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塞尔维亚分离主义者多迪克宣布在波斯尼亚选举中获胜,族裔紧张局势与欧盟希望相互碰撞Serb separatist Dodik declares victory in Bosnia vote as ethnic tensions, EU hopes collide

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波斯尼亚塞族民族主义政治家米洛拉德·多迪克宣布,其政党在周日举行的波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那选举中获胜。此次选举受到经济压力、该国加入欧盟的前景,以及自1992年至1995年残酷战争以来一直分裂该国的民族紧张局势的影响。

Bosnian Serb nationalist politician Milorad Dodik has declared victory for his party in an election in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Sunday that was shaped by economic pressures, the prospect of the Balkan nation joining the European Union and ethnic tensions that have divided the country since its brutal 1992–95 war.

多迪克是一名坚定的亲俄政治家。尽管他本人并未出现在选票上,但他主导了竞选活动,并以分裂主义言论加剧了社会分歧,引发了人们对波斯尼亚再次陷入动荡的担忧。

Dodik is a staunchly pro-Russia politician who, despite not appearing on the ballot, has dominated the campaign and inflamed divisions with separatist rhetoric that have sparked fears of renewed instability in Bosnia.

多迪克曾担任该国塞族占多数的实体——塞族共和国的总统。去年,他因违抗监督1995年结束战争的和平协议的国际特使的决定而被定罪,随后被禁止担任公职。

Formerly the president of the country’s Serb-majority entity of Republika Srpska, Dodik was banned from holding public office after being convicted last year of defying decisions by the international envoy overseeing the 1995 peace agreement that ended the war.

在已计票近90%的情况下,多迪克的盟友、右翼独立社会民主党联盟的泽尔贾·茨维亚诺维奇获得了超过55%的选票,赢得了该国三方总统制中的一个席位,领先其最接近的对手约30个百分点。

With nearly 90 per cent of votes counted, Dodik’s ally Zeljka Cvijanovic of the right-wing Alliance of Independent Social Democrats had more than 55 per cent of votes to take one of the three seats in the country’s tripartite presidency, leading her nearest opponent by around 30 percentage points.

多迪克在周日晚些时候的新闻发布会上表示,他的民族主义政党也将在塞族共和国议会中占据“绝对多数”,并将此次选举胜利归功于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在2024年的“辉煌胜利”以及俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的支持。

Speaking at a news conference late on Sunday, Dodik said his nationalist party would also hold a “vast majority” in Republika Srpska’s assembly, and credited US President Donald Trump’s “magnificent victory” in 2024 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s support for the election win.

多迪克说:“没有人应该要求我们改变我们的政治立场。我们不会放弃,而是将继续为我们的人民奋斗……我简直不敢相信我们如此彻底地赢得了胜利。”大约340万选民有资格选出该国多民族总统制的三名成员、国家议会的议员,以及该国两个实体的机构负责人:穆斯林占多数的波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那联邦,以及由塞族主导的塞族共和国。

“No one should ask us to change our politics,” Dodik said. “We will not give up, but continue for our people ... I cannot believe that we smashed it like this.”Around 3.4 million voters were eligible to choose the three members of the country’s multi-ethnic presidency, lawmakers for the national parliament, and heads of institutions for the country’s two entities: the Muslim-majority Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, which is dominated by ethnic Serbs.

周日计票工作完成超过94%后,来自波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那民族主义政党克罗地亚民主联盟的达里扬娜·菲利普维奇在总统职位的克罗地亚族席位上遥遥领先,而现任波斯尼亚克族总统成员、社会民主党人丹尼斯·贝奇罗维奇则与最接近的对手巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇之间的差距不足三个百分点。

With over 94 per cent of votes counted on Sunday, Darijana Filipovic of the nationalist Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina held a commanding lead for the Croat seat on the presidency, while incumbent Bosniak member of the presidency Denis Becirovic of the Social Democratic Party led his nearest opponent, Bakir Izetbegovic, by fewer than three percentage points.

在周日晚些时候,尽管所有选票尚未全部计完,菲利普维奇和贝奇罗维奇均已宣布自己获胜。

Both Filipovic and Becirovic declared victory in their races late on Sunday before all votes were counted.

波斯尼亚中央选举委员会表示,此次选举共有1,432,269张选票被投出,投票率为42%,比2022年波斯尼亚上一次选举下降了约8个百分点。

Bosnia’s Central Election Commission said 1,432,269 votes were cast in total, a turnout of 42 per cent that was down by around 8 per cent from Bosnia’s last election in 2022.

波斯尼亚拥有复杂的治理机构体系,这些机构是1995年美国斡旋的和平协议所设立的,旨在管理穆斯林波斯尼亚克族、东正教塞尔维亚族和天主教克罗地亚族之间的族群分歧,正是这些分歧引发了战争。

Bosnia has a complex web of governing institutions that were created by a US-brokered peace agreement in 1995 in an effort to manage the ethnic divisions between Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats that gave rise to the war.

