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焦点 油气流经霍尔木兹海峡的流量正在增加，越来越多的船只安全通过该海峡，油价似乎也在回落——至少目前如此。高盛周三撰文称，波斯湾出口在9月翻番后，“已恢复至2025年的平均水平”。该机构预计，到今年年底，布伦特原油价格将“缓和”至每桶85美元。这对石油来说是个好消息，对美国和中国来说或许也是个好消息。
POWER POINT Oil flows through Hormuz are rising, more ships are safely getting through the Strait, and oil prices seem to be coming down — at least for now. Goldman Sachs wrote Wednesday that Persian Gulf exports have "recovered to their 2025 average after doubling in September." The firm expects Brent crude prices to "moderate" to $85 per barrel by year's end. That's good news on oil, and maybe good news for both the United States and China.
不太好的消息涉及天然气和欧洲。尽管伊朗周边的局势和石油供应有所改善，但对于我们在德国和欧洲大部分地区的朋友来说，这仍然可能是一个漫长而昂贵的冬天。
The not-so-good news involves natural gas and Europe. Despite the improvement around Iran and oil, it could still be a long, expensive winter for our friends in Germany and much of Europe.
五年来，我一直在强调该大陆面临的一些重大能源挑战：越来越多英国家庭不得不在取暖和吃饭之间做出选择——也就是所谓的“能源贫困”；不断上升的电力成本如何损害工业企业；以及美国液化天然气如何成为一种“能源马歇尔计划”，帮助确保欧洲各地灯火通明。
For five years, I've been highlighting a few of the continent's major energy challenges: how more and more U.K. families have had to choose between heating and eating — aka "energy poverty"; how rising electricity costs are hurting industrial companies; and how American liquefied natural gas has become a type of "Marshall Plan for energy," helping make sure the lights can stay on across Europe.
我在报道中强调的一个重大担忧是，欧洲部分地区在一年中的某些时候可能会面临严重的天然气短缺。谢万于此，这些担忧被证明是错误的。最糟糕的情况并没有发生，这主要归功于天气。欧洲大部分地区多年来一直享受着相当温和的天气：既不太热，也不太冷。这使得各国能够保存宝贵的天然气储量。好景不长。
One big worry I highlighted in my reporting was that parts of Europe might face critical natural-gas shortfalls at times during the year. Thankfully, those worries proved wrong. The worst-case scenarios did happen, largely due to the weather. Much of Europe has enjoyed a multi-year run of fairly benign weather: not too hot, not too cold. That enabled countries to preserve precious natural-gas storage. Not anymore.
今年夏天，西欧打破了2003年创下的有记录以来最热夏天的纪录。虽然欧洲大部分地区对空调的使用不如美国或其他一些国家普及，但空调确实存在，而且越来越普遍。因此，当气温攀升时，企业和消费者都想把空调开到最大。空调虽好，但耗电量巨大。随着电力需求的增加，天然气库存被消耗。
This summer, Western Europe broke the 2003 record for its hottest summer on record. And while much of the continent does not use air conditioning at the same levels as the U.S. or some other countries, cooling does exist — and it's getting more and more common. So when temperatures climb, companies and consumers want to crank it. A/C is great, but it's a huge power drain. As power demand rose, natural-gas inventories were drawn down.
瑞士联邦能源办公室将天然气库存水平与五年平均值进行对比（如需了解更多，请点击此处）。下方图表突出显示，欧盟的库存水平降至这五年来的最低点。
The Swiss Federal Office of Energy tracks natural-gas storage levels against the five-year average (for more, click here ). The chart below highlights that the European Union's storage level is at its lowest point in those five years.
正如这里所见，德国的处境略好一些——不，应该说略糟一些。未列入图表的法国情况同样如此。
As you can see HERE, Germany is in slightly worse shape. France, not shown, is as well.
尽管库存水平下降、价格上涨，欧洲领导人似乎仍不以为意。一个代表该联盟的组织写道，尽管“库存水平低于历史水平，但欧盟委员会和欧盟各国再次确认，欧盟的天然气供应仍保持稳定。”关于这一点，我有两点补充：第一，天然气库存之所以仍能保持“稳定”，全靠美国的出口。美国企业正在帮助欧洲避免更为严峻的能源危机。
Despite lower storage levels and higher prices, European leaders remain seemingly unbothered. A group representing the coalition writes that, despite "lower storage levels compared to historical levels, the Commission and EU countries reconfirmed that EU gas supply remains stable." I have two things to add here: One: Natural-gas storage remains "stable" only because of American exports. U.S. companies are saving Europe from an even more dire energy scenario.
