挪威斯塔万厄——马克·刘易斯预测人士说，这并非完全异想天开：今年的诺贝尔和平奖或许会“飞向太空”，颁给国际空间站。但来自地球这边的竞争者也不容忽视，包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普、加拿大总理马克·卡尼、苏丹紧急救援队伍、乌克兰儿童权益倡导者以及两大国际法院。
MARK LEWIS STAVANGER, Norway — Not-so-outlandish, prognosticators say: The Nobel Peace Prize this year could go galactic, with an award to the International Space Station. But terrestrial contenders loom too, including U.S. President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, emergency teams in Sudan, children’s advocates in Ukraine and two top international courts, experts say.
这场关于谁将获奖的年度猜测游戏正在逐渐升温。挪威诺贝尔委员会将于10月9日在奥斯陆宣布获奖者。该奖项常被誉为这个星球上最负盛名的奖项。
The annual guessing game about who will win the prize, often called the most prestigious award on the planet, is revving up ahead of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s Oct. 9 announcement of the winner in Oslo.
预测结果本质上纯属推测。多年来，委员会曾收到一些令人意外且颇具争议的候选人或机构。今年委员会共收到287份提名，其中略超过四分之一来自组织。
Predicting the outcome is inherently speculative. Some surprising and controversial choices have appeared over the years. The committee received 287 candidates for this year’s prize, and just over a quarter of them are organizations.
专家表示，委员会在评选过程中通常看重和平的持久性、国际间友好团结的促进，以及为强化这些目标而默默努力的机构。
Experts say the committee, in its process of awarding the prize, typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.
奥斯陆和平研究所所长哈康·格耶尔洛被视为最有 predicting power 的预测人士之一。他说，在多边主义正在瓦解、许多国家重新陷入狭隘民族利益之际，国际空间站——准确说，是其背后的合作组织——已成为全球携手迈向太空的罕见象征。
Haakon Gjerløw, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, is considered a top forecaster. He says the ISS — well, the organization behind it — is a rare symbol of global cooperation in a quest toward the heavens at a time when multilateralism is crumbling and many countries have retreated into narrower national interests on Earth.
该研究所的年度关注名单，是预测人士和下注者判断最有力竞争者的主要依据之一。
The institute’s annual watch list is one of the sources that most informs pundits and punters about the top contenders.
特朗普毫不掩饰自己对获奖的渴望，并再次获得提名，但在美国与以色列于2月对伊朗发动持续至今的战争后，他可能被视为一个颇具争议的人选。
Trump has made no secret of his desire to win the prize, and has been nominated again, but could be viewed as a controversial choice after the U.S., along with Israel, launched an ongoing war on Iran in February.
加拿大总理卡尼今年在国际上崭露头角，很大程度上是因为在美国关税等问题上敢于与特朗普针锋相对。
Canada’s Carney has made a mark internationally this year, in large part by standing up to Trump on issues like U.S. tariffs.
格耶尔洛夫今年的名单还包括乌克兰儿童权益倡导者米科拉·库列巴和“救助儿童会”；苏丹的“紧急响应室”，这是一个草根救援网络；以及“保护记者委员会”，因为自近45年前开始记录以来，过去两年是记者遇害人数最多的两年。
Gjerløw’s list this year also features Ukrainian children’s advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children; Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots relief network; and the Committee to Protect Journalists after the deadliest two years for reporters since record-keeping began nearly 45 years ago.
国际法院和国际刑事法院也共同获得了提名。国际刑事法院因对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡等领导人发出逮捕令，在部分人眼中备受批评和争议，而在另一些人眼中则受到尊重。
The International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, jointly, also got a nod. The ICC has faced criticism and controversy among some, and respect from others, over its arrest warrants against leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .
特朗普长期以来一直批评国际刑事法院。国务卿马可·鲁比奥在7月宣布了一项运动，旨在“拆除国际刑事法院对美国主权构成的威胁……”。同月晚些时候，国际刑事法院首席检察官因性不当行为指控被免职。
Trump has long criticized the ICC, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in July announced a campaign to “dismantle the threat … posed by the International Criminal Court to U.S. sovereignty.”Later that month, the ICC’s chief prosecutor was removed from office over sexual misconduct allegations .
格耶尔洛夫表示，由于2025年诺贝尔奖得主、委内瑞拉的玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多在美国军队推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗政权几天后，以象征性姿态将她的奖项授予特朗普，委员会的选择因此变得复杂。
Gjerløw said the committee’s choice is complicated by recent turmoil after 2025 laureate María Corina Machado of Venezuela, in a symbolic gesture, presented her prize to Trump days after U.S. forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
今年的和平奖诞生于一个以数十年来最严重的战争和冲突为标志的时代，包括苏丹、乌克兰、也门、伊朗和中东地区。
This year’s peace prize comes in an era marked by the most war and conflict in decades, including in Sudan , Ukraine , Yemen , Iran and the Middle East .
监测冲突的乌普萨拉冲突数据计划高级分析师肖恩·戴维斯指出，“国际紧张局势加剧以及全球安全秩序的变化”，他将此与美国执行国际规则的意愿减弱联系起来。他表示，华盛顿已从战后秩序的担保人变成了在某些情况下的破坏者。
Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which monitors conflicts, cited “increased international tensions and changes in the global security order” that he linked to an erosion of U.S. willingness to enforce international rules. Washington has gone from guarantor of the postwar order to a violator of it in some cases, he said.
戴维斯说：“考虑到他似乎陷入了与伊朗的‘永久战争’，我甚至认为他自己的基本盘都不会相信特朗普现在能获奖。”
“I don’t even think his own base would believe” Trump could win the prize now, “given how he’s stuck in what looks like a forever war in Iran,” Davies said.
曾与国际禁止地雷运动共同获得1997年和平奖的乔迪·威廉姆斯表示，她希望该奖更多授予女性的趋势能够延续。在该奖125年的历史中，112名个人获奖者中仅有20人是女性。过去15年，共有八名女性单独获奖，而男性仅有六人。
Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Peace Prize jointly with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, says she hopes for a continued trend toward awarding the prize to women. Only 20 of the prize’s 112 individual laureates have been women in its 125-year history. In the past 15 years, eight women have won the prize individually, compared to just six men.
今年在预测市场热门女性候选人名单中，包括加沙外科医生萨拉·萨卡和尤利娅·纳瓦尔娜娅，后者是俄罗斯反对派人士，也是阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼的遗孀。
Among names of the women circulating in prediction markets this year are Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.
诺贝尔周将于周一开始，首先公布医学奖，随后将在周二公布物理学奖、周三公布化学奖、周四公布文学奖。周五和平奖揭晓后，诺贝尔经济学奖将于10月12日公布。
Nobel week kicks off Monday with the announcement of the medicine prize, followed by the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. After Friday’s peace prize is awarded, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on Oct. 12.
今年无论获奖者是个人、小型获奖团队还是组织，奖金均为1200万瑞典克朗（约合120万美元）。至于和平奖的评选，无论谁最终获奖，预计都将引发政治余波。
The prize money this year is 12 million Swedish kronor (about $1.2 million), whether for an individual, small group of laureates or organization. When it comes to the peace prize selection, expect political fallout no matter who wins.
多伦多大学名誉教授纳尔逊·怀斯曼说：“无论谁获得诺贝尔奖，特朗普都会不高兴。如果卡尼获奖，与加拿大的关系会比现在更加紧张。”
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto professor emeritus. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”