亚历山大·韦伯、雅娜·兰多和马克·施勒尔斯报道称，随着收益率飙升、要求欧洲央行采取行动的 pressure 不断加剧，该央行可能被卷入法国债券市场动荡的漩涡。
By Alexander Weber, Jana Randow and Mark Schroers The European Central Bank risks being pulled into the vortex of France’s bond-market troubles as surging yields raise pressure on officials to act.
投资者持有法国债券相较于同期限德国联邦债券所要求的溢价已升至欧洲债务危机以来的最高水平。对于市场动荡须恶化到何种程度，欧洲央行才会动用迄今尚未启用的“救火工具”，相关猜测正不断升温。
With the premium investors charge to hold French securities over equivalent German bunds hitting the highest since the European debt crisis, speculation is mounting on how far turmoil would need to intensify before the institution steps in with its as-yet-unused firefighting tool.
2022年意大利债券市场遭遇崩盘时，欧洲央行选择设立传导保护工具，以避免陷入这种局面。该工具的设立本身就是为了遏制金融动荡。
That’s a situation the ECB wanted to avoid when it opted during an Italian bond blowout in 2022 to create the Transmission Protection Instrument, whose very existence was meant to keep financial ructions at bay.
更令欧洲央行官员尴尬的是，这项工具原本是为应对无端且无序、足以扭曲货币政策的市场波动而设计的。鉴于法国财政赤字超标、预算陷入僵局，并因此成为关注焦点，欧洲央行可能很难认定该国的情况符合启动该工具的条件。
Even more awkward for officials is that they designed the tool to counter unwarranted and disorderly market moves that distort monetary policy — conditions that might be hard to meet given the missed deficits and budget stalemate that have thrown the spotlight on France.
丹斯克银行首席策略师彼得·克里斯蒂安森表示：“鉴于当前财政状况和政治不确定性，利差扩大是合理的。但这也使市场对欧洲央行的态度变得复杂。如果这种情况妨碍货币政策传导，就应由欧洲央行出手；如果没有，就让市场自行对相关因素进行定价，不要干预。”欧洲央行及其他央行面临的一个关键问题是，它们必须避免给外界留下帮助政府为财政赤字融资的印象。
“The spread widening is warranted given the fiscal stance and political uncertainty,” said Piet Christiansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank. “But that’s also what complicates the market view on the ECB. If it hampers monetary-policy transmission, it’s a job for the ECB. If not, let’s let the market price the drivers without intervening.”A key problem for the ECB and peers is that they want to avoid the impression of helping governments finance their deficits.
由于欧洲央行官员已公开表示，传导保护工具仅用于应对无端的市场波动，若用其缓解市场对法国债务的担忧，就可能损害其公信力。
Since officials have publicly stated that the TPI is only meant for unwarranted market action, using it to ease concerns over France’s debt would risk tarnishing credibility.
另一个问题是，受中东冲突后续影响，欧元区通胀率正逼近4%。俄乌战争爆发后债券价格飙升时，官员们停止了一切债券购买。如今若逆转这一做法，从而放松融资条件，就与他们在6月和9月实施的加息相悖。
Another issue is that euro-zone inflation is approaching 4% due to the fallout of conflict in the Middle East. Officials stopped all bond purchases when prices spiked following the Ukraine war, and reversing course now — and thereby easing financing conditions — would be at odds with the interest-rate increases they enacted in June and September.
一些人仍认为，结束所谓的量化紧缩可能是安抚市场的第一步。在这种政策下，欧洲央行让所持债券到期，不再对其续作。
Some still see an end to so-called quantitative tightening, under which the ECB lets its stock of bond holdings mature, as a possible first step to calm markets.
安联贸易经济学主管安娜·博阿塔在彭博电视台表示：“显然在这方面需要采取一些行动。”“例如对法国来说，这意味着每月50亿欧元，实际上相当于新增发行量的20%。所以其影响不容忽视。”其他人则确信，欧洲央行别无选择，只能动用其政策“弹药”，尤其是在TPI启动条件确实赋予其一定裁量权的情况下。
“Clearly there’s something to do there,” Ana Boata, head of economics at Allianz Trade, told Bloomberg Television. “For France, for example, it’s €5 billion per month, which is actually 20% of the new issuance. So it’s not negligible.”Others are confident that the ECB will have little choice but to use its firepower, especially as the conditions for TPI do give it some discretion.
