人们将这次选举称为“红色逆流”选举。随着中期选举进入最后几周的竞选阶段，民主党人在美国一些传统上倾向共和党的地区获得了显著支持。在阿拉斯加州、堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州乃至密西西比州，参议院候选人的民调支持率差距远小于预期——要知道，2024年总统选举时，唐纳德·特朗普在这些州分别以13个、16个、21个和23个百分点的优势获胜。
They’re calling it “the red undertow” election. As candidates enter their final weeks of campaigning this midterm cycle, Democrats are seeing massive gains in some of the reddest areas of the country. Senate races in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska and even Mississippi are polling much closer than expected, given that President Donald Trump won those states in 2024 by 13, 16, 21 and 23 points respectively.
但与此同时，民主党人在那些传统上倾向民主党的州或摇摆州却未能获得同样规模的支持。卡玛拉·哈里斯仅以3个百分点的优势赢得新罕布什尔州，以7个百分点的优势拿下缅因州，而在密歇根州则仅以不到0.5个百分点的差距落败。然而在这些州的参议院选举中，各候选人的民调支持率差距也仅在几个百分点之内。
But at the same time, Democrats aren’t seeing the same wave of support in blue and purple states. Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by three points, Maine by seven, and lost Michigan by about half a percentage point. And yet, the Senate races in those states show the candidates polling within just a few points of each other.
资深选举分析专家查理·库克将这一现象称为“红色逆流”——这意味着我们或许不会看到所有民主党候选人都能获得广泛支持的“蓝色浪潮”，而是选民普遍对特朗普及其政党持排斥态度的局面。
Trump ‘scared of the voters’: Norm Eisen mocks Trump’s red state swing October 1, 2026 Veteran election handicapper Charlie Cook dubbed the phenomenon as “the red undertow,” where we might not see a “blue wave” election — where all Democratic boats rise — but a scenario where voters broadly reject Trump and his party.
“我从未见到任何数据能证明民众对民主党感到满意，”库克近日对《华盛顿月刊》说道，“完全没有。这一切完全都是因为特朗普。”这种复杂的局势使得两党都难以把握政治走向。
“I haven’t seen any data whatsoever suggesting people are happy with the Democratic Party,” Cook recently told Washington Monthly“None, zero. This is 100% about Trump.”The situation is creating a political sea that’s difficult to navigate for both parties.
“我认为每个州的情况都不一样，”康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲本周对记者说，“美国幅员辽阔，不存在一个适用于所有州的统一规律。各州的政治动态必然各不相同。”
“I just think every state is different,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told reporters this week. “This is an enormous country, and there’s not one story that plays out in equal measure across different states.”
本周，当MS NOW记者问及纽约州民主党众议院领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯对“红色逆流”现象的看法时，他表示目前存在“两种情况”。杰弗里斯指出：“其一，共和党人未能兑现对美国民众的承诺。物价持续上涨、医疗补助被削减，特朗普还把美国拖入了中东的另一场战争。”
“There’s gonna be different dynamics from state to state,” he said. When MS NOW asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., about the “red undertow” this week, he said there were “two things taking place.”“One, you’ve had Republicans fail to actually deliver on the promises that they’ve made to the American people,” Jeffries said, mentioning that costs have gone up, Medicaid has been cut, and Trump got America into another war in the Middle East.
“共和党人许下的诸多承诺最终都未能兑现，这些‘失信记录’正在实实在在地伤害美国民众，”他说。
“You have a graveyard of broken Republican promises actively hurting the American people,” he said.
与此同时，杰弗里斯推测，传统的共和党选民如今开始认为“民主党人确实把他们的利益放在心上”。他补充道：“我们真心致力于降低居高不下的生活成本，努力打造一个能让普通美国人受益的经济环境。”
And then, at the same time, Jeffries theorized that traditional Republican voters were concluding that “Democrats actually have their best interests at heart.”“That we are actually committed to lowering the high cost of living and making sure that we have an economy that works for everyday Americans,” he said.
民主党人一方面为在传统共和党大本营取得的进展而欢欣鼓舞，另一方面也在那些传统上的关键摇摆州竭尽全力争取每一位选民。不过，由于众多选区的竞争态势都十分胶着，众议院和参议院的最终结果出现了更多可能性。
Democrats are celebrating their gains in red states while fighting for every voter in the more traditional battlegrounds. But the relative competitiveness of so many races has created a much larger range of outcomes for both the House and Senate.
