是缓慢的，随后会迅速加剧。
The stage is set for a price crash, and not the kind that would benefit President Trump before the midterm elections. Oil busts happen first in drips, then in blowouts.
三月份，在休斯顿举行的石油行业年会上，高管们庆祝特朗普政府如何简化了他们的运营流程——原本需要数年才能获得的监管批准现在只需几天就能完成。
In March, at the oil industry’s annual jamboree in Houston, executives celebrated how the Trump administration had simplified their lives. Regulatory approvals that used to take years were being waved through in days.
勘探和生产活动如火如荼，战争引发的油价飙升让利润大幅增加，石油交易员们从中获利颇丰。
Exploration and production were booming, and the surge in prices from the war was already plumping profits. Oil traders were feasting on the volatility.
然而，一些经验丰富的人回忆起更黑暗的往事：1986年初，沙特阿拉伯决定向市场大量抛售石油以惩罚违反生产配额的欧佩克成员国，导致油价从每桶约30美元跌至10美元。
Older heads, however, recalled a darker time. In early 1986, oil prices fell from roughly $30 a barrel to $10 after Saudi Arabia decided to flood the market to punish OPEC members who were flouting production limits.
美国经济的衰退加上全球油价的下跌，使休斯顿陷入了类似大萧条的困境。
The combination of a U.S. slump and the fall in global oil prices took Houston into its own version of the Great Depression.
当铺里堆满了毛皮和劳力士手表，却不得不拒绝接收新的抵押品；夜晚的阳光直射在空荡的摩天大楼上。
Pawnshops, bursting with furs and Rolexes, had to turn away consigners. In the evening, the sunlight shone through empty skyscrapers, unfiltered by people or furniture.
前德克萨斯州州长约翰·康纳利申请破产，并在拍卖会上出售了自己的财产。这种心理冲击深远而持久。
The former Texas governor John Connally filed for bankruptcy and sold his possessions at auction. The psychological effects were deep and lasting.
如果伊朗战争结束，航运在霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常，类似的情况将会再次发生：油价将回落，最初可能回到一月份的水平，即每桶60到70美元左右。
Something similar will happen if the Iran war ends and shipping resumes freely through the strait. Oil prices will retreat, initially to where they were in January, around $60 to $70 per barrel.