富达国际固定收益首席投资官马里昂·勒莫雷德克说：“欧洲央行正在密切掌握这一情况。他们一直在与市场参与者沟通，包括对冲基金。他们确实希望了解正在发生的情况，并准备采取一切必要措施，避免出现任何剧烈冲击。”迄今为止，政策制定者尚未表明愿意采取行动。当被问及可能动用TPI时，德国联邦银行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔本周表示，欧洲央行唯一关注的是2%的通胀率。
“The ECB is on top of this,” said Marion Le Morhedec, chief investment officer for fixed income at Fidelity International. “They’re talking to market participants all the time, including hedge funds. They really want to understand what’s happening and they are ready to do whatever it takes to avoid any big blow ups.”So far, policymakers haven’t given any indication that they’re willing to act. Questioned about a potential use of TPI, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said this week that the only focus of the ECB is 2% inflation.
“我在管委会的职责是完成交由我的使命，”他说，“您提到了一种工具，但我们还有其他几种工具。不过，这并不是由某些利差水平之类因素决定的。关键在于价格稳定。”与此同时，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德上月在都柏林发表讲话时，当时债券利差更窄，她似乎认为法国面临的压力不足为虑，同时强调需要考虑更广泛的背景。
“My job in the Governing Council is to fulfill my mandate,” he said. “You mentioned one, but we have several other tools. But it has nothing to do with maybe certain spread levels or things like that. It’s price stability.”Meanwhile ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking last month in Dublin at a time when the bond spread was narrower, appeared sanguine about the pressure on France, while stressing the broader context.
“我们没有看到任何无序波动，也没有看到任何紧张迹象，”她说。“这是一场影响所有债券的全球性波动，出于多种原因，尤其影响收益率曲线长端，但没有出现无序运作。”如果出现法国局势正在向同样高负债的邻国外溢的迹象，这一判断可能就更难维持。意大利相对于德国国债的利差也已上升，尽管仍远低于过去的水平。
“We don’t see any disorderly movement, we don’t see any tension,” she said. “This is a global movement that affects all bonds and particularly at the long end of the curve, for multiple reasons, but no disorderly functioning.”That position may become more difficult to keep if there are signs that France’s situation is spilling over into neighboring countries with similarly high debt levels. Italy has also seen its spreads over German bonds rise, though they’re still at a much lower level than in the past.
作为紧张情绪的一个可能信号，乔治娅·梅洛尼的政府本周对预算作了最后调整，削减一揽子国防开支，以将赤字收窄至欧盟设定的国内生产总值3%上限以下。法国明年仅计划将赤字从2026年的5.4%降至5%。
In a possible sign of nervousness, Giorgia Meloni’s government made a late tweak to its budget this week, paring pack defense spending to narrow its shortfall below the European Union’s 3%-of-output ceiling. France only plans to shrink its deficit to 5% next year from 5.4% in 2026.
芬兰央行行长奥利·雷恩强调，解决当前局势的责任在于各国政府。
Finnish central-bank governor Olli Rehn highlighted that the onus to solve the situation is on governments.
“更高的借贷成本、不断增长的支出需求和有限的财政回旋余地可能加剧主权风险，并暴露金融系统其他环节的脆弱性，”他周五在法兰克福说。“这些风险凸显了继续保持警惕并持续推进财政整固的必要性。”而法国央行行长埃马纽埃尔·穆兰也警告，对于欧元区第二大经济体，欧洲央行并没有“奇迹般的解决方案”。
“Higher borrowing costs, growing spending needs and limited fiscal room could increase sovereign risks and expose vulnerabilities elsewhere in the financial system,” he said in Frankfurt on Friday. “These risks underline the need for continued vigilance and for sustained fiscal consolidation.”And France’s own central bank chief, Emmanuel Moulin, has warned the ECB has no “miracle solution” for the euro area’s second-biggest economy.
不过，如果动荡不消退，欧洲央行承受的政治压力很可能将持续存在，尤其是考虑到传导保护工具（TPI）可能极具威力。
Then again, unless turmoil subsides, the political pressure on the ECB to do something about it is likely to persist — not least given that the firepower of the TPI could be highly effective.
“它从未经过检验，”Scope Ratings主权风险分析师艾科·西弗特说。“但从理论上讲，它是一项非常强大的工具。”
“It’s never been tested,” said Eiko Sievert, a sovereign analyst at Scope Ratings. “But in theory that is a very powerful tool.”