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中东石油价格几乎回到伊朗战争前水平的三点原因Three reasons Middle East oil is nearly back to pre-Iran war levels

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作者:托马斯·科普兰、贝基·戴尔数据显示,尽管伊朗仍对试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只实施诸多限制,但目前从中东地区输出的石油量已几乎恢复至战前水平。

By Thomas Copeland and Becky Dale The volume of oil flowing from the Middle East region has almost returned to pre-war levels, data shows, despite the continued restrictions Iran is placing on vessels attempting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

在美以与伊朗爆发战争并导致这一重要航道实际关闭七个月后,海事情报公司Kpler称,9月最后一周,中东地区的日均石油输出量达到了战前基准水平的92%。分析人士认为,石油输出量的回升主要归功于以下三个因素:

Seven months after the US-Israel war with Iran led to the effective closure of the critical waterway, the maritime intelligence firm Kpler said that in the final week of September, daily oil flow from the Middle East reached 92% of its pre-war baseline.

  1. 美国军方为船只提供护航服务;

  2. 使用穿梭油轮在海峡内完成原油转运;

Analysts attribute the rebounding flow of oil to three key factors:

  1. 通过输油管道绕过霍尔木兹海峡。不过,鉴于伊朗可能加大攻击力度或美国政策发生变动的风险,部分专家对这些措施的可持续性表示担忧。

Ships being escorted with US military assistance Using shuttle tankers through the strait for transfer to different vessels Bypassing the strait using pipelines But some experts have questioned the sustainability of these measures, given the risk of escalating Iranian attacks or a change in US policy.

据Kpler统计,9月份约有40%的中东地区石油出口并未经过霍尔木兹海峡,而是通过陆上管道输送至红海或阿曼湾的港口,这一比例较战前17%的水平有了显著提升。

About 40% of the total oil exported from the region in September bypassed the strait and exited via overland pipelines to ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, up from 17% before the war, according to Kpler.

然而,自7月份美国重新实施海上封锁措施后,伊朗的石油出口已陷入停滞状态。

Oil exports from Iran, however, have ground to a halt after the reimposition of a US naval blockade in July.

自6月中旬起,美国军方便开始为通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供支援;美国海军数据显示,9月份获得美军协助的船只数量较8月份增加了三分之一。

The US military has been supporting ships as they pass through the Strait of Hormuz since at least mid-June and US Navy data shows the number of vessels assisted by US forces is up by a third in September compared with August.

安全咨询公司EOS Risk Group的高级情报分析师马丁·凯利向BBC Verify表示,美国的支援形式主要是“为船只提供空中掩护”,包括发出预警以及拦截来自无人机、导弹或小型船只的潜在威胁。

Martin Kelly, senior intelligence analyst at security firm EOS Risk Group, told BBC Verify that US support is primarily in the form of "air support to ships", including through issuing warnings and intercepting incoming threats from drones, missiles or boats.

不过,那些选择沿阿曼海岸行驶、走美国推荐的南部航道而非申请使用伊朗控制的北部航道的船只,依然屡屡遭到袭击。

But ships moving through the US-recommended southern route of the strait near the coast of Oman, rather than seeking permission to use Iran's northern route, continue to be targeted.

根据武装冲突地点和事件数据冲突监测机构的数据,9月份伊朗对商业航运的成功袭击数量是自3月份以来最多的。

September saw the highest number of successful Iranian attacks on commercial shipping since March, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data conflict monitor.

Kpler高级石油分析师Naveen Das表示,由于伊朗局势进一步升级的风险以及美国中期选举可能产生的影响,市场石油市场“不相信我们会保持这种现状”。

Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst from Kpler, said the market oil market "doesn't trust that we're going stay in this status quo" because of the risk of further Iranian escalation and the possible impact of the US midterm elections.

据库珀称,现在通过海峡的大部分石油都通过60多艘大型油轮来回移动的“穿梭系统”运输。

Most of the oil passing through the strait now moves via a "shuttle system" of more than 60 large oil tankers moving back and forth, according to Kpler.

库珀说,8月份通过该海峡的原油中有70%以上从这些“穿梭油轮”转移到阿曼湾的其他船只上。

More than 70% of the crude oil which passed through the strait in August was transferred from these "shuttle tankers" onto other vessels in the Gulf of Oman, Kpler said.