这绝非夸张。在得克萨斯州、路易斯安那州及其他港口被液化并装船运出的天然气，是欧洲拥有“稳定”供应与勉强满足需求之间的区别。卡塔尔天然气设施遭到破坏后，欧洲对来自美国以及——等着瞧吧——俄罗斯的液化天然气的依赖程度进一步上升。
This is not hyperbole. The natural gas liquefied and loaded onto ships in Texas, Louisiana, and other ports is the difference between Europe having "stable" supplies and Europe struggling to meet demand. The sabotage of Qatari gas has made Europe even more reliant on LNG from the U.S. and — wait for it — Russia.
令人难以置信的是，欧洲仍在从俄罗斯购买价值数十亿美元的天然气，尽管是通过船舶运输，而不是通过命运多舛的“北溪”管道。我的制片人哈丽雅特·泰勒和我都难以置信地看着一船船装有普京天然气的货轮驶入鹿特丹港。许多人为 Nord Stream 被炸后莫斯科无法从欧洲的能源需求中获利。再想想吧。
It's hard to believe, but Europe is still buying billions of dollars' worth of natural gas from Russia, albeit via ships and not the ill-fated Nord Stream pipeline. My producer Harriet Taylor and I stood incredulously and watched cargoes of Putin's gas steam into the Port of Rotterdam. Many believe because Nord Stream was blown up that Moscow isn't making any money off Europe's energy needs. Think again.
欧洲领导人仍声称，将在1月1日前停止进口俄罗斯液化天然气，并在明年年底前终止所有购买俄罗斯天然气的合同。恕我对此深表怀疑。考虑到人们在没有电或暖气的往往会愤怒，我敢说，在这些令人心情愉快的头条新闻之后很久，俄罗斯仍会向欧洲出售大量天然气。事实将证明一切。
European leaders still argue they will cut out Russian LNG by January 1 and end all contracts to buy Russian gas by late next year. Color me skeptical. Given that people tend to get angry when they don't have electricity or heat, I would venture to say that Russia will be selling plenty of gas into Europe well beyond these feel-good headlines. Time will tell.
第二点：问题不仅在于供应，还在于运输。在交易所，欧洲天然气10月期货的价格是2月份价格的两倍多。虽然许多电力公司已经锁定采购成本，但任何需要在公开市场购买天然气的人都将面临气价上涨和液化天然气运费上涨的双重打击。对于现货货物，欧洲不得不与亚洲买家竞争，双方都准备不惜一切代价支付所需费用，以保证今年冬天的照明和取暖。
Two: It's not just about supply; it's also about . On the exchange, prices for October futures on European-traded natural gas are more than double those for February. While many power companies have already locked in purchase costs, anyone needing to buy gas on the open market is going to face the double shock of higher gas prices higher shipping costs to get the LNG.
如果你想找点一线希望，那就是最近几天价格有所回落，这得益于人们对达成真正、持久的和平协议的期望，该协议将允许通过霍尔木兹海峡进行无风险航运。中东和平在许多层面上都是最好的结果。
For spot cargoes, Europe has to compete with buyers in Asia, with both sides ready to pay whatever they have to in order to keep the lights and heat on this winter. If you're looking for a silver lining, it's that prices have come down in recent days, buoyed by hopes of a real, longer-lasting peace deal that allows for risk-free shipping through Hormuz.
除此之外，如果欧洲能再次迎来一个相对温和的冬天，减少对供暖和天然气需求，那也将非常有帮助。这将使库存维持在充足水平，并使电力公司和各国能够为新一年的天然气库存补充工作开个好头。
Peace in the Middle East would be the best outcome on many levels.
大部分液化天然气供应将来自美国。我们的天然气产量超过了出口能力。如果你想围绕这个主题进行投资，两个显而易见的名字是出口商切尼尔能源（Cheniere Energy，代码LNG）和Venture Global（代码VG）。不太明显的是：美国液化天然气产能最大的持有者总部位于法国和英国。他们是道达尔能源（TotalEnergies，代码TTE）和壳牌（Shell，代码SHEL）。
Beyond that, it would also be hugely helpful if Europe had another relatively mild winter, reducing demand for heat and natural gas. This would keep storage levels sufficient and allow power companies and countries to get a better head start on refilling natural-gas storage for year. Much of that LNG supply is going to come from the United States. We have more natural gas than we can export.
