曾为唐纳德·特朗普2024年连任竞选团队效力的一位资深竞选策略师对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，那些政治评论员们误解了总统在中期选举前展开的横跨32个州的巡回集会背后的战略意图——这些集会地点中不乏一些传统上倾向共和党的“深红州”。
A veteran campaign strategist who worked for Donald Trump's 2024 reelection bid told Fox News Digital that pundits are misreading the strategy behind the president's 32-state pre-midterms rally tour, which includes stops in deep red states.
周四，特朗普总统在达拉斯郊区的丹顿市发表演讲，随后前往俄克拉荷马州。该州长期以来都是保守派的据点，自1964年林登·约翰逊当选总统以来，就再无民主党人能在该州赢得总统选举。周五，特朗普还将在阿拉巴马州的莫比尔市举行集会，那里同样是一个传统上由共和党主导的州。
Thursday, the president spoke in Denton, Texas, a suburb of Dallas before traveling to Oklahoma, a longtime bastion of conservatism that hasn't been carried by a Democrat in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Trump on Friday will rally in Mobile, Alabama, another traditionally Republican-dominated state.
尽管众多政治分析人士推测，特朗普的密集集会行动预示着共和党在11月选举中前景堪忧，但深谙第47任总统竞选运作机制的卢克·鲍尔却持不同观点。
While political analysts speculate Trump's blitz signals doom for the GOP in November, Luke Ball, who knows intimately the inner-workings of how the 47th president operates on the campaign trail, has a different view.
“对于那些从‘总统处境艰难’这一角度发表评论的人而言，仅仅因为总统出现在了这些深红州就下此结论，其实是一种过于草率的分析。”鲍尔说道。
CAN THE 'BEST SHOWMAN IN POLITICS' DELIVER AGAIN? GOP BETS ON TRUMP AT HISTORIC MIDTERM CONVENTION "So, for people who are maybe commenting and doing it from a perspective of 'the president's in trouble,' I think that it's kind of a lazy analysis for you to just take it at surface value that he's in red states," Ball said.
他补充称，得克萨斯州与俄克拉荷马州在政治上联系紧密，总统在两地同时现身有助于提升11月中期选举中这些深红州内摇摆选区乃至其他竞争较为激烈的选区的共和党选民投票率。
He added that Texas and Oklahoma go "hand in hand," and that the appearing in both places can boost Republican midterm turnout in November across swing district or more competitive districts found in some deep red states.
虽然鲍尔也承认这一策略对特朗普而言存在一定风险，但他强调这场为期一个月的巡回集会绝非一时心血来潮之举。
Though he admits the strategy is a "risk" for Trump, he says the month-long tour isn't a fly-by-night operation.
“人们总在强调——这对总统而言确实存在政治风险——总统的名字会出现在选票上且位居首位。但这么做的真正原因在于，共和党全国委员会、MAGA相关组织以及詹姆斯·布莱尔等人掌握着相关数据，能够准确判断哪些选民会为总统投票，而其他人则不会。”鲍尔说道。
GOP FACES BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS AS REPUBLICANS PAINT ELECTION AS ‘COMPETITION WITH COMMUNISM’ "They keep saying — and it's a risk politically for the president — but they keep saying that he is on the ballot and on the top of the ballot, but the reason they're doing it is because the RNC the MAGA Incs, and the James Blair's of the world have the data that show who's going to turn out for the president and nobody else," said Ball.
MAGA Inc.是一家超级政治行动委员会，曾在2024年投入超过3.75亿美元助力特朗普当选，如今正全力支持全美各地的共和党国会候选人。詹姆斯·布莱尔曾是特朗普2024年竞选团队的政治总监，如今担任白宫副幕僚长。
MAGA Inc. is a Super PAC that poured more than $375 million into electing Trump in 2024, and is now backing Republican congressional candidates nationwide. James Blair was Trump's 2024 campaign political director, and is now the White House Deputy Chief of Staff.
