马克·卡尼在2026年因公开反对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普而赢得了全球的关注。如果一些预测市场交易者以及他的支持者的预测属实，这位加拿大总理可能会在这一年获得诺贝尔和平奖，并被评为《时代》杂志的“年度人物”。
Mark Carney built a global profile in 2026 by standing up to US President Donald Trump. If some prediction-market traders and prominent admirers are right, the Canadian prime minister could end the year with the Nobel Peace Prize and Time magazine’s Person of the Year.
在一家总部位于美国的预测市场平台上（Kalshi），卡尼一度成为2026年诺贝尔和平奖的热门人选——该平台上交易者认为他获奖的概率为14%；不过后来这一概率下降了，这反映了这类预测活动的高度投机性。
Carney briefly became the favourite Monday for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi, a US-based prediction market, when traders on the exchange put his chances at 14 per cent. His odds later fell, illustrating the highly speculative nature of the wagering.
目前没有公开证据表明卡尼已被列入将于10月9日在挪威奥斯陆公布的诺贝尔奖候选名单中。
There is no public evidence Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist for the prize that will be announced October 9 in Oslo, Norway.
不过，关于这位加拿大领导人可能获得这一崇高奖项的讨论，恰恰反映了当前的一个重要议题：随着大国越来越多地利用经济和军事手段来侵犯他国主权，中等强国应当联合起来捍卫自身的主权。不过，我们无法确定这一观点是否能够引起诺贝尔委员会的重视。有一点是肯定的：诺贝尔奖和《时代》杂志的年度奖项正是特朗普非常渴望获得的荣誉。
But the buzz about the Canadian leader possibly winning the esteemed peace prize reflects the message that has raised his profile: Middle powers should band together to defend sovereignty as great powers increasingly use economic and military leverage. Whether that position resonates with the Nobel Committee is impossible to know. One thing is certain, though: the Nobel and Time’s annual award happen to be two honours Trump covets.
卡尼与特朗普之间的贸易争端正在不断升级：美国对价值数十亿美元的加拿大商品征收了50%的关税，而加拿大也采取了相应的报复措施。特朗普还威胁加拿大领导人必须“服从美国的意志”，否则将面临比现有关税更加严重的后果。
Carney and Trump are locked in an escalating trade war, with 50 per cent US tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods and Canadian retaliation. Trump also has told Canadian leaders to “fall in line” or face consequences “far WORSE” than existing tariffs.
特朗普曾两次被评为《时代》杂志的“年度人物”，但他多次表示自己应该获得诺贝尔奖，并在7月份称：“我比任何人都更应该获得这个奖项。”
Trump, who has twice been Time’s Person of the Year, has repeatedly complained about not receiving the Nobel, saying in July that he “should have won that award more than anybody”.
“特朗普总统肯定会勃然大怒，”蒙特利尔麦吉尔大学的政治学教授丹尼尔·贝兰德说：“如果这件事真的发生了，我真想成为‘墙上的苍蝇’，亲眼看看他得知这个消息时的表情。”事实上，特朗普确实拥有一枚诺贝尔奖奖章——只不过这枚奖章并非直接颁发给他的。
“President Trump would be furious, of course,” said Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal. “If this ever happens, I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office to see the president’s face when he learns about it.”
委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多（Maria Corina Machado）是2025年的诺贝尔奖得主，她在1月份于白宫将诺贝尔奖奖章颁给了唐纳德·特朗普。特朗普接受了奖章，但诺贝尔委员会强调该奖项仍属于她本人。
Trump already possesses a Nobel medal, just not one awarded to him. Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel laureate, presented Trump with her medal at the White House in January. Trump accepted it, while the Nobel Committee stressed the prize itself remains hers.