道达尔能源首席执行官帕特里克·普扬内（Patrick Pouyanné）——可以说是全球石油和天然气行业最重要的首席执行官——本周在“Power Insider”访谈中与我们探讨了欧洲的能源挑战、价格等问题。感谢您的阅读和观看，布莱恩。内部人士行动说到道达尔能源，现在是买入该股票的时候了——英国石油（BP）也是如此。汇丰银行的团队如是说。
If you're looking to invest around this theme, two obvious names are exporters Cheniere Energy (LNG) Venture Global (VG) Less obvious: the biggest holders of U.S. LNG capacity are based in France and the U.K. They are TotalEnergies (TTE) Shell (SHEL) TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné — arguably most important CEO in global oil and gas — spoke with us this week about Europe's energy challenges, prices, and more in a Power Insider interview Thanks for reading and watching, Brian ACTIONABLE INSIDER Speaking of TotalEnergies, it's time to buy that stock — and BP, too. So says the team at HSBC.
汇丰银行将英国石油公司（BP）和道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）的评级均上调至“买入”。天然气价格上涨是此次评级调整的重要因素之一。该行将今年剩余时间及明年的欧洲天然气价格预测（即上文所示数据）分别上调了34%和40%，同时略微上调了2028年的展望。分析师金·富斯蒂尔（Kim Fustier）还认为，这两家公司的石油及炼油利润率前景将迎来“大幅上调”，且两家公司均具备强大的现金生成能力和股票回购计划。
HSBC is upgrading both and TotalEnergies to buy. Higher natural gas prices play a part in the call. The firm raised its TTM European natural gas price forecast — what we showed you above — by 34% for the rest of this year and 40% for next year, while also slightly raising its 2028 outlook. Analyst Kim Fustier also sees "substantial upgrades" across both firms' oil and refining-margin outlooks, as well as huge cash generation and stock buybacks.
英国石油公司和道达尔能源并非该行唯一看好的能源股。该行维持对西班牙雷普索尔（Repsol，代码：REP-DE）和雪佛龙（Chevron，代码：CVX）的“买入”评级。富斯蒂尔预计，其给予“买入”评级的股票约有20%的上涨空间。
BP and TotalEnergies are not the only energy stocks the firm loves. It maintains its buy ratings on Spain's Repsol (REP-DE) Chevron (CVX) Fustier sees about 20% upside for her Buy-rated stocks. I think it's a fascinating call, in part because Fustier acknowledges that the situation around Hormuz may not improve rapidly anytime soon.
我认为这是一个颇具吸引力的判断，部分原因在于富斯蒂尔承认，霍尔木兹海峡周边的局势短期内可能不会迅速改善。汇丰银行的基本假设是，该地区局势容易出现“反复恶化”和“持续的不确定性”，不过该行预计航运量将继续改善。近期，看好英国石油公司的机构并非只有汇丰银行。
HSBC's base case is that the situation is prone to "repeated breakdowns" and "continued uncertainty," though it does see shipping volumes continuing to improve. HSBC isn't the only firm getting hotter on BP these days.
摩根大通（JPMorgan）也刚刚将英国石油公司的评级上调至“增持”。在该行题为《救赎之路》的报告中指出，回归“简化的价值”和“长期增长的复苏”对英国石油公司的投资者而言是利好消息。尽管该行指出，英国石油公司近期历史曾受运营和战略问题的困扰，但其认为在新任首席执行官梅格·奥尼尔（Meg O'Neill）的领导下，公司正步入正轨。
JPMorgan also just upgraded BP to overweight. In a note titled "Road to Redemption," the firm says a return to the "value of simplification" and "renewed long-term growth" look good for BP investors. While the firm notes that BP's recent history has been beset by operational and strategic issues, it sees the company getting things right under new-ish CEO Meg O'Neill.
