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美联储的长期利率难题The Fed's long-term interest rate problem

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堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰夫·施密德(Jeff Schmid)周四对Axios表示,长期利率的持续攀升开始对经济的更多领域产生影响。

The relentless rise in long-term interest rates is starting to have effects on more parts of the economy, Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid told Axios Thursday.

他指出,在多户住宅和商业贷款等长期信贷使用者中,“你开始看到一些摩擦”。

"You're starting to see some friction in some of the long-market users of credit," he said, pointing to multifamily housing and commercial lending.

施密德在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔由里士满联邦储备银行主办的关于投资美国农村的会议上说:“甚至在抵押贷款利率方面,它也开始影响房价,这就是信贷价格相对于估值的作用方式。”

"Even on the mortgage rate side, it's starting to affect home prices, which is how the price of credit works relative to valuation," Schmid said at a conference on investing in rural America hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in Asheville, N.C.

背景:施密德与里士满联储行长汤姆·巴尔金(Tom Barkin)和波士顿联储行长苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)共同发言,他们就推动借贷成本上升的力量发表了看法。

The big picture: Schmid spoke alongside Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and Boston Fed president Susan Collins, who weighed in on the forces driving the rise in borrowing costs.

巴尔金补充说:“我认为你正在看到这万亿美元的AI基础设施建设,如果你有更多的需求在那里,利率上升也就不足为奇了。”

"I think you're seeing this trillion-dollar AI buildout, and I think it's not surprising that rates go up if you've got a lot more demand out there," Barkin added.

v柯林斯表示,人工智能投资还有助于推动持续的强劲经济增长,尽管借贷成本上升,这种增长仍在继续。

Collins said AI investment is also helping drive the solid economic growth that has persisted despite higher borrowing costs.

柯林斯说:“我认为它确实产生了更广泛的影响,不仅仅是在特定的行业。”但她补充说,投资是否会以当前的速度继续下去“还有待观察”。

"I think it does have broader effects, not just in particular sectors," Collins said. But it "remains to be seen" whether investment will continue at its current pace, she added.

趣闻:施密德将美联储将强劲需求与供应驱动的通货膨胀区分开来的挑战比作七层蘸酱(seven-layer dip)——这是他最喜欢的食物之一。

The intrigue: Schmid likened the Fed's challenge of separating strong demand from supply-driven inflation to a seven-layer dip — one of his favorite foods.

施密德说:“七层蘸酱的美妙之处在于你有等量的豆子和酸奶油。”他补充说,目前由于人工智能和数据中心,“蘸酱里的豆子太多了”。

"The beauty of a seven-layer dip is you have equal amounts of beans and sour cream," Schmid said. Right now, with AI and data centers, "there's too much beans in that dip," he added.