2026年10月3日，巴西圣巴巴拉杜奥埃斯特，自由党候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在大选前一天的竞选集会上向民众致意。路透社/亚历山大·梅内吉尼 发布时间：2026年10月3日晚10点23分 更新时间：同日晚10点23分 圣保罗消息：周六公布的CNT/MDA民调显示，在周日举行第一轮投票前，巴西总统卢拉对参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的领先优势有所缩小，此次选举很可能需要举行第二轮投票。
1 of 2 Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) greets people during a campaign rally, one day before the general election, in Santa Barbara do Oeste, Brazil, October 3, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini Published Oct 03, 2026, 10:23 PM Updated Oct 03, 2026, 10:23 PM Listen SAO PAULO, Oct 3 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Sunday's first-round vote, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Saturday, while also pointing to a tighter race in a likely runoff.
根据该民调，若直接进行第一轮投票，卢拉将获得43.1%的选民支持，紧随其后的是博索纳罗（38%）、奥古斯托·库里（3.2%）、罗纳尔多·卡伊阿多（3%）以及雷南·桑托斯（1.5%）。
In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 43.1% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (38%), Augusto Cury (3.2%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Renan Santos (1.5%), according to the poll.
- 在9月15日的民调中，卢拉的支持率为40.5%，博索纳罗为30.4%，库里为6%，卡伊阿多为3%，桑托斯为2.7%。
• A September 15 poll had Lula at 40.5%, Bolsonaro at 30.4%, Cury at 6%, Caiado at 3% and Santos at 2.7%
- 若仅计算那些明确表示不会投出废票或空白票的选民，卢拉的支持率则升至47.8%，博索纳罗为42.1%。
• Considering only projected valid votes, which exclude people telling the pollster they would leave their ballots blank or void somehow, Lula reached 47.8% voter support against Bolsonaro's 42.1%
- 如果周日的第一轮投票中没有任何候选人获得超过50%的有效选票，那么得票率最高的两位候选人将于10月25日进行第二轮决选。
• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the Sunday first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25
- 民调预测，若进入第二轮投票，卢拉将获得47.3%的支持率，而前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子弗拉维奥·博索纳罗则获得43.1%的支持。
• In a likely runoff, Lula would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 43.1% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said
- 在之前的调查中，卢拉在第二轮投票中的支持率曾以47.3%对40%领先于博索纳罗。
• In the previous survey, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 47.3% to 40% in the runoff