我同意，未来12至24个月内，英国石油公司值得密切关注。该公司曾艰难地偏离其核心能力——石油和天然气业务。这家曾名为“英国石油”的公司甚至曾尝试进行不成功的品牌重塑，试图以“超越石油”（beyond petroleum）的形象示人，但这一举措并未持续太久。尽管该公司目前仍是太阳能和电池技术领域的参与者，并拥有风力发电合资企业，但它正重新聚焦于最初使其成为全球最大企业之一的核心业务。
I agree that BP is a company to watch closely over the next 12-24 months. The company made a hard pivot away from its core competency - oil and gas. The company once known as British Petroleum even went so far as to make an ill-fated rebranding effort to be known as "beyond petroleum." That didn't last long. While the company remains a player in solar and battery technologies and has a joint venture in wind power, it is refocusing back on what originally made it one of the world's biggest companies.
BP 的投资者也极度渴望领导层的连贯性，并本应从新任首席执行官梅格·奥尼尔（Meg O'Neill）身上找到这一点。奥尼尔是一位极其聪明的行业老兵。她从伍德赛德石油公司（Woodside Petroleum）加入 BP，在此之前曾担任埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）的首席财务官。她了解这个行业，也知道如何在规模上进行全球竞争。任何 BP 投资者都应该提出的重大问题是：我的看法是并非如此，但 BP 必须迅速行动。石油本身可能需要亿万年才能形成，但这个行业从未停歇。奥尼尔需要加足马力。
BP investors are also desperate for some consistency in leadership, and should have found that in new-ish CEO Meg O'Neill. O'Neill is a super smart veteran of the industry. She came to BP from Woodside Petroleum and before that was the CFO of ExxonMobil. She knows the industry and how to compete on a global scale. The big question any BP investor should be asking is: My take is that it is not, but BP will have to act fast. Oil itself may take eons to create but the industry never stops. O'Neill needs her foot on the gas pedal.
看点 本周的访谈对象是能源高管大卫·克兰（David Crane）。他目前担任 Generate Capital 的首席执行官，此前曾担任 NRG 的首席执行官以及拜登白宫的能源官员。很高兴能与大卫坐下来，就电力、能源、核能以及他为什么认为股市在某些能源相关股票上犯了错误进行深入交流。
TAKE A LOOK This week's is a conversation with energy executive David Crane. He's currently the CEO of Generate Capital, and previously served as CEO of NRG and as an energy official in the Biden White House. It was great to sit down with David for a longer conversation about power, energy, nuclear, and why he believes the stock market is making a mistake with some energy-related names.
内幕消息 本周的访谈对象是 TerraFlow Energy 首席执行官乔恩·帕雷拉（Jon Parrella）。TerraFlow 正在构建电池和储能技术，并且刚刚签署了一项关于数据中心的协议。
INSIDE LINE This week's is with TerraFlow Energy CEO Jon Parrella. TerraFlow is building out battery and storage technologies and just signed an agreement around data centers.
随机但有趣 当能源界与 NBA 篮球联手时，你就知道事情开始火热了！这正是刚刚发生的事情，Bloom Energy 达成了一项多年协议，将将其名字印在费城 76 人队的球衣上。随着超级巨星勒布朗·詹姆斯今年来到费城，我们将拭目以待这笔交易是否会成为一记……漂亮的扣篮。
RANDOM, BUT INTERESTING You know things are getting hot when the world of energy partners up with NBA basketball! That's exactly what just happened as Bloom Energy strikes a multiyear deal to place its name on the Philadelphia 76ers' jersey. With the arrival of superstar LeBron James to Philly this year, we'll see if this deal is a… slam dunk.
俄罗斯对乌克兰能源电网发动大规模打击，迫使冬季来临前实施停电韩国总统李在明在特朗普宣扬首尔参与阿拉斯加液化天然气项目后予以回击经霍尔木兹海峡的原油出口已恢复至战前水平，但燃料运输仍受限制美国要求法国和德国释放柴油库存，否则将面临美国出口禁令获取更多能源资讯，包括来自CNBC和Power Insider的访谈及视频内容阅读Power Insider最新一期在Google上将CNBC信息源，不错过这家最受信赖的商业新闻媒体带来的每一刻动态。
THE GRID Russia launches massive strikes on Ukraine's energy grid, forcing power cuts ahead of winter South Korean President Lee pushes back on Alaska LNG project after Trump touts Seoul's participation Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz hit prewar levels, but fuel shipments remain constrained U.S. tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban Catch up with more on energy including interviews and video content from CNBC and Power Insider Read the last issue of Power Insider Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.