“无论谁获得诺贝尔奖，特朗普都会感到不满，”多伦多大学名誉教授纳尔逊·威斯曼（Nelson Wiseman）表示：“如果马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）获得了这个奖项，那么加拿大与美国的关系将会变得更加紧张。”《时代》杂志（Time）早已将卡尼列为2026年最具影响力的人物之一，并特别指出：由于卡尼敢于反抗特朗普，他的声望反而提升了。
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”Time already named Carney one of its 100 most influential people of 2026 and specifically noted his popularity increased as he stood up to Trump.
周二，在各大预测机构关于“《时代》年度人物”的投票中，卡尼排在第二位，仅次于纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）；最终获奖者将于12月10日正式公布。
On Tuesday, Carney was the second choice on major prediction markets for Time’s Person of the Year, behind New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The winner will be announced December 10.
《时代》杂志认为，特朗普的言行正在推动一种“新的全球秩序”的形成——这种秩序越来越不是由各种制度或机构来决定的，而是由一个人的意志所主导的。卡尼则呼吁中等强国团结起来，而不是一个个屈服于美国的压力。
Time has described Trump’s cumulative impact as helping create a “new global order” increasingly shaped “not by systems or institutions, but by the will of a single man”. Carney’s answer has been to urge middle powers to band together rather than bend one by one.
纽约大学教授斯科特·加洛韦（Scott Galloway）表示：“卡尼绝对有获胜的机会，他正是欧洲过去20年来一直在寻找的领导者。”
New York University professor Scott Galloway said Carney has it in the bag and called him “the leader that Europe’s been looking for for the last 20 years”.
加洛韦在播客中称：“我毫不怀疑，《时代》年度人物已经内定，获奖者将是马克·卡尼。”
“I believe, hands down, Time’s Person of the Year has already been decided and it’s going to be Mark Carney,” Galloway said.
记者法里德·扎卡里亚（Fareed Zakaria）也指出：卡尼在国外赢得了广泛赞誉；对于那些面临美国不可预测行为的国家来说，卡尼为它们提供了一种新的思路和途径，帮助它们建立新的联盟，而不是盲目屈服于美国的压力。
On Galloway’s podcast, journalist Fareed Zakaria said Carney is winning admiration abroad and has given countries facing a less predictable United States “a kind of language and a path” to build new alliances rather than simply bend to Washington.
卡尼的声望在1月份的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上得到了显著提升。他在论坛上宣布旧的国际秩序已经终结，并呼吁中等强国加强合作，而不是坐等其恢复。他的演讲正值欧洲领导人面临特朗普试图吞并格陵兰岛以及美国关税威胁的关键时刻。
Carney’s standing abroad took off in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he declared the old international order was not coming back and urged middle powers to work together rather than wait for its restoration. His speech came as European leaders were confronting Trump’s push to acquire Greenland and tariff threats.
“我们正经历一场断裂，而非处于转型期。”卡尼在演讲中说道，现场响起一片起立欢呼。
“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition,” Carney said in his speech, which received a standing ovation.
此后，卡尼试图将对建立全球新秩序的主张付诸实践，推动加拿大与欧洲进一步走近，并在亚洲寻找新伙伴；与此同时，特朗普征收的关税破坏了加拿大与美国原有的关系。
Carney has since tried to put the argument for a new global order into practice, pushing Canada closer to Europe and seeking new partners in Asia as Trump’s tariffs fractured the old Canada-US relationship.
本月，欧洲议员再次为卡尼起立欢呼。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩提议，为加拿大成为欧盟首个联系成员打开大门。
European lawmakers gave Carney another standing ovation this month as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed opening the door for Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member.
“卡尼之所以能在国际上崭露头角，是因为他敢于挺身对抗特朗普；相比之下，欧洲人和亚洲人都争相与他达成协议。”怀斯曼说，“特朗普对加拿大的施压，帮助卡尼提升了在世界各地眼中的地位。”美联社
“Carney’s international profile has been driven by his standing up to Trump, unlike the Europeans and Asians who rushed to make deals with him,” Wiseman said. “Trump’s pressure on Canada has helped elevate Carney in the eyes of the world.”By Associated Press