"They want to take the river and the beach, they want the rare earths… Don't give up your flag!" In a video released on September 23, set to the tune of a hit by Puerto Rican singer Bad Bunny, left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, who is running for a fourth term, warned of the geopolitical consequences if his far-right opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023), were to win Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, October 4.

The largest country in Latin America, and one of the last progressive strongholds in the region alongside Mexico, could then fall under the influence of Donald Trump's United States. "Brazil is no one's backyard," Lula declared in a speech at the United Nations in New York on September 22, warning of the risk of foreign interference in the election. On Thursday, October 1, Trump told the American press he was watching the vote "very closely." Despite the unprecedented geopolitical implications of the presidential election, the result, shaped more by domestic issues, remained highly uncertain.

Throughout the campaign, Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro have stayed neck and neck in the polls. According to the latest Datafolha estimates published Thursday, the incumbent president held a slight lead in the first round, with 42% of voting intentions compared to 38% for his rival. The narrow gap pointed to a likely runoff, scheduled for October 25. Overshadowed by this duel, the 11 other candidates failed to make an impact. You have 79.16% of this article left to read. The rest is forrs only.