BBC Verify分析了卫星图像,这些图像似乎显示这些船对船的转移,似乎更能免受伊朗的攻击,发生在阿曼港口城市苏哈尔海岸附近。

BBC Verify has analysed satellite imagery which appears to show these ship-to-ship transfers, seemingly more protected from Iranian attack, taking place off the coast of the Omani port city, Sohar.

但马丁·凯利说,“这些船只能持续多久是个问题”,特别是在对它们的袭击仍在继续的情况下。9月24日拍摄的图像显示,六对船只在港口附近停靠或配对。

But there is a "question over how long these ships can last", said Martin Kelly, particularly as attacks on them continue. Imagery taken on 24 September shows six pairs of ships docked or paired together near the port.

根据开普勒的数据,在截至9月30日的一周内,阿曼湾平均每天有400多万桶石油从一艘船转移到另一艘船。

An average of more than four million barrels of oil per day was transferred from ship to ship in the Gulf of Oman over in the week to 30 September, according to Kpler.

总体而言,在此期间,平均每天有1200万桶石油通过该海峡,而战前的基线为1700万桶石油。

Overall, an average of 12 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait over this period, compared with a pre-war baseline of 17 million.

海湾石油出口国还通过管道陆路出口更多原油来回应伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的袭击。

Oil exporting countries in the Gulf have also responded to Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz by exporting more crude oil overland via pipelines.

据Kpler称,目前只有不到20%的原油从沙特阿拉伯东西管道末端的红海港口离开该地区,该管道每天的出口量超过400万桶。

Just under 20% of crude is now leaving the region from ports on the Red Sea at the end of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which is recording exports of more than four million barrels per day, according to Kpler.

库珀表示,伊朗支持的伊拉克代理人对这条管道发动袭击三周后,沙特阿拉伯现在正在“全力”通过该管道出口。

Three weeks after an attack on this pipeline blamed on Iran-backed proxies in Iraq, Saudi Arabia is now exporting through the pipeline at "full stretch", according to Kpler.

Kpler的数据显示,来自该地区的近四分之一的原油现在通过管道通过霍尔木兹海峡运往阿曼湾沿岸的码头,特别是阿拉伯联合酋长国(阿联酋)的富查伊拉市。

Almost a quarter of all crude flowing from the region is now being piped past the Strait of Hormuz to terminals along the Gulf of Oman, particularly the city of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kpler's data shows.

来自Kpler的纳文·达斯表示,管道使用的增加可能会成为“新常态”,因为“我们生活在一个海湾国家和伊朗恢复相对和谐的世界中,似乎不太可能”。

Naveen Das from Kpler said this increased use of pipelines is likely to become the "new normal" because "it seems very improbable that we live in a world whereby the Gulf countries and Iran go back to being relatively harmonious".

库珀数据显示,美国7月中旬重新实施封锁后,伊朗的石油出口量已从战争开始前的每天170万桶降至几乎为零。

Oil exports from Iran have fallen almost to zero following the re-imposition of a US blockade in mid-July, down from 1.7 million barrels a day before the war began, Kpler data shows.

根据美国倡导和监测组织“反对伊朗核联盟”的船舶跟踪数据和分析,目前斯里兰卡海岸有20艘悬挂伊朗国旗的空油轮,由于美国的封锁,无法返回海湾地区。

There are 20 empty Iran-flagged tankers currently off the coast of Sri Lanka, unable to return to the Gulf due to the US blockade, according to ship-tracking data and analysis from the US-based advocacy and monitoring organisation United Against Nuclear Iran.

虽然中东的原油流量已恢复至几乎正常水平,但液化天然气和喷气燃料等石油产品的出口仍远低于冲突前的数量。

While crude oil flow from the Middle East has resumed to almost normal levels, exports of liquified natural gas and oil products like jet fuel and have remained well below pre-conflict volumes.

上周平均通过霍尔木兹海峡的加工石油产品不到100万桶,低于战争开始前每天350万桶。您希望BBC Verify调查什么?

Fewer than a million barrels of processed oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz on average in the last week, down from 3.5 million per day before the war began. What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?