当米科拉·卢帕尔和他的船员从乌克兰黑海港口切尔诺莫尔斯克乘坐海军巡逻艇出海时，这位29岁的指挥官通常只能以分钟计算他们在公海上停留的时间，然后就得匆忙返回海岸。
When Mykola Lupar and his crew head out on a navy patrol boat from the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Chornomorsk, the 29-year-old commander can usually count the time they spend on the open water in minutes, before rushing back to shore.
艇上的重机枪几乎无法抵御从克里米亚发射的俄制喷气式无人机，尤其是当他们试图登上在汹涌波涛中摇晃的船只时。
The heavy machine guns aboard can’t offer much protection from Russian jet-powered drones launched from Crimea, especially when they are trying to board a vessel rocking in the churning waves.
“我们试图在俄军袭击的间隙中寻找时间窗口进行巡逻，搜寻水雷和一些爆炸物，”卢帕尔说。
“We are trying to find some windows in time between Russian attacks to patrol, to search for mines and some explosive materials,” Lupar said.
“这非常危险。对于商船队来说，我认为在我们的水域几乎没有安全的机会。”经过近五年的战争，海事分析人士警告称，黑海冲突的激烈程度已达到自2022年2月24日俄罗斯全面入侵初期以来的最高水平。
“It’s very dangerous. For the merchant fleet, I would say there’s almost no chance to stay safe in our waters.”After nearly five years of war, maritime analysts warn that the conflict in the Black Sea is the most intense it has been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which began on Feb. 24, 2022.
今年7月中旬以来，针对商船的袭击急剧升级，俄罗斯试图阻止乌克兰出口并重创其经济，而基辅则试图通过打击与莫斯科“影子舰队”有关的船只及部分港口基础设施，削弱俄罗斯为战争提供资金的能力。
Since mid-July of this year, strikes on commercial vessels have escalated dramatically as Russia seeks to halt Ukraine’s exports and bludgeon its economy, while Kyiv has tried to blunt Russia’s ability to fund its war by striking vessels connected to Moscow’s shadow fleet and some of its port infrastructure.
据总部位于英国、专门从事全球海上风险分析的安布雷公司统计，7月至9月底期间，针对商船的袭击超过210起。
According to Ambrey, a British-based firm specializing in global maritime risk, there were more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels between July and the end of September.
其中125起归咎于乌克兰，88起归咎于俄罗斯。这些袭击不仅加剧了整个黑海的风险，还削弱了两国的出口能力，引发了对全球粮食供应的担忧。
It attributed 125 of those strikes to Ukraine and 88 to Russia. The strikes have not only elevated the risk across the entire Black Sea, but have also eroded the export capacity of both countries, sparking concerns about the global grain supply.
俄罗斯和乌克兰合计约占全球小麦出口的四分之一，分析人士估计，两国合计出口量较去年下降了60%。
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for roughly a quarter of the world’s wheat exports, and analysts estimate that their combined exports are down 60 per cent from last year.
由土耳其牵头的各项努力，旨在促成黑海地区实现有限停火，但至今未能奏效。尽管俄罗斯与乌克兰都在寻求其他出口通道，但针对船只及港口的袭击已导致全球小麦价格上涨，未来价格可能还会进一步攀升。
Efforts, including those led by Turkey, to secure a limited truce in the Black Sea have so far failed. While both Russia and Ukraine are looking for alternative routes for their exports, the attacks on shipping and ports are already leading to a rise in global wheat prices, which could spike further.
“这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题，而是整个地区面临的难题，”乌克兰港口协会主席德米特罗·巴里诺夫说道。
“It’s not only a Ukrainian problem. This is a problem for the whole region,” said Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association.
“加油站的油价不断上涨，所有人都感受到了燃油短缺的压力。相信我，很快——最迟在10月或11月——我们整个地区的人们都将面临食品短缺的困境。”自全面入侵以来，俄罗斯频繁袭击乌克兰的港口与船只，其中包括位于多瑙河畔、与罗马尼亚接壤的伊兹梅尔港。
“The price jumps at the gas station and everybody feels the lack of fuel. And here, believe me, very soon — October, November latest — everybody will feel the shortage of food in our region, unfortunately.”Throughout its full-scale invasion, Russia has routinely attacked Ukraine’s ports and ships, including the port of Izmail, which lies on the Danube River and borders Romania.
自7月起，莫斯科加大了对这些目标的攻击力度。俄罗斯国防部坚称其仅针对军事设施发动袭击；周四，当一艘货船在乌克兰的切尔诺莫斯克港遭袭后，俄方官员指责该船为军方提供物资。
But since July, Moscow has ratcheted up its attacks. Russia’s Defence Ministry insists it is targeting only military assets, and after it struck a cargo vessel in the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on Thursday, officials accused the ship of supplying the military.
巴里诺夫则指出，俄罗斯袭击的目标纯粹是民用船只。他举例称，今年7月，一枚导弹击中了停泊在敖德萨港附近的“金狮号”货船，导致10人丧生；乌克兰官方证实，该船当时正运载玉米。
Barinov insists that Russia is hitting purely civilian ships and points to a missile strike on a vessel named the Golden Leo, which was near the port of Odesa in July. Ten people were killed in the strike, which Ukrainian officials said was carrying corn.
他将俄罗斯的袭击行为比作狩猎，因为商船航行速度缓慢、难以灵活机动，且不具备任何军事防御能力。
He describes Russia’s attacks as akin to hunting because merchant ships are slow, can’t manoeuvre quickly and don’t have military defences.