对共和党人而言，他们总算松了一口气——至少部分选举结果有望让共和党在参众两院中占据多数席位。不过多数共和党人认为，保住参议院控制权的可能性要高于保住众议院控制权。
Republicans, for their part, are breathing a sigh of relief that at least some of those outcomes could translate into GOP majorities in either chamber, though most Republicans see better chances of holding onto the Senate rather than the House.
然而，全国各地选情都如此接近，意味着共和党必须向大量竞选活动投入资源——甚至包括那些按常理来说本应稳操胜券的选区。
The close races across the country, however, mean that Republicans need to throw resources at a lot of campaigns — even ones that, on paper, would normally seem safe.
本周一，特朗普计划在内布拉斯加州的大岛市举行集会。届时，共和党现任参议员皮特·里基茨将迎战独立候选人丹·奥斯本。最近的民调显示，两人的支持率基本持平。
On Monday, Trump is scheduled to rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, as Republican incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off a challenge from Independent Dan Osborn. Recent polls have suggested the race is essentially tied.
上个月，副总统J.D.万斯前往堪萨斯州，为共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔助选。尽管自1932年以来就再无民主党人能在堪萨斯州的参议员选举中胜出，但马歇尔在谋求连任时仍遭遇了强劲挑战。
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance traveled to Kansas last month to rally for GOP incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall is facing a surprisingly competitive challenge as he seeks a second term, even though a Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
上个月，特朗普还表示计划前往阿拉斯加州，为参议员丹·沙利文“助阵”。目前沙利文正与前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉展开激烈角逐。据《纽约时报》报道，特朗普的超级政治行动委员会已向该选区投入了1130万美元。倘若共和党没有比民主党充裕得多的资金可供调配，这种局面对他们造成的打击将会更为严重。
And last month, Trump said he plans to travel to Alaska to “fight for” Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s locked in a close race with former Rep. Mary Peltola. Trump’s super PAC has already dumped $11.3 million into the race, according to The New York Times The dynamic would be more damaging for Republicans if they didn’t have so much more money to spend than Democrats.
目前，共和党众议院竞选机构所掌握的资金规模远超其民主党对手。在所有全国性竞选委员会层面，共和党比民主党多出超过1亿美元的资金储备——这还不包括那些超级政治行动委员会。在这些委员会中，共和党可能拥有高达两倍于民主党的资金优势，进而助力相关竞选活动。
The House GOP’s campaign arm has a record cash advantage over its Democratic counterpart. And Republicans have over $100 million more than Democrats across all of their national committees — and that’s before super PACs, where Republicans may have as much as a two-to-one cash advantage get involved in these races.
特朗普的中期选举攻势尚未在各关键选区展开。本周，共和党参议院竞选机构负责人指出，资金优势或许将成为共和党在11月选举中的决定性因素。
Trump’s midterm blitz starts far from battlegrounds As the head of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm suggested this week the money lead for Republicans could be decisive this November.
“资金就是王道，”美国共和党参议院委员会主席、参议员蒂姆·斯科特周三说道。
“Cash is king,” Sen. Tim Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Wednesday.
虽然资金优势或许能缓解“红色逆流”带来的负面影响，但其他共和党人则认为，民主党在特朗普支持率较高的州取得的进展不过是选举过程中的正常波动现象。
While the money advantage could blunt some of the effects of the red undertow, other Republicans brushed off the Democratic gains in Trump country as part of the normal volatility of a political race.
“选举就是如此，”路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪说道，“有时领先，有时落后。”不过，“红色逆流”现象的出现正值特朗普处境艰难之时——目前他的支持率处于历史低位。据Real Clear Politics统计，本周特朗普的支持率降至本届任期内的新低，仅为38.7%。至少有一位共和党参议员指出，特朗普推行的政策正是导致共和党在部分传统红州陷入困境的原因。
“That’s what happens in elections,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said. “Some days you’re up, some days you’re down.”But the “red undertow” theory is coming to shore at a difficult time for Trump, whose approval rating is deep underwater. It hit its lowest point this term — 38.7% — this week, according to Real Clear Politics At least one Republican senator said Trump’s policies are contributing to the GOP’s struggles in some red states.
当被问及内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州的激烈选情时，南达科他州共和党参议员迈克·朗兹对MS NOW表示，问题的根源在于生活成本问题。
Asked about tight races in Nebraska, Kansas and Texas, Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told MS NOW it goes back to the cost of living.
