根据周五发布的联邦就业报告,9月份创造的就业机会微乎其微,夏季创造的就业机会弱于预期,这使得劳动力市场的一些明显活跃情绪有所减弱。
Job creation was minimal in September and weaker over the summer than was thought, according to the federal employment report released Friday — taking some of the apparent buoyancy out of the labor market picture.
为什么重要:这是数据告诉我们更多关于没有发生的事情而不是正在发生的事情的情况之一。
Why it matters: This is one of those instances where the data tells us more about what isn't happening than what is.
劳动力市场看起来显然不会升温--当然不会迫使美联储采取更积极的货币紧缩政策。
And the labor market decidedly doesn't look to be heating up — certainly not in a way that might compel more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed.
在背后,9月份就业市场的数据比今天早上悲观的头条新闻可能暗示的要复杂得多,在某些方面甚至更加乐观。
Under the hood, the data on the September job market is more mixed — and in some ways even more optimistic — than gloomy headlines this morning might suggest.
从数字来看:9月份雇主增加了29,000个就业岗位,远低于分析师预期的84,000个。美国劳工统计局还将7月和8月的数据下调了60,000个就业岗位。
By the numbers: Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the 84,000 analysts had expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised July and August numbers down by 60,000 jobs.
算上,三个月平均每月新增就业岗位51,000个,远低于春季的增长速度。
Tally it up and the three-month average is 51,000 jobs added a month, well below the pace in the spring.
与此同时,失业率从4.1%升至4.2%。一线希望是,这是有充分理由的:更多的美国人正在寻找工作。劳动力参与率和就业人口比均有所上升。
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1%. The silver lining there is that it was for good reasons: more Americans looking for work. The labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio both ticked up.
现实检验:就业增长是目前需要分析的一个硬数据点,因为没有人非常确定就业增长应该是什么--考虑到不稳定的移民政策,稳定的、充分就业的就业增长会是什么样子。
Reality check: Job growth is a hard data point to parse right now because nobody is quite sure what it should be — what steady-state, full-employment payrolls growth would look like given the volatile immigration policy.
与此同时,劳动力参与率的上升有助于缓解今年早些时候人们对黄金年龄成年人完全退出劳动力的担忧。
Meanwhile, the rise in labor force participation helps assuage worries from earlier in the year that prime-age adults were skipping out of the workforce entirely.
他们在说什么:格伦梅德的杰森·普劳德(Jason Pride)在一份报告中写道:“并非失业率的每次上升都是一个警告。”他补充说,“这一次尤其读起来是信心而不是痛苦的标志。"
What they're saying: "Not every increase in the unemployment rate is a warning," Jason Pride of Glenmede wrote in a note, adding that "this one in particular reads as a sign of confidence rather than distress."
“在今年大部分时间都在与充分就业一致的区间低端度过之后,失业率的上升远没有其背后的原因那么重要,工人们选择离场是一个令人鼓舞的信号,表明他们如何看待自己的前景。“缩小:总而言之,9月份的数据描绘的总体情况是劳动力市场处于平衡状态,或者换句话说,劳动力市场既没有崩溃,也没有太大过热风险。
"After spending most of this year at the low end of the range consistent with full employment, a tick higher in the unemployment rate matters far less than the reason behind it, and workers choosing to come off the sidelines is an encouraging signal about how they view their prospects." Zoom out: Put it together, and the overall picture that the September numbers paint is one of a labor market in balance — or in other words, one that is neither falling apart nor at much risk of overheating.
有迹象表明,今年早些时候就业市场正在重新加速。情况看起来不再是这样了--相反,它只是在幕后稳步推进,而其他经济头条新闻则引起了市场和美联储的关注。
There have been hints that the job market was reaccelerating earlier this year. That no longer looks to be the case — rather it is just rumbling along steadily in the background while other economic headlines draw attention from markets and the Fed.
在通胀高企、能源成本飙升、长期利率上升以及美联储面临采取行动压力的环境下,劳动力市场稳定至少少了一件值得担心的事情。
In an environment of elevated inflation, surging energy costs, rising long-term interest rates and pressure on the Fed to do something about it, labor market stability is at least one less thing to worry about.
甚至在9月份数据疲软之前,美联储领导层就发出了明确的信号,表明他们不愿意在本月末的会议上再次加息。劳动力市场没有收紧可能证实了这一观点。
Even before the soft September numbers, Fed leadership was sending clear signals that they are disinclined to raise interest rates again at a meeting late this month. The absence of labor market tightening likely affirms that view.
快速赶上:美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊昨天表示,就进一步加息做出判断“可能需要更多时间”。他谈到了等待“掌握更多数据”然后再采取下一步行动的价值。
Catch up quick: Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson said yesterday that coming to a judgment about further rate hikes "may take more time." He spoke of the value of waiting to have "more data in hand" before making another move.
此前,纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯本周早些时候表示,由于9月份加息,“没有必要紧迫,我们有时间收集更多信息。威廉姆斯表示:“更多数据的积累应该能够更清晰地了解经济的潜在趋势以及实现我们目标的相关风险,从而适当制定货币政策。”
Those comments came on the heels of New York Fed president John Williams saying earlier in the week that thanks to the September rate hike, "there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." "The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals — and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy," Williams said.
字里行间:副主席和纽约联邦储备银行行长传统上是货币政策问题上领导三巨头的一部分(与美联储主席一起),因此他们的言论具有额外的分量。
Between the lines: The vice chair and New York Fed chief traditionally serve as part of a leadership triumvirate (along with the Fed chairman) on monetary policy matters, so their words carry extra weight.
虽然主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)在选择杰斐逊或威廉姆斯方面没有任何作用,而且美联储的领导层在他的主席任期内将如何发展也是一个悬而未决的问题,但很难想象杰斐逊和威廉姆斯会发出如此明确的短期政策信号。
While chairman Kevin Warsh had no role in selecting either Jefferson or Williams, and it's been an open question how the Fed's leadership might evolve under his chairmanship, it's hard to imagine Jefferson and Williams freelancing with such explicit near-term policy signals.
相反,这看起来像是一项协调一致的努力,旨在抑制市场对10月底加息的预期,鉴于今天的数据中没有看到劳动力市场紧缩,这一方向更加合理。
Rather, this looks like a coordinated effort to pump the brakes on market expectations of a late October rate hike, a direction that is even more justifiable given the absence of labor market tightening seen in today's data.
底线:美联储目前更关注通胀,而不是就业市场,9月份通胀数据仍在公布。但疲软的就业增长数据、负面修正和失业率上升都表明人们对加息有耐心。
The bottom line: The Fed is more laser-focused on inflation right now than the job market, and September inflation data is still to come. But the soft job growth numbers, negative revisions, and uptick in unemployment all point to patience on rate hikes.