“这就好比从直升机上猎杀大象，”他在接受加拿大广播公司采访时说道。
“It’s like hunting for an elephant from a helicopter,” he said in an interview with CBC News in Odesa.
不过，乌克兰同样也在黑海及亚速海对俄罗斯的船只与基础设施发动攻击。这两条海域通过克里米亚东部的刻赤海峡相连。今年8月，乌克兰对俄罗斯的新罗西斯克港发动大规模导弹与无人机袭击，击中了一处海军基地并破坏了两座重要的粮食出口码头。
But Ukraine, too, has been striking Russian ships and infrastructure in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which are connected by the Kerch Strait, east of Crimea. In August, when Ukraine launched a massive missile and drone strike against the Russian port of Novorossiysk, it hit a naval base and damaged two major grain export terminals.
双方的袭击行动促使总部位于伦敦的保险公司扩大了其认定的黑海高风险区域范围，因为越来越多的船只在该海域更靠南的区域遭到攻击。此外，未爆炸弹药的数量也显著增加。据Ambrey公司统计，今年迄今为止，在俄罗斯与乌克兰领海之外已发现50多枚此类弹药。
The strikes by both sides have prompted London-based insurers to expand the area of the Black Sea they consider high risk, as vessels are being hit farther south in the sea. There has also been a significant increase in the number of unexploded ordnance. According to Ambrey, more than 50 were found outside Russian and Ukrainian waters so far this year.
2022年，联合国与土耳其携手促成了一项名为“黑海谷物倡议”的协议，旨在保障商业船只顺利驶入乌克兰港口。但一年后，由于俄罗斯拒绝续签协议，该倡议宣告失效。
Back in 2022, the UN and Turkey worked to secure an agreement known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative to keep commercial vessels transiting to Ukrainian ports. But after a year, it fell apart when Russia refused to renew it.
此后，乌克兰自行开辟了航运通道：船只需先沿土耳其、保加利亚和罗马尼亚的海岸线航行，方能抵达乌克兰港口。然而如今，这条航线也因俄罗斯的大规模攻击而陷入中断。
In the wake of that, Ukraine established its own shipping corridor, where vessels would reach its ports by first travelling along the coastlines of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania before reaching Ukraine. But that route has now also been disrupted by Russia’s widespread attacks.
俄罗斯对乌克兰港口的攻击愈演愈烈，使得航运风险陡增。战略与国际研究中心全球粮食与水安全项目主任凯特琳·威尔士指出，自俄罗斯发动全面入侵以来，全球粮食价格（剔除通胀因素后）一度创下历史新高。如今情况则有所不同：俄罗斯的大量出口能力也已无法发挥效用。
Escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports is making shipping risky September 30 Duration Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that after Russia first launched its full-scale invasion, global food prices reached an all-time high not factoring in inflation. Now, she says, the difference is that a significant chunk of Russia’s export capacity is offline as well.
“如今不仅是俄罗斯在攻击乌克兰，乌克兰也在反击俄罗斯，两者同时发生，”她在接受加拿大广播公司视频采访时说道。
“Now it’s not just Russia attacking Ukraine, it’s Ukraine also attacking Russia, and those things are happening at the same time,” she said in a Zoom interview with CBC News.
联合国粮食及农业组织最新数据显示，受黑海航运受阻等因素影响，全球小麦价格较去年上涨了15%。
Recent figures from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization say world wheat prices are up 15 per cent from last year, driven in part by disruptions in the Black Sea.
“价格已经在上涨，我认为我们可以预期粮价，尤其是小麦价格，会继续攀升。”威尔什不确定价格是否会涨到2022年的水平，但他指出，黑海地区的动荡正值其他全球性冲击发生之际，包括霍尔木兹海峡的危机，以及厄尔尼诺现象带来的叠加影响——该现象导致全球小麦产区遭遇干旱，进一步加剧了粮食不安全状况。
“Prices are already increasing, and I think we can expect grain prices, especially wheat prices, to continue to increase.”Welsh isn’t sure that prices will rise to 2022 levels, but does note that the turmoil in the Black Sea is happening at the same time as other global shocks, including the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the compounding effects of El Niño, which brought drought to global wheat-producing regions, creating further food insecurity.
对于敖德萨的乌克兰人来说，他们趁着周二下午相对没有无人机的空隙，来到港口附近风大浪急的岸边，可以明显感觉到近海处没有停泊的船只。“这真的很令人担忧，”20岁的伊琳娜·科斯蒂娜说。
For Ukrainians in Odesa, who took advantage of a relatively drone-free sky on Tuesday afternoon to visit the windswept shore near the port, the absence of ships moored offshore is noticeable. “It is really concerning,” said 20-year-old Iryna Kostina.
“我们的国家有大量的粮食，农业非常发达，这对每个人来说基本上都将是一个糟糕的局面。” 基辅的24小时：在俄罗斯无人机袭击中生活 为什么乌克兰如此难以击落俄罗斯的喷气式无人机？
“Our country has a lot of grain, a lot of agriculture, and it’s basically going to be a bad situation for everyone.” 24 hours in Kyiv: Living through Russian drone strikes Why is it so difficult for Ukraine to take down Russia's jet-powered drones?
乌克兰利用无人机向处于饥荒边缘的被占领城市奥莱什基空投援助物资
Ukraine uses drones to make airdrops of aid to occupied city of Oleshky on brink of starvation