然而,多迪克一直不断挑战这些制度的界限,公开对抗位于首都萨拉热窝的波斯尼亚中央政府,并推动塞尔维亚共和国从该国分离出去。

Yet Dodik has consistently tested those limits, openly defying Bosnia’s national government in the capital Sarajevo and making moves for Republika Srpska to separate from the country.

在周五晚间于塞尔维亚共和国行政首都巴尼亚卢卡举行的党内最后一次选举集会上,多迪克对支持者表示,波斯尼亚“已经死了”。

At his party’s final election rally on Friday night in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska’s administrative capital, Dodik told supporters that Bosnia “is dead”.

“这个国家已经不可能存在了。它毫无意义,”多迪克在集会上说道。俄罗斯大使伊戈尔·哈拉布科夫也出席了此次集会。

“It is an impossible country. It doesn’t make any sense,” Dodik said at the rally, which was also attended by Russian ambassador Igor Khalabukov.

这种政治和族群分歧——在该国,波斯尼亚克族、塞尔维亚族和克罗地亚族大多按照族群背景投票——阻碍了波斯尼亚加入欧盟的进程,尽管欧盟一直努力鼓励该国分裂的领导人共同推进改革。

Such political and ethnic divisions – in which the country’s Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats largely vote along ethnic lines – have blocked Bosnia’s progress towards joining the EU despite the bloc’s efforts to encourage the country’s divided leaders to work together for reform.

分析人士德拉甘·布尔萨克表示,尽管多迪克在近30年来首次没有出现在选票上,但他“仍然掌控着局势。他无处不在”。

Dragan Bursac, an analyst, said that despite Dodik not appearing on the ballot for the first time in nearly 30 years, he “is still in command. He is everywhere”.

“很明显,这些禁止他参与政治生活的措施并未奏效,而他正在利用这一点,”布尔萨克说道。

“It is obvious that these measures to ban him from political life are not working, and he is using them,” Bursac said.

作为欧洲最贫穷的国家之一,波斯尼亚在1992年战争爆发数十年后仍在艰难恢复。当时,该国宣布脱离塞尔维亚族主导的前南斯拉夫独立,塞族随即拿起武器,试图建立自己的国家并加入塞尔维亚。这场冲突造成超过10万人死亡,数百万人流离失所。

One of the poorest countries in Europe, Bosnia is still struggling to recover decades after the war that started in 1992, after the country declared independence from the Serb-led former Yugoslavia and ethnic Serbs took up arms to carve out their own state and join Serbia. The conflict killed more than 100,000 people and displaced millions.

波斯尼亚的战时创伤最近因塞尔维亚及波斯尼亚塞族对已故战时军队指挥官拉特科·姆拉迪奇的公开致敬而再度被揭开。姆拉迪奇于8月下旬在服刑期间去世,他因种族灭绝及其他战争罪行被判终身监禁。

Bosnia’s wartime wounds were recently revived by a public homage in Serbia and among Bosnian Serbs to the wartime army commander Ratko Mladic, who died in late August while serving a life sentence for genocide and other war crimes.

尽管联合国法庭裁定姆拉迪奇对1995年斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀中8000多名穆斯林男子和男孩的屠杀及其他暴行负有责任,但波斯尼亚塞族仍视其为英雄。

Bosnian Serbs view Mladic as a hero despite his conviction by a UN court over the massacre of more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica in 1995, and other atrocities.

周日的选举是波斯尼亚首次使用选民电子身份识别和选票扫描仪,以防止违规行为或有组织的选民操纵,此前这些行为曾引发人们对选举公平性的质疑。

Sunday’s election was the first time Bosnia used electronic identification of voters and ballot scanners to prevent irregularities or organised voter manipulation, which have cast doubt on the fairness of previous elections.

周日上午,美联社记者报道称,由于新数字技术出现故障,多个投票站无法按时开始投票。波斯尼亚选举委员会周日晚些时候宣布,当天早些时候出现中断的部分投票站将被允许在晚上7点截止后继续开放。

On Sunday morning, Associated Press journalists reported seeing multiple polling places where voting could not begin on time because of difficulties with the new digital technology. Bosnia’s election commission announced late on Sunday that some polling stations that had experienced disruptions earlier in the day would be permitted to remain open past the 7pm cut-off.

周日,巴尼亚卢卡的一些选民表示担心新的数字系统可能会让年长选民感到困惑。塞族共和国内政部在一份声明中表示,在该实体1957个投票站中,有201个出现了延误。美联社报道

On Sunday, some voters in Banja Luka expressed concern that the new digital systems could confuse older voters. Republika Srpska’s interior ministry said in a statement that of 1,957 polling stations in the entity, there had been delays at 201. By Associated Press