“很大程度上是物价上涨的问题，还有畜牧业成本、各类商品价格以及关税的影响，”朗兹说道，“这些因素对中西部各州都构成了巨大压力。”自2015年起担任参议员、此前还担任过南达科他州州长的朗兹指出，特朗普的关税政策以及暂时暂停牛肉进口关税的措施，正是导致民主党在众多农业州获得更多支持的主要原因。
“A lot of it’s affordability, and then livestock, and this, and then tariffs,” Rounds said. “They’re all tough in midwest states.”Rounds, who has been a senator since 2015 and served as governor of South Dakota before, cited Trump’s tariff policies, as well his temporary tariff suspension on beef imports, to argue that a lot of the Democratic gains are coming from farm states.
“归根结底，关税削弱了我们推销产品的能力，”朗兹强调，并特别提到了大豆、玉米和畜牧产品。
“The bottom line is tariffs impact our ability to market our products,” Rounds said, pointing specifically to soybeans, corn and livestock.
“政府似乎确实伤害了畜牧业生产者，”朗兹说道。他补充说，牧场主们感到“受伤”，因为他们曾觉得与总统有着“真正的亲近感”。
“It seems as though the administration really hurt the livestock producers,” Rounds said, adding that ranchers “feel hurt” because they sense “a real kinship to the president.”
“他们只是觉得，当总统暗示将增加外国牛肉进口时，他并没有意识到这对他们的日常生活造成了多大影响，”他在谈到养牛户时说。“这直接影响了许多人，导致他们在市场上获得的每头牲畜的价格受到冲击。”当然，这种态势也给民主党人带来了挑战。他们仍然必须在这些摇摆州获胜——这意味着要投入资源——同时他们也感觉到，如果能有资金投入，他们本可以在共和党州取得重大进展。
“And they just feel like he wasn’t cognizant of just how it impacted them on a daily basis when he suggested that they were gonna have an additional import of foreign beef,” he said of cattle ranchers. “That impacted a lot of people immediately with prices per animal that they were getting in the markets.”Of course, the dynamic comes with its own challenges for Democrats. They still have to win in these battleground states — which means pouring resources into them — while also sensing that they make major inroads in the red states, if they just had the money to invest there.
由于除了佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州之外，其他州的民调领先优势并不稳固，民主党人被迫在进攻之前先进行防守。
In the absence of durable polling leads in all but Georgia and North Carolina, Democrats are forced to play defense before they play offense.
这意味着他们正在向密歇根州投入资源，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）正与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）展开激烈角逐；在新罕布什尔州，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯（Chris Pappas）正试图从前共和党参议员约翰·苏努努（John Sununu）手中保住这一席位。
That means they’re pouring resources into Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is in a tight race with former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, and New Hampshire, where Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is trying to keep the seat blue against former GOP Sen. John Sununu.
民主党人还认为他们应该能在缅因州获胜，那里的选民在2024年以7个百分点的优势选择了卡玛拉·哈里斯。但民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）正在与曾多次打破政治常规的参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）进行一场缩减且复杂的竞选。
Democrats also feel like they should be able to win in Maine, where voters chose Kamala Harris in 2024 by 7 points. But Democrat Troy Jackson is running a truncated and complicated race against Sen. Susan Collins, who has defied political gravity before.
其结果对民主党人来说是一个悖论。他们的候选人在那些预期会输的州表现远超预期，而在竞争激烈的州，选情依然胶着。
The result is a paradox for Democrats. Their candidates are performing much better than expected in the states where they expected to lose, and in the competitive states, the races remain just that: competitive.
如果一切进展顺利，民主党人可能会迎来一个大获全胜的夜晚。但如果仅有几场势均力敌的竞选被共和党人拿下——而民主党人在阿拉斯加、得克萨斯、俄亥俄、堪萨斯、内布拉斯加和密西西比等共和党州以微弱劣势落败——那么结果可能会让他们的党派感到失望。尽管如此，民主党人依然保持乐观。
If everything breaks their way, Democrats could be looking at a big night. But if just a few close races go for Republicans — and the Democrats narrowly lose in the red states like Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi — the result could be a disappointment for their party. Still, Democrats are optimistic.
一年前，我会说民主党拿下参议院多数席位的概率只有三分之一，但当时的趋势正在向好的方向发展，”弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员蒂姆·凯恩说。
“A year ago, I would have said Democrats would have a one-in-three chance of taking the Senate majority, but the arc was going in a positive direction,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said.
“如今，”他本周在接受记者采访时说，“我认为，大多数人会说胜算五五开——而不是三分之一——而且趋势仍在向好的方向发展。”后民主党人正在特朗普的地盘取得重大进展。摇摆州则是另一回事。MS NOW
“Today,” he told reporters this week, “I think most would say it’s a 50-50 chance — not a one-in-three chance — and the arc is still going in the positive direction.”The post Democrats are making huge gains in Trump country. The battleground states are a different story. MS NOW