一位黑人保守派人士透露：即便特朗普不在选票上，共和党也能牢牢掌控少数族裔选民的选票。“下一站是阿拉巴马州的莫比尔——那也是我曾工作过的媒体市场区域，范围还涵盖佛罗里达州的彭萨科拉。这个地区向来能为全州带动投票率，”鲍尔说道，“所以，如果你想巩固自己在佛罗里达州的地位，证明自己仍是这个几年前还属于摇摆州、如今民主党都懒得在此投入资源的州的掌舵人，就必须确保牢牢掌控这片地区的选情。”
BLACK CONSERVATIVE REVEALS HOW GOP CAN LOCK DOWN MINORITY VOTERS WITHOUT TRUMP ON BALLOT "The next stop is in Mobile, Alabama, another media market that I worked in, which is going to encompass Pensacola, Florida — which always brings out the vote for the rest of the state," Ball said. "So if you want to solidify your standing in Florida and show that you still are the kingmaker in that state that used to be purple a few years ago, and now Democrats don't even bother spending in it, you've got to make sure that you lock that down."
“在阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州打造良好的形象固然重要，除此之外，还要激发得克萨斯州那些传统红区的选民积极性，让佛罗里达州那些极度倾向共和党的地区民众也踊跃参与投票。”这些集会的全国性媒体报道本身也是整体策略的一环。
"So, great optics in Alabama, great optics in Oklahoma, but in addition to that, you're getting a red area of Texas motivated to turn out and a very, very red area of Florida to turn out for those elections." Nationwide media coverage of the rallies is in itself part of the strategy, too.
“其他传统候选人通常会根据各州情况来合理分配候选人的时间，但此前人们都以为特朗普根本不会参与竞选活动，如今情况却完全相反，”鲍尔解释道，“大家都在疑惑：‘他为何如此频繁地奔波？为何专程前往这些传统红州呢？’其实原因也很简单：在阿拉巴马州莫比尔、俄克拉荷马州乃至全美其他传统红州举办大型集会，同样能获得全国性的广泛报道。”
"Other traditional candidates would strategically target and fine-tune the principal's time in various states, but people were saying Trump wasn't going to go out on the campaign trail at all, and now it's the total opposite," Ball explained. "It's, 'why is he doing so much? Why is he hitting all of these deep red states?' It's also from a perspective too, when you have these major rallies in Mobile, Alabama, or Oklahoma or deep red states across the nation, that still gets major national coverage." LARGEST-EVER US STEEL PLANT IS COMING TO A KEY RED STATE AS TRUMP UNVEILS $15B INVESTMENT In Denton, Trump toured a Peterbilt truck manufacturing plant, where he met with employees of the company and made brief remarks. Stops like that are part of a broader campaign strategy, according to Ball.
特朗普宣布将投入150亿美元投资，美国有史以来规模最大的钢铁厂即将落户一个关键红州。在丹顿，特朗普参观了一家彼得比尔特卡车制造厂，会见了公司员工并发表了简短讲话。据鲍尔介绍，这类行程也是整体竞选策略的组成部分。
"When we were on the campaign trail, I remember [former co-campaign manager] Susie Wiles saying that at every stop he goes to, she wants him at an off the record event, whether that's going into the Bluebird Diner in Iowa or eating a hoagie in Buc-ee's or whatever it might be, and I almost see a little bit of parallel here with the macro strategy behind the tour," he said.
“当我们在竞选活动中时，我记得[前联合竞选经理]苏西·怀尔斯（Susie Wiles）说，在他去的每一站，她都希望他参加一场非公开的活动，无论是去爱荷华州的蓝鸟餐厅还是在布伊餐厅吃三明治，或者其他什么，我几乎在这里看到了一点与巡演背后的宏观策略相似的地方，”他说。怀尔斯现在是特朗普密切信任的白宫幕僚长。
Wiles is now Trump's closely trusted White House Chief of Staff.
“他不是突然出现在夫妻档节目或商店里，而是参观制造业，或者去一个州的特定行业，然后在另一个州举行一场占领媒体市场的集会。所以你不仅仅是出现然后离开，”鲍尔继续说道。“你总是在想你还能做些什么来吸引该州的选民。"
"Instead of popping into a mom and pop show or store, he's touring manufacturing or he's going to a specific industry in one state and then holding a rally that captures the media market in another. So you're not just showing up and leaving," Ball continued. "You always think about what's the additional thing you can do to draw out voters in that state."